Vice President Kamala Harris and former and potentially future President Donald Trump met on Tuesday night for the ABC News debate, which ended up being an epic display of media bias. Polls showed that debate watchers thought that Harris won the debate, but in the case of a CNN snap poll, there was plenty of good news for Trump as well. In the days that follow, can we expect a boost for Harris?
The debate just happened, so it may be some time before we know the effect, if any, it had in the polls. It's also entirely possible it won't move needle.
In a discussion between Fox News' Bret Baier and Democratic pollster Carly Cooperman, Baier noted how the race being "essentially tied" is a problem for Harris when the Electoral College comes into play. "If it's tied, the Electoral College is an uphill battle for her," Baier said.
Cooperman saw the debate as "a high risk, high reward moment" for Harris, explaining, "If she failed it would have been bad, and yet, even doing as well as I think she did, I don't know how much it moves the needle because people who already like Trump, their opinion's baked in." She added, "Maybe that 6-7 percent of voters who are undecided this opened up, you know, a spot to come to her."
Speaking of how Harris supposedly moderated her positions, Cooperman said she believes Harris "is trying to reach those voters who are outside of the core Democratic voting bloc," adding, "But I, um, wouldn't expect to see a huge change in the polls where they are virtually tied right now."
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Did the presidential debate move the needle? Take a listen: https://t.co/Zd80s9cJg1
— Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) September 12, 2024
CNN's Harry Enten believes that Harris will see a bump and posted that "Harris crushed Trump" and "easily won the post-debate polling."
"I think that the most likely scenario is that you will, in fact, see a rise in the polls. Why? Take a look at the last four times we had a first debate, and look at those winners. Did they see a rise in the polls? Yes. Mitt Romney in 2012, Hillary Clinton in 2016, Joe Biden in 2020, and Donald Trump earlier this year, they all saw rises in the polls of two points or more," Enten offered while on CNN on Wednesday morning. "And given how close this race is nationally, given how close it is in the swing states, do not be surprised if Kamala Harris jumps out to lead nationally and don't be surprised if she jumps out to a slight small lead in those key battleground states. It should still probably be a close race based upon history, but no doubt, at least based upon history, we should expect Kamala Harris to receive a polling bump and a race as tight as this one, what would certainly be welcomed."
He reminded, though, that there are still almost two months to go before the election, referring to it as "the key question" as to what this means for November. "You may receive a momentary polling bump, but does that mean you're going to go on and win the election? Not necessarily, because the fact is, the election's all the way in November. And by my calendar, we're still in September."
Enten also emphasized that any poll bump for Harris "doesn't necessarily mean that she'll win come November."
And, he acknowledged that previous debate winners, such as John Kerry in 2004, Romney in 2012, and Clinton in 2016, still went on to lose the election.
Last night, Harris crushed Trump. She easily won the post-debate polling, despite a GOP leaning viewership.
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) September 11, 2024
Harris is likely to gain in post-debate horse race polls of all voters. 1st debate winners normally do.
Still, 3 of the last 5 election winners lost the 1st debate... pic.twitter.com/rrkAh2QbCy
It's not merely past debate winners going on to lose the election that's worth highlighting. As Matt and Leah covered, Trump received even higher marks than before the debate on which candidate was more trusted on the economy.
The Trump War Room account was all too happy to post a screenshot showing that 37 percent of debate watchers trusted Harris more on the economy, while 53 percent said so about Trump. After the debate, Harris' numbers went down to 35 percent, while Trump's rose to 55 percent.
CNN: More voters trust Trump on the economy AFTER watching the debate. pic.twitter.com/TbnCGBi8AM
— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) September 11, 2024
While it's still so soon after the debate, several polls released show Harris in the lead, but others show Trump in the lead, or that the candidates are tied.
Leah's piece also covered how a post-debate poll from the Trafalgar Group with Insider Advantage showed that while 55 percent of debate watchers in seven key swing states said Harris won the debate compared to the 43 percent who said Trump, the candidates were still even at 47 percent support each.
RESULTS of our joint @trafalgar_group @InsiderPolling #PresidentialDebate2024 #Battlegroundstate #poll.
— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) September 11, 2024
1) Supporting for president before the debate.
47% Trump
47% Harris
2% Others
4% Undecided
2) Who won the debate?
55% Harris
43% Trump
2% Tie
3) Who are you… pic.twitter.com/HT0uKQS4fK
Rasmussen Reports released a poll showing Trump leading by +2 among likely voters, 49-47 percent, though that's within the margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. The poll was conducted September 5-11, so many respondents were contacted before the debate, though some were contacted afterward.
