Even with President Joe Biden and his reelection campaign highlighting how former and potentially future President Donald is a "convicted criminal," polls continue to show that the hush money "trial" in New York City resulting in a "guilty" verdict for Trump hasn't had much of an effect. That isn't the only bad news for the Biden campaign, though. The Trump campaign has talked about states like Virginia and Minnesota being in play this November, and for good reason, as the former president looks to have a small edge in those states, which have voted for the Democratic nominee for president for decades. The campaign is even hopeful that New York and New Jersey could be in play. As bright blue as such states are, recent polls show Biden likely isn't performing as well as he should be.
On Thursday, Siena College released polling of registered voters in the Empire State. The headline for the write-up focuses on Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul's unpopularity. "Hochul Favorability (38-49%) & Job Approval (44-50%) Ratings Lowest Ever," it reads in part.
It's worth reminding Hochul came close to losing to Republican Lee Zeldin in the 2022 gubernatorial race. New York voters have themselves to blame here, considering they could have had a governor who might have had a better approval rating (50 percent disapprove of Hochul) and one considered to have "decisive leadership" (44 percent, a plurality, say Hochul does not have that).
Hochul is not the only unpopular figure in the state with a historically low disapproval rating. Fifty-three percent of New York voters disapprove of Biden, including 39 percent who say they "strongly disapprove." The poll's write-up highlights, "Biden – With Worst-Ever NYS Favorability Rating, 42-53% – Continues to Lead Trump By Single Digits (47-39%)."
There's an entire subheader on how "Biden Has Worst-Ever Favorability Rating and Continues Narrow, Single-Digit Lead Over Trump."
That section reads in part, "President Biden has a 42-53% favorability rating, down from 45-50% in May, his lowest-ever favorability rating. His job approval rating fell to 45-53%, down a little from 46-51% last month. Former President Trump has a 37-59% favorability rating, down from 39-56% in May. Currently, Biden leads Trump 47-39%, little changed from 47-38% in May, and 47-37% in April."
While Biden is viewed slightly more favorably than Trump, a majority view both negatively, and Biden only enjoys a slight advantage over Trump regarding his favorable rating. More telling is that his rating is slipping.
Forty-seven percent of voters in New York say they would vote for Biden, while 39 percent say they would vote for Trump. Biden also has less support from his fellow Democrats than Trump does from his fellow Republicans, at 75 percent and 85 percent, respectively. Trump also enjoys a double-digit lead over Biden among Independents, 45-28 percent.
In 2020, Biden beat Trump in New York with 60.9 percent of the vote to Trump's 37.8 percent, though Trump at least did a little more than 1 percentage point better than he did in 2016 against Hillary Clinton.
Bringing this back to last month's conviction, a plurality of New York voters, 37 percent, say the trial does "not have an effect on who you are likely to vote for in November." And while 28 percent say they're more likely to vote for Biden, that's not too far ahead of the 23 percent who say they're more likely to vote for Trump when factoring in the trial. Trump continues to do well with Independents as well. A plurality, 44 percent, say the trial does not have an effect, but more say they're more likely to vote for Trump afterward than Biden, by 26-12 percent. In fact, Independents are more likely to say they'll vote for a third party candidate than Biden after the trial, 16-12 percent.
There's more bad news from there for Biden and his weaponized and politicized Department of Justice (DOJ). When asked whether the justice system is influenced by politics, close to two-thirds of voters, 65 percent, say that "decisions made by U.S. justice system are influenced by politics or that in general."
A majority of Republicans (82 percent), Independents (67 percent), and even Democrats (57 percent) hold this view.
Trump's "guilty" verdict came down just over three weeks ago. The June 27 debate, which Trump and Biden agreed to last month, is now less than a week away. This will likely be the next major event to see if there's been any movement in the polls.
This poll addresses the debate, too, with 66 percent of voters saying they plan to watch.
"Two-thirds of voters say they plan to watch next week's debate between Trump and Biden, the earliest general election presidential debate in memory," Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg states. "It remains to be seen what impact the debate has on the race, but the last time the presidential election was as close as it is now in New York was 1988 when Democrat Michael Dukakis beat Republican George H.W. Bush by only four points, 52-48%. Ronald Reagan was the last Republican to carry New York – by eight points, 54-46% – in 1984."
The poll was conducted June 12-17 with 805 New York State registered voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.
While there hasn't been much polling out of New Jersey, another bright blue state, a poll from The Hill/Emerson conducted in late March similarly found Biden up by only +7 in New Jersey against Trump, 46-39 percent.
In 2020, Biden won the Garden State with 57.3 percent of the vote to Trump's 41.4 percent.
New York and New Jersey are still regarded as "Safe Democratic," among most forecasters, and are the best states for Biden. That said, RealClearPolitics, which has Minnesota and Virginia in the "Toss-Up" category, ranks New Jersey as "Likely Democratic."
There are still over four months to go before the election. We're getting closer, but a lot could happen to where New York and New Jersey could be even more in play than they possibly are now.
