Earlier on Wednesday, as Katie has been covering, President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariffs for those countries at the negotiation table. The market was quick to react, experiencing notable highs, especially Dow Jones. They weren't the only ones to react, though. Goldman Sachs updated their concerns of a recession not long after Trump's announcement, a stunning reversal of their prediction from earlier that same day.
— Katie Pavlich (@KatiePavlich) April 9, 2025
Shortly after Trump's announcement, Goldman Sachs put out a new statement, speaking to the prior tariffs remaining in place as well as how they "continue to expect additional sector-specific tariffs." As the statement continued, "Together, these tariffs are likely to sum to something close to our previous expectation of a 15pp increase in the effective tariff rate. As a result, we are reverting to our previous non-recession baseline forecast with a GDP growth of 0.5% and a 45% probability of a recession."
Goldman Sachs takes back recession forecast from two hours ago. What a wild day ... pic.twitter.com/x9TaUffLLY
— James Pethokoukis ⏩️⤴️ (@JimPethokoukis) April 9, 2025
Funny. Per @GoldmanSachs, from 12:57 p.m. to 2:10 p.m. EDT there was a recession in the United States of America. (h/t @ZeroHedge) pic.twitter.com/FVekIQxO2n
— FITSNews (@fitsnews) April 9, 2025
Earlier on Wednesday, Goldman Sachs generated plenty of buzz over their raised concerns about a recession. "We think the White House is unlikely to quickly reverse most of the new tariffs, but our probability of recession would decline if it does," a statement from economists led by Jan Hatizius read. It turned out to be quite ironic, especially on the timing.
In reporting on the dueling statements, CNBC took note of that timing with a headline on how "Goldman forecast a recession, then almost immediately rescinded it after Trump tariff pause." That piece also spoke to how the statement "came amid a broader market surge Wednesday afternoon, as investors cheered the news..."
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"In light of Trump's decision, Goldman suddenly lowered its expectations of ho likely a recession will be this year. Goldman had put out a note 30 minutes prior to Trump's announcement that raised the odds of a recession with a 12-month probability of 65% and forecast a GDP decline of 1% this year," CNBC also mentioned.
Reuters reported earlier this week that Goldman Sachs had been repeatedly increasing the chances of a recession.
By the closing bell, CNBC was reporting even more good news to do with the Dow, with one of their live updates indicating how "Dow surges 2,900 points, S&P 500 posts biggest gain since 2008 on Trump tariff reversal."
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