President Joe Biden's debate performance from last Thursday turned out to be a disaster that still has people talking, as Democrats are forced to scramble to navigate the talking points about keeping Biden on the ballot or trying to replace him. Biden, in his more lucid moments, has expressed excitement in running against former and potentially future President Donald Trump, arguing that he's beaten him before. This time around, however, it's Trump who is leading in the polls, and that debate did no favors for Biden. Would any other hypothetical Democratic nominee have a better shot, though, if that's even something that can happen?
On Saturday, Data for Progress released polling data showing that not only is Trump leading Biden by +3, but he's leading a wide range of other Democratic candidates by 2-3 percentage points.
Trump leads Biden 48-45 percent among likely voters as he also does when it comes to a match up against Vice President Kamala Harris. Trump leads Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg by 47-44 percent, Sen. Cory Booker (NJ) by 46-44 percent, California Gov. Gavin Newsom by 47-44 percent, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer by 46-44 percent, Sen. Amy Klobuchar (MN) by 46-43 percent, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro by 46-43 percent, and Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker by 46-43 percent.
NEW POST-DEBATE POLL: In a new survey, 45% of likely voters choose Biden and 48% choose Trump in a head-to-head matchup.
— Data for Progress (@DataProgress) June 29, 2024
However, there is no clear advantage among the alternative candidates who could replace Biden as the Democratic nominee.https://t.co/o0lW7DVJ4D pic.twitter.com/cY4OAqN4rm
One key name missing is former First Lady Michelle Obama, who has been a replacement name being floated. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) first made the prediction last September, and immediately after the debate expressed even more certainty that the Democrats would go about such a change in a matter of weeks, putting the likelihood at 80 percent.
As Cruz has stressed, Democrats can't risk alienating black women by replacing the unpopular Harris with anyone other than another black woman.
Sure enough, the Data for Progress poll also shows that a plurality of likely Democratic voters would choose Harris as their replacement nominee, with 39 percent saying so. Newsom is in a distant second, with 18 percent selecting the governor, and 10 percent saying they would choose Buttigieg. Nine percent say they're "not sure."
The poll findings highlight that 35 percent of overall likely voters and 51 percent of likely Democratic voters believe "Joe Biden should remain as the Democratic nominee for the 2024 presidential election." While they can say that's still a majority, Data for Progress highlights how it's "[o]nly 51%" and also notes that this is "a 12-point drop among Democrats since Data for Progress asked the same question in early March."
Twenty-six percent of likely Democratic voters say that "Joe Biden should drop out, and the Democratic Party should hold a convention among party delegates to pick a replacement," which isn't a very democratic alternative. Just 17 percent say "Joe Biden should drop out, and Vice President Kamala Harris should take his spot as Democratic nominee."
That being said, 75 percent of likely Democratic voters and 68 percent of overall likely voters think the race will be between Trump and Biden. Nineteen percent of likely Democratic voters and 22 percent of overall likely voters believe it is "too soon to tell."
When asked who the Democratic Party should choose as a replacement nominee if Joe Biden decided to drop out, 39% of Democrats choose Vice President Harris. pic.twitter.com/FGaS1fUmEE
— Data for Progress (@DataProgress) June 29, 2024
As we covered at the time, a YouGov poll released on Friday morning showed that just 30 percent responded with Biden while 49 percent answered "someone else" when asked who the Democratic Party should nominate "if it wants to have the best chance of winning?" A bare majority, at 53 percent of Democrats, said Biden.
The Data for Progress poll also asked voters to describe which responses applied to their thoughts on the election between Trump and Biden. By far, the most selected response was "I wish we had different choices," which 40 percent of likely voters chose, but slightly more Democrats, at 42 percent chose. Only 29 percent of Republicans said so, though. Their most selected response was "I want it to be over," which 32 percent selected.
The poll also delved into the nuances of the debate as well, including who won the debate. A plurality of likely voters, at 47 percent, "watched the debate live."
When respondents were asked who won the debate, 56 percent say Trump, while just 27 percent say Biden, while 16 percent don't know. Among those who watched the debate, 62 percent say Trump won, while 30 percent say Biden, and 8 percent don't know.
As we've seen so many times before, Trump enjoys more support from Republicans than Biden does from Democrats. While just 57 percent of his fellow Democrats say Biden won the debate, 90 percent of Trump's fellow Republicans say he won. Twenty-five percent of Democrats even say Trump won the debate, more than the 19 percent who weren't sure.