Other polls include one from Morning Consult, which tends to favor Harris. This most recent poll has her up for +5 against Trump among likely voters, 50-45 percent, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Post-debate poll by Morning Consult
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 12, 2024
🟦 Harris: 50%
🟥 Trump: 45%
——
Pre-debate - 🔵 Harris +3
Debate day - 🔵 Harris +4
Post-debate - 🔵 Harris +5
#116 (1.8/3.0) | 3,204 LV | ±3%https://t.co/0o0F2eEjwq pic.twitter.com/DKAEQzhvoZ
Another poll, this one from Reuters/Ipsos, also shows Harris leading Trump by +5, by 47-42 percent among registered voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
This is another poll that's often in Harris' favor.
Post-debate poll by Reuters/Ipsos
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 12, 2024
🟦 Harris: 47% [+2]
🟥 Trump: 42% [+1]
[+/- change vs 8/21-28]
——
Who won the debate? (debate watchers)
Harris: 53%
Trump: 24%
No one: 23%
Among Republicans
Trump: 53%
No one: 31%
Harris: 14%
——
#17 (2.8/3.0) | 9/11-12 | 1,405 RV | ±3%… pic.twitter.com/W8XQZWV5Wi
Another poll shows Harris in the lead as well, this one from Leger/The New York Post, though her lead is smaller, 50-47 percent among likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points.
Post-debate poll by Leger/@nypost
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 12, 2024
🟦 Harris: 50%
🟥 Trump: 47%
🟪 Other: 3%
——
Who won the debate?
Harris: 50%
Trump: 29%
Neither: 13%
——
#79 (2.0/3.0) | 9/10-11 | 1,174 LVhttps://t.co/6stCIFVERm
Currently, RealClearPolling has Harris up by +1.5 against Trump, while 538 has her up by +2.8 against Trump.
Thursday afternoon, Nate Silver posted that the day's update showed Harris was helped "very slightly," though there was a note of caution in there:
The first post-debate polls are in, and they helped Kamala Harris very slightly in our forecast –- but we’d caution against reading too much into any of this data just yet. It takes several days to conduct a traditional poll, and thus so far we’ve only heard from online or IVR firms. And many the polls to enter the database so far have fairly strong house effects. Harris got a good number (+5 nationally) in an Ipsos poll, but that’s generally been one of her stronger polls this cycle. And Trump led by 2 points nationally in a Rasmussen Reports survey, but Rasmussen has a very strong GOP lean. The model accounts for all of this in calculating its averages and forecasts.
Silver also mentioned that when it comes to who will win, "We honestly don't know."
Today's update. Very slight uptick for Harris based on initial post-debate polling, but we'll need to wait a couple of days to know more.https://t.co/vsGVG189Sa
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 12, 2024
This held up well (although the debate may wind up helping Harris by more than envisioned here).https://t.co/5X8zNkP7Yz pic.twitter.com/gJeCjZ1jHV
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 12, 2024
Polymarket also only has Harris slightly ahead as of Thursday, with a 50 percent chance of winning to Trump's 49 percent chance.
Speaking of Enten once more, he was back on CNN with a warning for Democrats on Thursday morning.
For all the excitement about Taylor Swift endorsing Harris, Enten points out such an endorsement is so "welcome[d]" because as he's "been noting all along during this campaign," there's been an "underperformance that both Joe Biden and now even Kamala Harris has among young voters."
That Harris is "only up by 15 points" among voters 18-29 is such a warning sign because it's "significantly less than Joe Biden was up at this point among the youngest voters in our electorate. It's only about half the margin that Joe Biden was pulling in." Worse, Enten warned, "Kamala Harris is, in fact, not doing as well among young voters as you might expect a Democrat to necessarily be doing based upon history."
Re the talk around Swift with young voters & voter registration, Harris & Democrats are struggling on both counts vs Sept. 2020.
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) September 12, 2024
Harris' margin w/ voters under 30 is 15 pts -- far worse than Biden's 28 pts. Also, the GOP has made big gains vs. Dems in NC/PA voter registration. pic.twitter.com/uFq3ek89tB
The Trump-Vance campaign sent out a memo on Thursday noting a "Post-Debate Bump for Trump, Harris Flat."
Tony Fabrizio and Travis Tunis conducted a survey of likely voters in seven key target states last week as well as on Wednesday night. In a head-to-head matchup against Harris, Trump was at 48 percent last week while Harris was at 50 percent. Trump is still at 48 percent, while Harris went down to 47 percent.
