Only time will tell which polling methodology was correct, but Donald J. Trump is performing better than ever, especially in the Midwest. Kamala Harris isn’t breaking away like she needs to regarding countering the underestimated Trump vote. Joe Biden was ahead of Trump by several points in the waning weeks of the 2020 election and still just squeezed by; he only won Pennsylvania by 80,000 votes. It wasn’t necessarily a landslide. Trump only needed 46,000 votes to be re-elected in 2020, so Harris only being ahead by two to three points isn’t enough.
With the latest slew of polling data, CNN’s poll of polls gives Trump a near-70 percent chance of winning the 2024 election:
CNN's poll of polls gives Trump a nearly 70% chance of winning the election (68.4% to Kamala's 30.9% to be exact).
— Joe Concha (@JoeConchaTV) October 3, 2024
32 days to Election Day.
Harris-Walz was given almost the full backing of the media
T-ball interviews
Blatantly biased debate moderators
It may not matter... pic.twitter.com/Rbq9Xur4op
CNN Senior Data Reporter shows a map of what the electoral college would look like if the polls were off to the same degree they were in 2020.
— johnny maga (@_johnnymaga) September 20, 2024
The result: 312 electoral votes for Donald Trump. pic.twitter.com/oVBLfpfqc1
What’s glaring is the underperformance by Kamala Harris among core Democratic voter groups. She’s woefully underwater with union voters, projected to be the worst performing Democrat in a generation. She’s grossly underperforming among black and Jewish voters, too. Is she doing better than Biden in some crosstabs? Sure, but having a pulse isn’t a high benchmark.
Don’t let up for a second, but it’s not doom and gloom territory which was where we were at this point four years ago.
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