Among voters who watched the debate or read about it, 30% say that Biden won, while 62% say that Trump won.
— Data for Progress (@DataProgress) June 29, 2024
Thirty-two percent approve of Biden’s performance, including 63% of Democrats. Fifty-one percent approve of Trump’s performance, a +19-point margin over Biden. pic.twitter.com/xR9Owe5XAR
Similarly, a CNN poll showed that Trump won the debate, by 67-33 percent. YouGov America found that by 43-23 percent, Trump won, with 35 percent saying they were "not sure."
Biden is deeply underwater with his debate approval numbers, at 32-65 percent, while Trump is slightly above, at 51-47 percent.
The poll contained other findings we've seen plenty of times before that also continue to spell very bad news for Biden. When voters were asked to describe which candidate most likely fit the description, Trump had the edge in the following characteristics:
- When it comes to being a "strong" candidate, Trump had an edge over Biden of 53-33 percent
- Trump had an edge of 46-43 percent over Biden when it comes to "Has better plans to solve our country's problems"
- On "being fit to run the country," 49 percent said it applies more to Trump while 35 percent it applies more to Biden
When asked which characteristics best describe Biden, Trump, and Harris, Trump holds a +14-point advantage over Biden on “fit to run the country,” while that advantage shrinks to just 3 points when compared to Harris. pic.twitter.com/YOBmVUEfEz
— Data for Progress (@DataProgress) June 29, 2024
As a headline for the poll's write-up calls attention to, voters think Biden is too old, with 67 percent saying so, including 43 percent of Democrats.
A post from the Data for Progress account in a thread about the poll also highlighted how voters are more likely to care about "Biden's age and mental and physical health" than they are about "Trump's criminal charges and threats to democracy," 53-42 percent.
That's certainly not a good narrative for the Biden campaign, who has incessantly pointed to Trump being a "convicted felon" and claimed he's a supposed "threat to democracy," often by misleading about Trump's remarks, taking them out of context, or even employing debunked narratives.
Sixty-seven percent of voters say that Biden is too old to be president, while 35% the same for Trump.
— Data for Progress (@DataProgress) June 29, 2024
Fifty-three percent of voters are more concerned about Biden’s age and health, while 42% are more concerned about Trump’s criminal charges and threats to democracy. pic.twitter.com/OKskO2JeQz
The poll was conducted on June 28, the day following last week's debate, with 1,011 likely voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. There were 387 likely Democratic voters included in the poll.
The poll certainly received notice from Democrats trying to do cleanup from the debate performance. As Leah highlighted earlier on Monday, the Biden campaign actually referenced the poll. The relevant part of that memo claimed that:
Flash polls from CNN, 538, SurveyUSA, Morning Consult, and Data for Progress show what we expected: the debate did not change the horserace. In fact, following the debate, our internal dials showed President Biden led Trump on key measures of being presidential, speaking to the issues that matter, and being likable by more than 20 points.
Trump was leading before the debate and he's still leading, so they are right in that regard in a way. Internals are to be taken with a grain of salt, though, and that Biden would be leading "by more than 20 points" on anything after that debate is laughable.
Do Democrats even have the option of replacing Biden? At this point, they likely don't. There's far too many legalities. Biden's family members, including and especially First Lady Jill Biden and son Hunter Biden, have pushed the president to stick it through.
It's a good thing for these Democratic voters that a plurality of them want Harris, considering that the war chest would go to her if Biden drops out. The campaign is still claiming he's not, which makes it curious, then, that they're still having to speak with donors in such a way.
To be clear, Julie Chavez Rodriguez stressed that Biden has no intention of not running.
— Amanda Terkel (@aterkel) July 1, 2024
Campaign Chair Jen O'Malley Dillon is also set to hold a call with a larger group of donors on Monday night. https://t.co/koQphWgMkR
On Friday, the Heritage Foundation's Oversight Project put out a memo pointing out that it varies by state if Biden can be replaced, also making clear they're prepared to sue to keep Biden on the ballot.
With this Data for Progress poll included by RealClearPolling, Trump has a +2.0 lead over Biden. Trump's lead is slightly smaller going by 538's numbers, with a lead of +1.4 over Biden.
As Spencer covered earlier on Monday, the DNC is still planning on nominating Biden virtually. Such a plan first came up in late May, as it became necessary to find a way to get the president to qualify for the Ohio ballot.
