Have you heard? The Establishment is conspiring to steal the GOP nomination from Donald Trump! It’s true. I read it somewhere. There have been secret meetings all over the country of Establishment types plotting how best to deny what the voters want, and what they want is Donald Trump!
At least, that’s how the story goes from the paranoid and the media desperate to attract them to their shows.
Here’s some breaking news for you: If Donald Trump acquires 1,237 delegates to the GOP convention he will be the nominee. If he doesn’t, he may not be the nominee. It’s that simple.
The requirement to become the Republican nominee is plain as day – get a “majority” of the delegates to vote for you and you’ve won. For conspiracy nuts, the word “majority” is replaced with “the most.” But “the most” is known as a plurality. A plurality is not a majority. And if you don’t get a majority, you are not guaranteed the nomination.
There are no smoke-filled rooms where billionaires and The Establishment decide the fate of the world or the party. That’s simple-minded pap spewed by people who either are ignorant of reality or preaching to the ignorant in hopes of keeping them as readers, listeners or viewers.
Sorry, it’s true.
Yes, billionaires have influence and access, but you’d have to be Bernie Sanders to believe they run the show.
Mitt Romney wasn’t the GOP nominee in 2012 because billionaires made him the victor; he was the nominee because he amassed more than a majority of delegates. In other words, voters chose him.
It’s not a conspiracy; it’s math.
If Trump doesn’t get to 1,237 delegates, he will have to work out what he so humbly tells the world he’s best at – a deal.
If no one has a majority of delegates, it’s game on. Those are the rules, and he knew that going in.
In 1860, Abraham Lincoln was basically an also-ran for the Republican nomination. But no candidate had a majority of delegates, and after multiple ballots, Lincoln emerged with the victory.
Lincoln and his allies were able to persuade delegates to switch their votes to him; in other words, he cut deals. He played by the rules.
Donald Trump knows that’s how it works; he simply doesn’t like it. So he and his media sycophants have set out to manipulate people into thinking anything short of his being named the nominee would be an injustice.
The simple fact is if Trump doesn’t get to 1,237 delegates the odds are against him being the nominee. Not because of some conspiracy hatched in a steakhouse or some island somewhere, but because of Donald Trump himself.
There are not many people left in the country Donald Trump hasn’t insulted. He cut deals with Chris Christie and Ben Carson to get them to back him and bring their delegates along. Unfortunately for Trump, they bring only eight delegates – all won by Carson. Unless Trump gets to 1,229 delegates, he’ll need to appeal to a wider audience – and that’s provided Carson’s delegates deliver.
But to whom outside of his supporters does Trump appeal? No one. You’ve either bought in or you’re not interested.
Trump simply can’t be anything but Trump, and part of being Trump is ridiculing anyone who doesn’t fall in line. There is a large percentage, perhaps a majority, of GOP delegates who won’t fall in line; who don’t believe a man who can’t be bound by adult behavior will be bound by the Constitution. Barring something dramatic, they won’t go to Trump on a second ballot or any ballot after that.
And it will all be well within the rules; not “stealing.”
If his sycophants threaten to walk out of the convention if the person with the most delegates but not a majority isn’t the nominee, I say let them go. They and Trump aren’t interested in the rules. They know the rules. They’re interested in an outcome. For Trump it’s about power; for the media lapdogs it’s about access and ratings. It’s not about the country for either.
There are a couple of simple ways to avoid all of this: 1) Trump could win 1,237 bound delegates and secure the nomination on the first ballot; or 2) Trump and company could stop lying and being such jackasses and start trying to win people over. Neither seems possible at this point.
So as primary season rolls on to Cleveland, it’s important to know you’re being lied to, lied about and played. The average primary voter may not know it, but the average GOP delegate does. If Trump doesn’t reach a majority there is no expectation or obligation he be the nominee. Being the frontrunner is not the same as being the winner.
In the end, what made Donald Trump might be his undoing. His attitude and actions, although entertaining to his followers, have isolated him. If he goes down it won’t be a conspiracy; it will be completely fair and his own fault. Actions have consequences, even for billionaires.
To paraphrase Jeremiah Wright – his chickens may be coming home to roost.