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Tuesday, July 28, 2009
David Eifrig :: Townhall.com Columnist
Two Shocking Silver Charts
by David Eifrig
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If you've ever considered buying silver, I recommend you do it soon.

I just urged my readers to buy the metal with a unique U.S government-backed vehicle the average investor has never considered. More on this later. First, I want to tell you why I believe it's a great idea to buy silver right now...

Man has used silver as money for thousands of years. It's easily divisible. It's easy to carry around. It has intrinsic value in jewelry and industrial applications. Heck, the British "pound" gets its name from the weight of silver used for trade in the early ninth century (a so-called troy pound). Silver as money is even mentioned in the Bible (it's how Judas was paid off for turning in Jesus).

However, in the early 20th century, governments around the globe abandoned silver as money. They decided it was easier to expand a nation's credit with fiat paper money than to mine more silver. Over time, governments sold off their silver stockpiles to industry and investors.

At first, much of this silver was used up in industrial manufacturing and processes like photography. That silver is gone forever. Then, starting around 1997, silver quietly started flowing into private hands. Individual folks concerned with wars, investment bubbles, and mismanaged economies were buying it up. They turned to silver as a safe form of savings that can't be debased by a gang of spend-happy politicians.

Buying silver back then was a smart move. The metal is up 150 percent over the last 12 years... while stocks and real estate have struggled to do anything... while paper currencies have depreciated in value.

More people are catching onto this move. Have a look at the chart below. It shows how silver keeps moving into private hands:

Known Bullion Supplies

Now here's another one. It shows the sales volume of the U.S. Mint's popular Silver Eagle coins. Note the huge volume spike on the right-hand side:

Primary Sales of Silver Eagle Bullion Coins

As you can see, there's a modern-day "silver rush" happening right now. Continued...

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About The Author
Dr. David Eifrig Jr. is the editor of Retirement Millionaire, a monthly advisory showing readers how to live a millionaire lifestyle without the additional costs.
 
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Re: Two shocking silver charts
There is a plethora of ads for gold and silver out there today. One thing that really annoys me is that I believe these ads have mixed the intrinsic value proposition of precious metals with the proposition of collectibles. I think it's deceptive to show ingots/bullion in the same ad as coins, especially when there are vague references to old coins being worth fortunes on occasion. That may be, but that's a function of numismatics, not the market price for gold or silver. I'm not following the US Mint Silver Eagles at all but please be sure to divorce the collectible value from the price of the underlying silver when you discuss it for your readers.

Sincerely,
Chuck

Text of my email to 'Doc'
Doc,
C'me on, you can do better than that! You don't explain what the "Millions of Ounces" represent on the left side of Chart 1. Is it total world silver stock? Is it the silver held by the three entities shown (Comex, Gov't, & European Dealers)? Is it the volume traded by the entities shown? If it's the second one (silver stocks held), we are seeing a picture of silver moving from strong hands into weak hands. This always precedes a price collapse. But without more information about chart 1 and a price chart it's impossible to make an accurate estimation.

And how can you purport to analyze the price of any commodity without showing a price chart?

With the price up 150%, the volume of small purchases skyrocketing, and (if I guessed right on the left side of chart 1) silver moving from strong hands to weak hands, this could be a classic blow-off top. In which case anyone who heeds your advice is going to take a serious bath.

Some questions:
How much silver do you own?

When did you buy it?

Are you still buying?

Are you selling?

How much do you plan to have in your personal inventory a year from now?

Why didn't you clearly label Chart 1?

Why didn't you include a 19-year (or even a 10-year) price chart?

I notice that this is the first time Townhall has carried a column by you. Why at this particular time? Do they someway stand to benefit from your advice? (I'm a loyal reader but have my doubt about some of the sharp business practices I've observed at times in the past.)

I'm sorry if some of this impugns your character, but these are important questions I would need answered before your advice held any credibility with me.
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