When the 2024 presidential election looked to be between President Joe Biden and former and potentially future President Donald Trump, there were states more in play than they had been in decades. Trump wasn't just leading in the key swing states, he looked to have a chance perhaps in Virginia, even New York and New Jersey. When Vice President Kamala Harris became the nominee, the race got tighter, as Democrats were mostly just thrilled to have someone other than Biden. The map changed a bit, but with just weeks before the election, it's now Harris who is slipping in those key states once more.
In a Trump-Biden matchup, RealClearPolling actually had Trump leading Biden by +0.4 in Virginia, despite how Biden won the commonwealth by close to 10 points in 2020. Virginia has voted for the Democratic nominee every year since 2008. In a Trump-Harris matchup, Harris leads by +4.8, per RealClearPolling. She's back in the lead, but it's a far cry from the 2020 margins. Further, many polls had Biden leading by double digits leading up to the election.
According to the latest VCU Wilder School poll, released on Wednesday, Harris still leads Trump with registered voters, 43-37 percent. This is a drop from the poll conducted at the end of August into early September, when she led Trump by 46-36 percent.
New VCU poll in Virginia: Harris +6. Last poll in August was Harris +10. Biden won VA by 10 in 2020. https://t.co/ZWmFDzVrzA pic.twitter.com/EbrdHFQnEh
— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) October 3, 2024
That slip certainly hasn't gone unnoticed. "Kamala Harris’ edge over Donald Trump slips slightly as she leads 43% to 37% in Virginia," a VCU press release read.
VCU's L. Douglas Wilder, who also served as the commonwealth's Democratic governor from 1990-1994, had a bit of a warning following those results. "The slip in the Harris lead, though not alarming, should be a wake-up call, as the sampling error of plus or minus 4.64 sends a message. Independents could make a real difference. The race in Virginia could be decided by who gets their voters to turn out, and voting has already started," he's quoted as saying.
Speaking of those Independents, Trump actually leads Harris, by 29-16 percent. Another 19 percent are undecided. The poll also included 41 percent of Independents, while 30 percent of respondents were Democrats, and 20 percent were Republicans.
Just like we've seen in virtually every poll, at the state and national level, economic issues, in this case "rising cost of living" is the top issue impacting their vote, with 33 percent saying so. Trump leads Harris by 44-36 percent when it comes to who voters would trust more to handle the economy.
This poll was conducted September 16-25 and included 832 Virginians.
ABC 8 News also highlighted Harris' slip with their write-up, "Harris loses 4 points to Trump in Virginia post-debate, still leads by 6 in new VCU poll."
Such a poll had been released following both the ABC News debate between Harris and Trump on September 10, as well as this week's October 1 vice presidential debate between Sen. JD Vance (R-OH) and Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN) on CBS News.
Virginia may be more in play for 2024 because the commonwealth has a Republican governor this time, Glenn Youngkin, who supports Trump. For a time, there was even chatter he could be a potential running mate, though perhaps there will be room for him when it comes to a cabinet position in a potential Trump-Vance administration.
There's also the U.S. Senate race between Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine and Republican Hung Cao. While forecasters consider Kaine to have the edge, Cao did have quite the memorable performance in a Wednesday night debate, as Madeline covered.
RCP has Virginia's 13 electoral votes in the "Leans Democratic" column currently for their map, giving Harris only a slight lead in the commonwealth.
Ultimately, it's the electoral college that matters. With 104 votes in the "Toss-Up" category, Trump leads Harris 219-215, though no candidate has the required 270 votes to win.
Speaking of the electoral college, a CNN poll from Thursday, as Matt covered, found that there's a 68.4 percent chance that Trump will win the electoral college, while Harris has just a 30.4 percent chance. Harris' edge on the popular vote is much more slim, at 49 percent to Trump's 48 percent.
CNN's poll of polls gives Trump a nearly 70% chance of winning the election (68.4% to Kamala's 30.9% to be exact).
— Joe Concha (@JoeConchaTV) October 3, 2024
32 days to Election Day.
Harris-Walz was given almost the full backing of the media
T-ball interviews
Blatantly biased debate moderators
It may not matter... pic.twitter.com/Rbq9Xur4op
