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New Poll: Florida Turning Into GOP Blowout?

I'll confess to a dash of confirmation bias in reviewing this brand new survey out of Florida, as it reflects the approximate margins that I've been privately anticipating for months.  It's just one poll, and some other data shows both races -- especially the Senate race -- tighter.  And there are still roughly five weeks left in this campaign, so one never knows what might happen.  Absolutely nothing is assured.  

With those caveats firmly in place, behold:


If reasonably close to accurate, these are blowout-level numbers for a battleground state like Florida, which has become decidedly redder over the last few years (from late last month):

The Republican Party of Florida continued to extend its voter registration edge in August, holding a nearly 270,000-voter advantage over the state Democratic Party, according to data posted Wednesday on the state Division of Elections website. The state had 5,233,366 registered Republicans on Aug. 31 and 4,963,722 registered Democrats. On July 25, the final day to register for the August primary elections, Republicans held a nearly 229,000-voter advantage over Democrats. The new data indicate the number of registered Democrats increased by only 1,658 voters between July 25 and Aug. 31, while Republicans gained 42,348...Democrats traditionally held a registration edge in Florida, but the GOP took the lead last year.

That actually understates the scope of the shift, I'd argue.  As recently as 2010, Democrats enjoyed a registration advantage of more than half-a-million voters in the state.  That gap was even larger (approximately 700,000) in 2008.  In other words, Republicans have gained nearly one million voters in Florida since Obama's first election.  That's staggering.  Add in an election cycle that may be drifting back into 'red wave' territory, even with all the disclaimers above still active, and the survey findings above are at least plausible.  I'd argue that DeSantis was in very solid shape for re-election even over the summer, when GOP prospects appeared to be receding.  Rubio also remained the favorite the whole time, though some numbers showed his contest too close for comfort against a well-funded opponent.  But perhaps in the final stretch of the election, voters are being reminded of what a shape-shifting empty vessel Charlie Crist is, while Val Demings is unable to run away from her reflexively partisan voting record.

DeSantis, especially, has also been thrust into an apolitical leadership role, amid a terrible natural disaster that has hit the state.  Some of the knocks on him are that he's not terribly warm or emotionally relatable, and that his governance is overly partisan, perhaps as he looks ahead to future ambitions.  Before, during, and after Hurricane Ian, he's demonstrated strong, nonpartisan leadership that has taken the edges off of those critiques:


But he's still more than capable of marshaling facts to push back against the types of narratives the press cannot help but try to seed:


Biden, by the way, finally ended up phoning DeSantis, who shamed the president by taking the high road, and the two have been cooperating as necessary ever since.  As has so often been the case, the uber-hostile media finds ways to accidentally help DeSantis, like this sort of derangement over an entirely reasonable admonition against lawlessness and looting:


In contrast to the way Florida officials have been handling the devastating storm and its aftermath, I'll leave you with this:

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