It's been nearly three weeks since former President Donald Trump announced that he had been indicted in the classified documents investigation. On June 8, the day of the announcement on Trump's Truth Social network, the former president's lead over top challenger Gov. Ron DeSantis was 30.3 points in the RealClearPolitics average of national polls. Today, Trump's lead over DeSantis is 30.6 points. A federal indictment, on top of a local prosecutor's indictment in New York City, seems not to have affected Trump's national poll numbers at all.
By the old standards of politics, it makes no sense. How could Trump be indicted twice and not take a hit in the polls? When the Manhattan indictment came down, many Republicans noted that it was weak and apparently politically motivated. They were not surprised when it not only didn't hurt Trump's polling but, in fact, helped it significantly.
Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg announced the indictment on March 30. In the three months before that, Trump's lead over DeSantis hovered at around 15 points in the RCP average. After the indictment, Trump's lead essentially doubled, to about 30 points. And now, three weeks after a second indictment -- a more serious federal indictment -- Trump's lead seems to be holding steady at 30 points.
Some observers believe the true import of the indictments, particularly the federal indictment, simply hasn't been felt yet. That will come later, they believe, as the case works its way through the legal system and more evidence emerges. Others believe the next indictment, if there is one -- a federal indictment related to Trump's actions leading up to Jan. 6 -- could do real damage to Trump. And some believe yet another indictment -- a local charge in Fulton County, Georgia, over Trump's efforts to overturn 2020 election results in that state -- will finally do it.
Some expert practitioners in politics have a simpler reaction. "No one knows the answer," said one top GOP strategist. But they still have ideas.
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Trump's support is now at 52.1% in the RealClearPolitics average. A number of observers believe that the first 30% or so is hardcore support for Trump -- voters who will not leave Trump and will not vote for anyone else. But they believe the other 20% or so is soft support, people who like Trump, but might, depending on what happens, be convinced to vote for someone else. What those observers don't know is what circumstances might cause those voters to change.
They also don't know how any damage to Trump might play out with the other candidates. Would DeSantis benefit? Someone else? They don't know.
Here's one thing from a veteran Republican strategist who is not affiliated with any campaign. Citing private polling and focus groups, he said this: "One hundred percent of Republican primary voters, including those who are not voting for Trump and do not like Trump, believe that Democrats are unfairly weaponizing and abusing our system of justice by going after Trump, and not Hillary or Biden. EVERYONE agrees with that -- even people who won't vote for Trump and think he is guilty of mishandling documents."
That makes for a very complicated situation for Trump's Republican opponents. They cannot appear to side with prosecutors -- federal or local in New York or Georgia -- without alienating a large number of GOP voters. And yet they want to appeal to those soft Trump supporters who might be persuaded to vote for them.
That's why we've seen Republican candidates either avoid the topic of Trump's indictments or make carefully calibrated, exquisitely diplomatic statements about them. Every Republican candidate other than Trump is trying to find the magic formula for handling the Trump question. So far, no one seems to have succeeded.
(Byron York is chief political correspondent for The Washington Examiner. For a deeper dive into many of the topics Byron covers, listen to his podcast, The Byron York Show, available on the Ricochet Audio Network at ricochet.com/series/byron-york-show and everywhere else podcasts are found.)
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