FISHKILL, N.Y. – Nestled slightly east of the U.S. Military Academy and just south of where the Clintons celebrated daughter Chelsea’s wedding, this tony little village may play a part in restoring Republican representation from the Northeast in the U.S. House of Representatives.
The Democrat in jeopardy here is sophomore Rep. John Hall of Dover Plains.
After a midterm massacre in 2006 and the 2008 defeat of Rep. Christopher Shays, R-Conn., not a single House Republican remained in all of New England.
The media forecast that Republicans were unelectable in New England and barely electable in the Northeast. With six of nine Northeast states lacking GOP House members, that forecast appeared true.
Yet predictions can be fraught with flaws.
Like all true-believers after a stunning victory, Democratic strategist James Carville predicted that back-to-back Democratic electoral wins meant the party was set to rule for 40 years.
Carville was as misguided as Dick Cheney was, when Cheney proclaimed President George W. Bush’s 2004 win was a mandate.
What both men failed to understand is that Americans were not voting for their parties but against the other party.
Bush won because rank-and-file Democrats did not get behind Sen. John Kerry, their party’s nominee. And Republicans lost their congressional majorities because GOP voters were so disgusted that they stayed home.
The next House majority pivots on discontent once again. Voters are striking out against Democrats – although it remains to be seen if Republicans can win on merit, too.
“In politics, brief swings are often misinterpreted as radical realignments,” says House race analyst Isaac Wood. “In reality, the pendulum swings back and forth, although each undulation is often misinterpreted as the dawning of a new era.”
New England and the rest of the Northeast is not as conservative as other areas of the country, so when the GOP finds the right candidate with the right moderate profile, it can pick up seats.
“This is basically the Democratic playbook in the South during their victories in 2006 and 2008, but in reverse,” explains Wood.
The number one issue right now is jobs, he says, which is why Democrat Hall’s seat is in play. He ran on jobs before – a problem, since jobs are scarce in his district.
Here are some other Northeast races where Republicans have a serious chance of picking up seats: