Although CNN's latest polling has some some mixed results on who is ahead and by how much in key swing states, the network has also been previewing a win for former and potentially future President Donald Trump for some time now, with Harry Enten doing so again on Wednesday. As he poitned out, "the signs all along will have been obvious" for a Trump win.
While on "CNN News Central," Enten was there to examine "the case for a Donald Trump victory," specifically when it comes to what host John Berman described as "one of the most overlooked numbers of this election, but could be one of the most important."
That number is that 28 percent of voters believe the country is going in the right direction. For a historical perspective, that 28 percent, Enten explained, is closer to the 25 percent average figure of when the incumbent party wins than the 42 percent average figure when the incumbent party wins. Enten stressed that that current 28 percent "doesn't look anything, anything like" that 42 percent figure.
"So, the bottom line is, very few Americans think the country is on the right track at this particular point. It tracks much more with when the incumbent party loses than with it wins. In fact, I went back through history," Enten continued, bringing up even more historical tidbits to spell bad news for Vice President Kamala Harris and the Democratic Party. "There isn't a single time in which 28 percent of the American public thinks the country is going on the right track in which the incumbent party actually won. They always lose when just 28 percent of the country believes that the country is on the right track," prompting Berman to not it is a matter of "swimming upstream."
When it further comes to the right direction/wrong track question, it's worth reminding that Harris herself has seriously messed up in responding to such an issue. During her Fox News interview with Bret Baier earlier this month, a particularly cringeworthy and noteworthy moment for Harris involved that topic.
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According to a recent poll, just 21 percent believe the country is going in the right direction. As Harris starting ranting and raving about Trump, she tried to insist to Baier that "you know and I both know what I’m talking about!" Baier candidly responded, "I actually don’t. What are you talking about?"
HARRIS: "You know and I both know what I’m talking about. You know and I both know what I’m talking about!"
— Townhall.com (@townhallcom) October 16, 2024
BRET BAIER: "I actually don’t. What are you talking about?" pic.twitter.com/cBe3Ulb8ow
Enten and Berman also discussed President Joe Biden, noting the unavoidable topic of how the news has been, "on a micro level," surrounding his remarks referring to Trump supporters as "garbage."
"So, you know, Joe Biden isn't on the ballot, but he's certainly in the minds of Americans, right? So, I went back and I looked, okay, was this successor of the same party when the president's net approval rating was negative at this point, which Joe Biden's most definitely is. He's 15 points underwater," Enten offered, continuing with more bad news.
Referring to other presidents with such low approval ratings, he pointed how presidential nominees did not succeed such an unpopular president of the same party. This includes Republican President George W. Bush being succeeded by Democratic President Barack Obama in 2008, Democratic President Lyndon B. Johnson being succeeded by Republican President Richard Nixon in 1968, and Democratic President Harry S. Truman being succeeded in 1952 by Republican President Dwight D. Eisenhower.
"So, the bottom line is, for Kamala Harris to win, she'd have to break history, be a Democrat to succeed Joe Biden when Biden's approval rating is way under water at this point," Enten made clear. Berman also chimed in to offer that "it could happen, it just doesn't in recent history."
Republicans have also been able to register voters "in big, huge numbers," Enten pointed out, going beyond just historical precedent. These are some of the gains seen in key swing states, and in comparison to four years ago especially. The early voting numbers are also looking hopeful in Nevada. "So, Republicans are putting more Republicans in the electorate. The Democratic number versus the Republican number has shrunk," Enten offered.
Thus, a Trump win shouldn't be so surprising at all. "And so the bottom line is, if Republicans win, come next week, Donald Trump wins come next week. The signs all along will have been obvious. We would look at the right direction being very low, Joe Biden's approval rating being very low, and Republicans really registering numbers. You can't say you weren't warned," Enten made clear to viewers.
If Trump wins, the signs were there all along.
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) October 30, 2024
No incumbent party has won another term with so few voters saying the country is on the right track (28%) or when the president's net approval rating is so low (Biden's at -15 pts).
Also, big GOP registration gains in key states. pic.twitter.com/knDQ2HOFtJ
This comes after Enten shared on CNN last Friday, following some good polling numbers for Trump from The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times/Siena College, that viewers might want to prepare themselves for Trump to not just win the Electoral College, but the popular vote as well.
Earlier on Thursday, Enten also previewed a win for Harris as well, though, as he and Berman had teased.
During his Thursday morning appearance on "CNN News Central," Enten offered that "the signs [are] as clear as day" if Harris wins. In this case, Enten argued, Harris is more popular than Trump, given her net favorables. However, there are polls showing that Trump has better favorable numbers than Harris.
"I went all the way back since 1956 and looked at the polls. Does the more popular candidate usually win? The answer is absolutely yes. Sixteen times, the more popular candidate has won. Only one time, the less popular candidate has won," which was Trump running against Democrat Hillary Clinton in 2016, who was also unpopular.
That being said, I'm still not sold on Harris being considered so popular, even as Enten brought that up as "the bottom line."
Host Kate Bolduan also brought up how "Democrats are fond of that saying, forget the polls, when we vote, we win," which Enten says he "absolutely" sees something in. This is especially the case with special elections, as well as how Democrats are able to perform better than Biden, which "is a good sign."
"Historically speaking, there is correlation between how folks do in the special elections, especially in this polarized era, and how folks do eventually in the presidential election," Enten said, offering how "maybe Democrats will actually do better than the polls have been indicating."
Enten and Bolduan still reminded that very few Americans believe the country is on the right track and that Biden's approval rating is so low, though they were also similar for the midterms in 2022, when Democrats performed much better than expected, "historically well," in fact, and could do so again next week.
Part II: If Harris wins, the signs were clear as day.
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) October 31, 2024
1. She has a higher net favorable rating than Trump, & the more popular candidate almost always wins.
2/3. Post-Roe: When voters vote, Democrats win. See special elections & 2022 midterms, when Dems did historically well. pic.twitter.com/wbrsVdMuep
Enten had also shared on Wednesday that "this remains the closest presidential race I've ever seen," adding he has "no idea who is going to win." He also noted how the polls "are ridiculously close and have been for a while," though it's worth reminding we've seen momentum for Trump.
We'll find out in less than a week if this election, just like the polls have predicted, turned out to be "ridiculously close" after all.
This remains the closest presidential election I've ever seen...
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) October 30, 2024
I have no idea who is going to win. I haven't had an idea of who is going to win. The polls are ridiculously close and have been for a while.
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