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Tipsheet

Spiral: This New Poll is the Most Brutal of Biden's Presidency -- and it's Even Worse for Kamala

Last week, Virginia voters swept Republicans into power statewide for the first time in 12 years, a powerful reversal in a Commonwealth that went for Joe Biden by ten points a year ago.  And although there's still work to do, the GOP also regained the Virginia legislature's lower chamber.  On the same night, New Jersey's Democratic governor had a real scare, barely holding off his Republican challenger in a stunning squeaker.  The state-level GOP gained legislative seats in both chambers -- including a no-name, virtually un-funded Republican truck driver knocking off Democrats' long-tenured Senate president (that Democrat is refusing to concede, claiming that 12,000 uncounted ballots were "recently found").  Conservatives won school board elections all across the country, and other striking outcomes underscore how painful of a night it was for the Democratic Party.  To wit, a New York Times dispatch from suburban Long Island, New York:

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It wasn’t the high taxes in Nassau County, or the recent changes to New York’s bail laws that drove Lizette Sonsini, a former Democrat, to vote Republican this year. Her reasons were more overarching. “I don’t like the president, and the Democrats are spending too much money on things like infrastructure, when really we need politicians who are going to bring more money back into this country,” said Ms. Sonsini, 56, of Great Neck. “Maybe if Democrats see how we’re voting in these local elections,” she said, “they will see we’re not happy with the way things are going.” Across the country, Democrats witnessed an intense backlash on Election Day, as the party suffered major losses in Virginia and in many suburban communities like Nassau County, where Democratic leaders were swept from office by Republicans — even though registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by 100,000...

Off-year elections are often hard for the party of the sitting president, but the results defied candidate expectations and bolstered arguments that President Biden’s unpopularity and the Democratic Party’s internecine battles were undermining its viability in the suburbs...The county has more than a million registered voters; 264,000 showed up and they voted overwhelmingly Republican, seemingly ousting Ms. Curran after one term. “There was a wave, there’s no doubt about it, even for an unapologetically pro-business, pro-public safety Democrat,” Ms. Curran said in an interview, referring to herself. In conversations with more than a dozen Nassau County voters this week, they cited their overall disapproval of the president, their distaste for vaccine mandates and a fear of funds being diverted from the police as factors in their decision to vote Republican. Concerns over Mr. Biden’s handling of Israel also arose several times.

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One fantasy that has cropped up on the Left is that the timing of last week's elections was the real killer for Democrats. A good jobs report and the passage of the bipartisan infrastructure bill just days later, they argue, would have reversed -- or at least dramatically improved -- their fortunes.  I seriously doubt it.  What caused Democrats to lose significant ground in Virginia and elsewhere were an unpopular president, a deep discontentment with the direction the country is headed, a backlash against one-party rule, and a strong GOP advantage on issues ranging from the economy, to national security, to immigration.  Republicans were also drawing political blood on education.  Depending on what poll you look at, the president's partisan spending agenda is either relatively popular or relatively unpopular.  But what seems clear is that the American people are not clamoring for it.  Most people don't know what's in the proposals, and pluralities believe they would do more harm than good.

Relatedly, a brand new national survey from USA Today and Suffolk is about as bruising as it gets for Democrats.  The president's approval rating is terrible.  The vice president's is worse.  And as for the 'generic Congressional ballot' as we charge toward the midterm election cycle, this is catastrophe-level stuff for the party in power -- especially since Democrats usually have a built-in advantage on this metric.  There's a long way to go, and this poll is a bit of an outlier for now (even though it aligns with the general trajectory of public opinion), but my goodness:

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This may seem far-fetched, but is it, really?  Biden carried Virginia by ten points, then Republicans just won it by 2-3 points in a high-turnout off year election.  Biden won New Jersey by 16 points.  Gov. Phil Murphy clung on by 2-3 points.  Swings of approximately 13 points in both states.  Blue states.  More


Biden is at 38/59 approval in this poll, clocking in at a dreadful net (-21).  His second-in-command is in worse shape, at (28/51) and net (-23).  Some additional findings:

Nearly half of those surveyed, 46%, say Biden has done a worse job as president than they expected, including 16% of those who voted for him. Independents, by 7-1 (44%-6%), say he's done worse, not better, than they expected...[voters] are split on the more expensive and further-reaching "Build Back Better" act being debated in Congress. Only 1 in 4 say the bill's provisions would help them and their families. 
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The frustration, incompetence, and unpopularity is reportedly getting under President Biden's skin:


I wonder how much he'll yell at his staff if and when large payments are approved for illegal immigrants affected by the Trump administration's family separation policy, and the public reacts poorly.  His instinct was to deny that such payments were under discussion, only to see his denial 'cleaned up' and reversed by his staff.  Massive settlements to illegal immigrants is about as popular as you might expect.  And by the way, this pollster was pretty close to bang-on in Virginia and New Jersey:


I'll leave you with more woke nonsense that almost seems designed in a lab to drive swing voters away:

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UPDATE - CNN is out with a new poll that has Biden slipping, but is quite friendly to Democrats overall. My observation:

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