The special election in Pennsylvania tonight gets better and better. Republican Tim Burns and Democrat Mark Critz are within a point of each other in the polls, and a strong showing is expected to benefit Critz. That's because Republican's are already mobilized, and stronger Democratic turnout could work in their favor. From Geraghty
The sense is that this is Tim Burns has run a good campaign and now has to overcome the tough demographics of the district; if turnout is low, Burns should win; if turnout is medium, it will be close; and if turnout is high, Democrat Mark Critz should win.
...I’m told not to worry if the earliest returns, heavily from Johnstown, favor Critz; Washington County and the Pittsburgh suburbs should be better for Burns, but their results will probably be reported later in the evening.