President Biden's job approval rating has been sagging badly lately, and implications for his party could be grave. We already witnessed 12-13 point swings toward Republicans, away from Biden's 2020 margins, in the blue states of Virginia and New Jersey last week. And if Biden's fortunes don't improve substantially in the coming months, his party may be staring down the barrel of a punishing midterm election cycle. History is already stacked against them, but events can be the difference between modest losses and a wipeout. As I mentioned on Fox News this week, at the moment, Biden's numbers are in emergency territory:
.@guypbenson on the GOP's momentum heading into the 2022 midterm elections @TheStoryFNC #TheStory #FoxNews #Midterms pic.twitter.com/KFlyG0VTlv
— The Guy Benson Show (@GuyBensonShow) November 9, 2021
Context as we look ahead to 2022: Back in 2010, Obama's avg approval rating was underwater by ~2 points a few days before GOP won midterm landslide. Today, Biden's avg approval is close to 10 points underwater. Right track/wrong track very similar (a bit worse now)... pic.twitter.com/r2sqdOL34G
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) November 9, 2021
He's getting hammered on the economy, and a big reason is inflation. The cost of goods and services has been rising noticeably, and people are feeling it in their wallets. Thanksgiving feasts will be more expensive, with popular staples harder to find due to supply chain disruptions (which the president's Transportation Secretary is blaming on child care issues). Yesterday, we saw this metric on the inflation:
Inflation at the wholesale level rose 8.6% last month from a year earlier, matching September’s record annual gain and offering more evidence that inflationary pressures are not yet easing. The Labor Department reported Tuesday that its producer price index — which measures inflation before it hits consumers — rose 0.6% last month from September, pushed higher by surging gasoline prices. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, wholesale inflation was up 0.4% in October from September and 6.8% from a year ago...On Wednesday, the Labor Department will release its consumer price index for last month. According to a survey of economists by FactSet, it is expected to show that consumer prices rose 0.5% from September and 5.8% from a year earlier — beating September’s 5.4% year-over-year gain, the fastest since 2008.
And what did the Consumer Price Index report actually show? Even more serious inflation than was already forecast by experts:
BREAKING: U.S. inflation was up 6.2% in October over a year ago. That’s the highest inflation in 31 years.
— Heather Long (@byHeatherLong) November 10, 2021
Inflation was up 0.9% in Oct. alone, a much higher increase than 0.4% in Sept. and 0.3% in August.
Prices are rising for food, energy, shelter, used cars and new cars.
Translation: Wages have fallen over the last year, when inflation is priced in. https://t.co/BHLCYnym4B
— Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) November 10, 2021
Wage gains have been subsumed and overwhelmed by inflationary pressures, causing the cost of many goods and services to rise considerably. The net result is 'real' wages falling, as workers experience less buying power. "Holy cow," was one CNBC analysts reaction to the news today:
CNBC on October’s rising inflation number: “Holy cow…that’s the highest since October of 1990…”
— America Rising (@AmericaRising) November 10, 2021
“You can call it temporary, but it certainly doesn’t appear that way in the real world.” pic.twitter.com/2lB2yEzN2A
Even the Biden administration seems to be shuffling away from its own "transitory" and "temporary" talking point, given the realities facing Americans and the Treasury Secretary admitting that inflation may continue to bite well into 2022:
A messaging shift from Biden on inflation today, tho no immediate sign of a policy shift. No more talk about “transitory”. pic.twitter.com/RV2vRZahcW
— Jim Tankersley (@jimtankersley) November 10, 2021
Energy costs are getting especially painful, and according to a New York Times report, experts are worried they'll get more severe when cold weather arrives:
With consumers already dealing with the fastest price increases in decades, another unwelcome uptick is on the horizon: a widely expected increase in winter heating bills. After plunging during the pandemic as the global economy slowed, energy prices have roared upward. Natural gas, used to heat almost half of U.S. households, has almost doubled in price since this time last year. The price of crude oil — which deeply affects the 10 percent of households that rely on heating oil and propane during the winter — has soared by similarly eye-popping levels. And those costs are being quickly passed through to consumers...In the United States, the winter months account for about 50 to 80 percent of residential fuel consumption. And there is “a significant chance” consumers could face a “marked increase” in prices for heating, said Nina Fahy, an analyst for Energy Aspects, a research consultancy.
The story is accompanied by an infographic showing price spikes this year -- Natural gas up 91 percent in one year, heating oil up 115 percent, and propane up 148 percent. Biden's Energy Secretary recently laughed loudly in a television interview when asked about the administration's policy to combat these trends. She was right to say that certain major factors are out of any administration's control, but the problem is that Team Biden has taken various policy steps in the wrong direction on energy costs, making the United States more susceptible to outside pressures. As the president speaks words about "instructing" his team to look for ways to mitigate the issue, a Republican leadership aide makes the obvious point: "His administration has spent 10 months implementing policies that increase energy prices...He killed the Keystone XL pipeline on his first day. He's blocked oil & gas leasing on federal lands. His agencies are reviving the War on Coal." Congressional Democrats look at all of this inflation, and seem to be redoubling their commitment to spending additional, astronomical sums of money:
So that's potentially $3.4 trillion in new spending *before* we get to a $2 trillion "Build Back Better" reconciliation bill.https://t.co/z1sVrrm0sr
— John McCormack (@McCormackJohn) November 10, 2021
"Moderate" House Democrats are reportedly open to voting on their massive new spending bill before an official score of the legislation is even produced by the Congressional Budget Office. It's insane. Will anyone put an end to this madness? Anyone?
By all accounts, the threat posed by record inflation to the American people is not “transitory” and is instead getting worse. From the grocery store to the gas pump, Americans know the inflation tax is real and DC can no longer ignore the economic pain Americans feel every day.
— Senator Joe Manchin (@Sen_JoeManchin) November 10, 2021
Coming full circle, back to polling and popularity, I'll leave you with this scalding take from Democratic strategist and part-time comedian Jimmy Kimmel. In fairness, he's defensive of fellow insufferable phonies, and understandably has a soft spot for people who will laugh at anything:
.@jimmykimmel: The reason @VP Harris is so unpopular is because Americans are sexist and racist pic.twitter.com/Bnhzpvvnrd
— Tom Elliott (@tomselliott) November 10, 2021
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