In case you missed this clip, which Rebecca referenced in her Wednesday post, it's a sight to behold. Watch as CNN's Henry Enten -- a smart elections analyst who tends to be a straight-shooter in my experience, regardless of his personal views -- telling the network's audience what it doesn't want to hear. Most media outlets have been doing everything in their power to help Democrats avoid midterm punishment, hyping abortion and other issues as they attempt to steer the 2022 narrative into more hospitable political territory for their preferred party.
How's that going, with the election just over one month away? Enten doesn't sugarcoat matters:
A new poll is raising questions about what issues voters care about the most. @ForecasterEnten joins us to break down the latest: pic.twitter.com/zZZeGhId3H
— New Day (@NewDay) October 4, 2022
Gallup’s latest data shows that 48% of Americans believe the Republican Party is best equipped, while 37% believe it is the Democratic Party. This 11-point Republican edge is one of the best they have ever had. Looking at 20 midterm elections since 1946 when this question was asked, only once has the Republican Party had a larger advantage on this question. That was in 1946 when Republicans had a 17 point lead on the Democrats. Republicans had a net gain of 55 House seats in the 1946 election. And while the correlation is far from perfect (+0.7 on a scale of -1 to 1) between House seats won by the Republican Party and how they stood against the Democrats on the most important issue question, it is very much existent. Take a look at all elections since 1946 in which there was a Democratic president. Republicans ended up with 230 seats on average in the five elections when they led on the question of who Americans trusted more on the issue most important to them. This included 1946 when they won 246 seats.
He also highlighted a new Monmouth national survey, which tracked the top issues in voters' minds. Inflation and crime are at the very top of the list, portending a potentially significant electoral advantage for the GOP (which is +3 on the generic ballot in the poll, a ten point swing from August). Abortion, which Democrats have been distorting for months while side-stepping their own extremism, has receded to a statistical tie with infrastructure:
percentage of americans saying each issue is important (monmouth national poll)
— Logan Dobson (@LoganDobson) October 5, 2022
inflation: 82%
crime: 72%
elections/voting: 70%
jobs/unemployment: 68%
immigration: 67%
infrastructure: 57%
abortion: 56% https://t.co/h3m7TuDmGo
Part of the shift away from Democrats is coming from center-right Hispanics, who are becoming Republicans:
This was maybe the most fascinating finding from our recent NBC News/Telemundo poll:
— Mark Murray (@mmurraypolitics) October 5, 2022
Conservative Latinos went from D+9 in congressional preference in 2012 (per our merged polls), to R+56 now.
That's a net 65-pt swing https://t.co/trrTJNWc88 pic.twitter.com/eY7polS34m
Will this apparent rising red tide lift all, or at least some, boats in crucial Senate races? I asked Dr. Mehmet Oz about the pivotal Pennsylvania contest, and he had a lot to say. I really recommend listening to this discussion. As I've said before, I haven't been much of an Oz fan, but I was admittedly impressed with his energy, message discipline, and smooth, engaging communication style. Can he finish the comeback he's been working on for weeks? It's looking like a nail-biter, but he thinks he can:
[Fetterman] doesn’t really campaign much. You know, he’ll go out once a week and do a public statement, but he won’t take questions. He has not yet answered questions from voters on the campaign trail. Has not answered questions from press on the campaign trail. Hasn’t agreed to a debate with me until the very end of this month when absentee ballots are already out in Pennsylvania. And so, he’s actually hiding and trying to run the clock out. And although he sort of addresses these criticisms, up until recently he’s just been hoping that, you know, people wouldn’t get it. But Pennsylvanians are smart, they’re getting it...We’re going to win this race. The numbers are actually quite close. And for a bunch of reasons, I’m confident that we will prevail...We’re going to, either way, prevail. And our message is on target. We have a very good game plan as we head into the final weeks and I’m looking forward to closing it out.
By the way, just a few days ago, I asked whether Florida might be turning into a blowout. Well, I'll leave you with this:
?? FLORIDA POLL By Mason Dixon
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 6, 2022
GOVERNOR
(R) Ron DeSantis 52% (+11)
(D) Charlie Crist 41%
ATTORNEY GENERAL
(R) Ashley Moody 50% (+13)
(D) Aramis Ayala 37%
AG COMMISSIONER
(R) Wilton Simpson 47% (+13)
(D) Naomi Blemur 34%
09/26-09/28 | 800 LV | MoE ±3.5%https://t.co/ekldHFiLXA pic.twitter.com/Z4wV84zTbO
I'd still guess DeSantis ends up in the high single-digits, with Rubio not far behind (this particular poll has Rubio 'only' up six), but the possibility for an even more historic outcome appears to be in the offing down in the Sunshine State. One more thing -- LOL at this awful ad, and anyone who thinks it's effective:
This is how to go on offense on the economy and inflation. Imagine the Spanish version running in states like AZ?
— Rachel Bitecofer ???????????? (@RachelBitecofer) October 5, 2022
pic.twitter.com/3pE0oATbLw
