As Townhall has been covering, there's been plenty of chatter about an Iowa poll from over the weekend put out there by the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa, given the dubious nature of how Vice President Kamala Harris was up by +3 against former and potentially future President Donald Trump. Not only is it unlikely that such results are what will come to be, given what that would mean for trend lines, and how Trump handily won the state in 2016 and 2020, but because there was another poll released on Saturday showing very different results.
Earlier on Monday, Guy did a write-up on the Des Moines Register poll from Ann Selzer. He also referenced a poll from Emerson College/RealClearDefense, released on Saturday night as well, which showed Trump leading by 53-43 percent against Harris.
IOWA POLL with @RCDefense
— Emerson College Polling (@EmersonPolling) November 2, 2024
2024 presidential ballot
Trump 53%
Harris 43%
1% someone else
3% undecidedhttps://t.co/T4YIGrOIEt pic.twitter.com/ecuCbWkTLG
The Des Moines register poll was conducted October 28-31 with 808 likely voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. This Emerson College poll was conducted November 1-2, so around the same time, with 800 likely voters and the same exact MOE of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
Again, there's been lots of chatter over this poll, and that includes how legitimate it may be, or if it's one of those recent efforts to drive up momentum for Harris and away from Trump. If this poll turns out to be accurate, the race is wilder than we could have imagine. If it's inaccurate, though, as is likely the case, that may spell bad news for not just Harris--who wasn't expected to win the state to begin with--but also for Selzer and the reputation of her poll.
As Trending Politics' Collin Rugg pointed out, he had just recently said that "I am seeing a coordinated left-wing operation claiming there is a 'momentum shift' towards Harris," which he said "has ramped up in the past few days."
"They are creating a narrative that Kamala Harris is seeing a surprising surge in support. This is only to discourage right-wingers from voting. They do this every election and they are doing it now," Rugg had also reminded.
NEW: Ann Selzer poll shows Kamala Harris leading by three points in Iowa.
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) November 3, 2024
Harris: 47%
Trump: 44%
The same poll had Trump leading Biden by 18 points in June, an unbelievable 21-point swing.
I said this exact quote two days ago: "I am seeing a coordinated left-wing operation… pic.twitter.com/WsF4Q5Iw2G
Selzer also had quite the tricky time explaining the results of her poll, including when it comes to the mention from Ryan Girdusky on how radically off the results are from the 2020 exit poll numbers.
NEW: Polling guru Ann Selzer, who released the poll in Iowa showing Harris up by 3, apparently doesn't know what the "D" and "R" mean in her cross tabs.
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) November 4, 2024
Halperin: Can you respond to the criticisms of your poll?
Selzer: That’s a little difficult for me to see. What, what, what… pic.twitter.com/EylbafHO7U
Read through the Selzer crosstabs and... it's just straight crazy. Here's Selzer/2020 Exits
— Ryan James Girdusky (@RyanGirdusky) November 3, 2024
Overall: D+3/R+8
Senior Women: D+35/D+6
Senior Men: R+2/R+32
Indies: D+7/D+4
Women: D+20/D+3
Men: R+14/R+19
Rurals: R+20/R+28
Suburbs: D+23/R+3
No College: R+12/R+17
College: D+30/D+7
When it comes to some of the good findings for Trump in this Des Moines Register poll, there's the enthusiasm factor for Trump. As the poll's write-up mentions:
One aspect where Trump does better than Harris: A greater share of his supporters than hers say they are extremely or very enthusiastic about their pick.
Seventy-six percent of Trump supporters say they are extremely or very enthusiastic about their choice, while another 23% say they are mildly or not that enthusiastic.
For Harris, 71% are extremely or very enthusiastic — down from 80% in September — while 29% are mildly or not that enthusiastic.
The poll's write-up includes a graph showing how 76 percent of Trump supporters are indeed "extremely" or "very enthusiastic" about voting for Trump, with a plurality, at 40 percent, saying they are "extremely enthusiastic." For Harris, 71 percent are "extremely" or "very enthusiastic" about voting for her, with 37 percent, also a plurality, saying they are "extremely enthusiastic."
This is another reason that may call into question the results being so good for Harris in this poll, especially since she went down 9 percentage points on the enthusiasm level from September's poll. Further, Harris only leads by 46-44 percent among younger voters under 35.
When it comes to the Emerson College poll, the numbers are completely different, especially with demographics. Even the write-up from the Des Moines Register noted how dramatic such a shift was for Harris, emphasizing support from women and Independents. "A victory for Harris would be a shocking development after Iowa has swung aggressively to the right in recent elections, delivering Trump solid victories in 2016 and 2020," one of the write-up's "Key Points" mentioned. "The poll shows that women — particularly those who are older or are politically independent — are driving the late shift toward Harris," read another.
But, that stands in stark contrast to the Emerson College poll. "Both female and male voters in Iowa support Trump, women by a five-point margin, 51% to 46%, and men by a significant 17-point margin, 56% to 39%," Spencer Kimball, the executive director of Emerson College Polling, is quoted as saying. "Trump also leads among independents, 53% to 36%."
Interestingly enough, this poll also shows a wider gap for Harris among young voters, with those under 30 breaking for the Democratic nominee by 54-46 percent.
President Joe Biden only has a 34 percent approval rating in the Hawkeye State, while 56 percent disapprove. This is especially noteworthy, given that Harris may wish to distance herself from the failing Biden-Harris administration, though that's not something she has the benefit of doing, considering that she's been the sitting vice president for close to four years.
Iowa was once a swing state, though it's in the "Likely Republican" column for this cycle, which sounds just about right. The state voted for President Barack Obama in both 2008 and 2012, as well as for the Democratic nominee for every election from 1988-2000, and in 1964. Trump won Iowa by close to 10 percentage points in 2016, though, and by a little over 8 percentage points in 2020.
Beyond the presidential level, this applies to the Senate as well. When Republican Sen. Joni Ernst won in 2014, it was her win that helped flip control of the chamber to the Republican Party. She was considered vulnerable in her reelection race for 2020, but ended up winning by 6.5 percentage points.
"A victory for Harris would be a surprising development after Iowa has swung aggressively to the right in recent elections, delivering Trump solid victories in 2016 and 2020," the Des Moines Register write-up acknowledged.
While the state only has 6 electoral votes, if this is as close and competitive race as the polls have been indicating, that could still be significant. Beyond the sheer numbers, there's also the sense of momentum in what states for which candidates and how much that's spreading. If anything, the momentum looks to be on Trump's side. Either way, with any hope we'll hopefully know the results for sure within a few days.
