The 2024 presidential election, being such a close and competitive one, will likely come down to a handful of voters in a handful of key swing states. Currently, former and potentially future President Donald Trump is leading in all of them, and some of those leads are pretty sizable against President Joe Biden. This even includes states where Trump lost to Biden in 2020. For this 2024 map, we're also seeing states in play that might not have been in the past, such as Virginia where Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin looks eager to help Trump and may even be a pick for Trump's running mate. It's not just Virginia, though, as even more solidly blue states could be in play.
Virginia is something of purple-blue state, which is why Youngkin's win in 2021 and the win of other Republicans mattered so much. Minnesota, another state we've covered before, is more solidly blue. Democrats have trifecta control at the state level, though by narrow margins in the state legislatures. Trump came close to winning the state in 2016 and is looking to continue his efforts this time around.
Last week's poll from Emerson College Polling/The Hill found that Trump is not only leading in six swing states in a head-to-head match up against Biden, he's tied in Minnesota and even leading there in a five-person race.
Sen. Tina Smith (D-MN) had mocked the idea of Minnesota being competitive, as mentioned in a POLITICO piece from last month, just before Trump spoke at an event in the state. Now, however, Democrats don't seem so cocky.
On Sunday, Gov. Tim Walz, the state's Democratic governor appeared on "The Hill Sunday," where he was asked about whether Minnesota was considered a battleground state.
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"Look, we know that this is always going to be a hard race," the governor offered. "I think we’re a microcosm of America, and I think, as you know, your viewers know, that it’s going to be close," Waltz added.
Minnesota has voted for the Democratic candidate for president every year since 1976. While Walz claimed "the good news is that we know how to win races out there" and that "we’ve been winning presidential races since 1972," there have been plenty of Republican presidents since then.
Reporting from The Hill noted that "Minnesota has the longest active stream of voting for Democratic presidential nominees of any U.S. state, last voting for a Republican candidate, former President Nixon, in 1972."
Walz also sung the praises of Biden, who currently has just a 39 percent approval rating in Minnesota, according to Civiqs, while 52 percent of voters disapprove.
A KARE 11/MPR News/Star Tribune poll conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy from earlier this month showed that Biden led Trump 45-41 percent, but also that they had pretty much the same approval ratings. For Biden, 46.4 percent of likely Minnesota voters approve, while 52.7 percent disapprove. Trump has a 46.6 percent approval rating, with 51.5 percent disapproving. Trump supporters were also far more likely to say they were "very enthusiastic" to vote for him.
"We’re on the ground. I think Joe Biden has been delivering out here,” Walz continued. "When Joe comes out here, he delivers jobs and infrastructure projects, and the former president comes out and delivers grievance."
"If you want to be a swing state, you got to be offering something to voters, and I don’t think [Trump’s] doing that by just saying he’s going to win, so it’ll be close. We’ll get her done, though, for the president," he insisted.
The poll from Emerson College/The Hill isn't the only poll to be released recently. Last week, around the same time, another KSTP/Survey USA poll was put out there. While such polls had previously shown Biden with only a small lead, Biden has more of a lead, 47-41 percent among likely voters.
📊 Minnesota GE: KSTP/Survey USA
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) June 20, 2024
🟦 Biden: 47% [+3]
🟥 Trump: 41% [-1]
🟪 Other: 6% [-3]
[+/- change vs May]
—
• April: Biden +2
• May: Biden +2
• June: Biden +6
—
• Independents: Biden 38-33%
• Suburban voters: Biden 49-39%
• Certain to vote: Biden 48-41%
• Probably… pic.twitter.com/pUqMoiIUio
"What we’re seeing in this survey is that independents and suburbanites are moving slightly in the Democratic direction compared to last month and it could well be the Trump trial is part of that trend," Carleton College political analyst Steven Schier is quoted in the KSTP.com report as saying, referring to Trump's "guilty" verdict last month in the sham hushmoney "trial" that took place in New York City.
However, Schier also expects the race to tighten. As the report mentioned:
Schier says he expected this race to tighten again in the coming months. “We’ll be able to tell if this trend is a lasting trend or simply a blip that disappears once the trial event that may have caused it becomes part of the rear view mirror,” he says, noting several potentially major events in the campaign still to come. “You’ve got the debate between the two presidential candidates next week. You’ve got the national conventions, you’ve got the Trump sentencing on July 11th. Many, many things are happening this summer that could shake up the race.”
Also adding to the volatility in the race is the fact a majority of poll respondents are not satisfied with the choice between Biden and Trump. Sixty percent say they’re not somewhat or very dissatisfied with the choice of candidates, with only 37% expressing some satisfaction.
“Just about every demographic group in the state does not like the choice between Biden and Trump and that adds a lot of volatility to the contest,” Schier says.
As for the Trump trial, 55% say they think he got a fair trial. Only 35% say the trial was unfair. The perception of the fairness of the trial divides along party lines, with 92% of Democrats saying it was fair and 72% of Republicans saying it was unfair. A majority of independents, 51%, also viewed the trial as fair.
That poll was conducted June 12-June 16 with 800 adults, including 626 likely voters. There was a credibility interval of plus or minus 4.5 percentages points.
When releasing their forecast earlier this month, 538 noted that Biden has a 72 percent chance of winning Minnesota. The forecast also found at its launch on June 11 that Biden had a slight edge over Trump when it comes to winning the election, a 53-in-100 chance of winning, compared to Trump's 47-in-100 chance. As of Tuesday afternoon, the forecast shows that Biden has a 51-in-100 chance of winning, while Trump is at 48-in-100 chance, though we've seen this fluctuate between the two candidates.
As reporting from The Hill mentioned, "Decision Desk HQ currently forecasts Biden has a 66 percent chance of winning Minnesota this November."
While 270 to Win regards Minnesota as a state that "Leans Democratic," RealClearPolitics has it, along with Virginia, in the "Toss-Up" category.
Is Minnesota as likely a win as swing states like Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada? Probably not. It might not even be as much of one as Michigan or Wisconsin, or Virginia, where again, there's a Republican governor to champion Trump. It still looks to be one to watch, though, in this election for the ages.
