I'll confess to a dash of confirmation bias in reviewing this brand new survey out of Florida, as it reflects the approximate margins that I've been privately anticipating for months. It's just one poll, and some other data shows both races -- especially the Senate race -- tighter. And there are still roughly five weeks left in this campaign, so one never knows what might happen. Absolutely nothing is assured.
With those caveats firmly in place, behold:
Siena poll of Florida: DeSantis+8, Rubio+7 https://t.co/YRpqYTvGJB pic.twitter.com/JtfvnNXPtX
— John McCormack (@McCormackJohn) October 3, 2022
If reasonably close to accurate, these are blowout-level numbers for a battleground state like Florida, which has become decidedly redder over the last few years (from late last month):
The Republican Party of Florida continued to extend its voter registration edge in August, holding a nearly 270,000-voter advantage over the state Democratic Party, according to data posted Wednesday on the state Division of Elections website. The state had 5,233,366 registered Republicans on Aug. 31 and 4,963,722 registered Democrats. On July 25, the final day to register for the August primary elections, Republicans held a nearly 229,000-voter advantage over Democrats. The new data indicate the number of registered Democrats increased by only 1,658 voters between July 25 and Aug. 31, while Republicans gained 42,348...Democrats traditionally held a registration edge in Florida, but the GOP took the lead last year.
That actually understates the scope of the shift, I'd argue. As recently as 2010, Democrats enjoyed a registration advantage of more than half-a-million voters in the state. That gap was even larger (approximately 700,000) in 2008. In other words, Republicans have gained nearly one million voters in Florida since Obama's first election. That's staggering. Add in an election cycle that may be drifting back into 'red wave' territory, even with all the disclaimers above still active, and the survey findings above are at least plausible. I'd argue that DeSantis was in very solid shape for re-election even over the summer, when GOP prospects appeared to be receding. Rubio also remained the favorite the whole time, though some numbers showed his contest too close for comfort against a well-funded opponent. But perhaps in the final stretch of the election, voters are being reminded of what a shape-shifting empty vessel Charlie Crist is, while Val Demings is unable to run away from her reflexively partisan voting record.
DeSantis, especially, has also been thrust into an apolitical leadership role, amid a terrible natural disaster that has hit the state. Some of the knocks on him are that he's not terribly warm or emotionally relatable, and that his governance is overly partisan, perhaps as he looks ahead to future ambitions. Before, during, and after Hurricane Ian, he's demonstrated strong, nonpartisan leadership that has taken the edges off of those critiques:
Understanding the moment, modulating tone, leading. Important qualities & a glaring contrast. https://t.co/VJ7wLJlswR
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) October 1, 2022
Grilling up hash browns at Waffle House. @GovRonDesantis serving first responders in Punta Gorda. pic.twitter.com/yE5H21FHX7
— holly gregory (@hollygregory33) October 1, 2022
.@GovRonDeSantis delivers Starlink units for first responders in Lee County and announces the acquisition of 120 more units to provide coverage to the public in SWFL. @elonmusk’s @SpaceX is already repositioning satellites to ensure connectivity. pic.twitter.com/QfUGnPuj9g
— Jeremy Redfern (@JeremyRedfernFL) October 1, 2022
But he's still more than capable of marshaling facts to push back against the types of narratives the press cannot help but try to seed:
The media can't help themselves - everything must be politicized. No opportunity to smear opponents is too low. This reporter misrepresented FEMA Director's words@RonDeSantisFL won't accept it. He'll always stand up for Florida & our world class emergency response professionals pic.twitter.com/Uemzm5vcPH
— DeSantis War Room ?? #FloridaStrong (@DeSantisWarRoom) September 27, 2022
And did it without insulting her or calling her names. Just facts https://t.co/y0LJV9WYPu
— Marc Thiessen ?????? (@marcthiessen) October 3, 2022
Biden, by the way, finally ended up phoning DeSantis, who shamed the president by taking the high road, and the two have been cooperating as necessary ever since. As has so often been the case, the uber-hostile media finds ways to accidentally help DeSantis, like this sort of derangement over an entirely reasonable admonition against lawlessness and looting:
Warning people against trying to rob those fleeing a hurricane apparently makes DeSantis the equivalent of a segregationist.
— AG (@AGHamilton29) October 1, 2022
How do you not get embarrassed by this stuff? https://t.co/dcWpH51cXi
Florida is a law and order state.
— Ron DeSantis (@GovRonDeSantis) October 1, 2022
Looting and lawlessness will not be tolerated. pic.twitter.com/8Ma9RuSlPq
In contrast to the way Florida officials have been handling the devastating storm and its aftermath, I'll leave you with this:
This is false. @VP's rhetoric is causing undue panic and must be clarified. FEMA Individual Assistance is already available to all Floridians impacted by Hurricane Ian, regardless of race or background. If you need assistance visit https://t.co/x9X8AstnzL or call 1-800-621-3362. https://t.co/idsw1PX86x
— Christina Pushaw ?? ???? (@ChristinaPushaw) September 30, 2022
