The November election is not only a seriously consequential one due to the presidential race, though it certainly is. The Senate could very likely flip to Republican control. Democrats currently have a narrow 51-49 majority, and several vulnerable incumbents are defending their seats in red or purple states. Those Republican incumbents considered vulnerable, are meanwhile defending their seats in places like Texas and Florida, also red states. With both former and potentially future President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden on the ballot, it'll be interesting to see if their popularity (or lack thereof) has any kind of coattails effect.
There's been considerable focus on the effect that Biden could have on Senate races. On Monday, the Wall Street Journal published Gerard Baker's opinion piece, wondering "Will Biden Drag Senate Democrats Down With Him?" It's been featured by RealClearPolitics for Tuesday. Last week, The Hill warned that "Alarmed Democrats flee Biden’s ailing brand in battleground states," as Ward Clark at our sister site of RedState covered.
Over the weekend, Fox News did a segment discussing how "in some key swing states, Democratic candidates are leading even as Biden is trailing Trump." States like Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Pennsylvania and Nevada come to mind. Michigan and Arizona are open seats, while vulnerable Democratic incumbents are running for reelection in the rest of them.
Princeton's Lauren Wright came on "Fox News Live," where she offered "both [Trump and Biden] are a drag on these Senate races because they're very controversial to swing voters who are very mad at Biden over the economy, over immigration, over crime." That being said, "they're still not back with Trump from their vote in 2016 because of course he lost in 2020 and he's continued to alienate some swing voters with his positions on abortion and all this legal trouble and making the election about himself," Wright also had to say.
It's worth pointing out that Trump has tried to appeal to voters on the abortion issue, by making clear he sees it as a states rights issue and supports IVF, though that hasn't stopped the Biden campaign from lying about his position. Biden, meanwhile, continues to gaslight about crucial issues mentioned above, such as the economy, immigration, and crime. They're also considered far more important in the polls than abortion to overall voters. When it comes to "all this legal trouble" for Trump that Wright speaks about, that's also been weaponized and continues to be weaponized by Biden and his campaign.
"So really, it's a tough year to run statewide if you're a Republican or a Democrat," Wright continued, as she doubled down on the effect she considers Trump and Biden to have. "They're both a drag on these races."
Later in the segment, Wright was asked "which one, broadly speaking, is it Trump or Biden that is hurting these downticket races more for their party?" In Wright's opinion, that's "hard to say," though she added "frankly, Biden is very unpopular among a lot of voters right now, because on all the issues that they care about, he is behind Trump." Such a point is not only a fitting one, but should concern plenty of Democrats also on the ballot with Biden.
As host Molly Line brought up the example of Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) winning reelection even as Biden won Maine in 2020 coming up, Wright pointed out that former Gov. Larry Hogan (R-MD) could present "a really exciting opportunity for Republicans" in Maryland's Senate race when it comes to split ticket voting. On the other hand, Republican Kari Lake could lose that Senate race to Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego, when "Republicans, in any other election year, with any other candidate at the top of the ticket and in Senate should win that state."
Cook Political Report also seemed to be of the same mind, though there was also focus on how control of the chamber looks good for Republicans with a piece from earlier this month on how "Senate Map Still Puts Democrats in Peril, but Arizona Shifts in Their Favor."
Early on, Jessica Taylor points out that "There is no room for error — and if President Joe Biden loses reelection, they will have already lost the majority whether they run the table in all the competitive seats or not," speaking about the position Senate Democrats find themselves in.
During the segment, specific states such as Pennsylvania, New Jersey (because that's where Wright lives), and Arizona were mentioned. Polling results from various races in battleground states also flashed on the screen.
Using the numbers from a recent poll released by The New York Times/Siena College, Trump is leading Biden in his home state of Pennsylvania by 47-44 percent among registered voters in a head to head matchup, while Democratic Sen. Bob Casey Jr., leads Republican David McCormick by 46-41 percent. In Arizona, one of Trump's best states, he leads Biden 49-42 percent, though Gallego leads Lake 45-41 percent.
That poll also showed that in Nevada, Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen only leads Republican candidate Sam Brown by 40-38 percent. This is a "Toss-Up" Senate race for Rosen, per Cook Political Report. It's also one of Trump's best states, as he leads Biden 50-38 percent in the head to head matchup among registered voters.
Michigan and Wisconsin are likely true "Toss-Up" states for the presidential race. In a head to head matchup among registered voters, Trump leads Biden 49-42 percent in Michigan, and Biden leads Trump 47-45 percent in Wisconsin.
Michigan is an open race, but Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin is running for that seat and likely has an edge. There's a vulnerable Democratic incumbent running in Wisconsin, Sen. Tammy Baldwin, though she leads Republican Eric Hovde 49-40 percent among registered voters.
Overall, RealClearPolling has Trump with leads in all key battleground states, with an overall lead of +3.1. Trump has an overall lead of +0.1 in Wisconsin, +0.5 in Michigan, and it only goes up from there, with a lead of +2.3 in Pennsylvania, +4.0 in Arizona, +4.8 in Georgia and North Carolina, and +5.4 in Nevada.
While there's only so much that can be discussed in one five minute segment, it likely would have been more helpful to really dive into these other states, including how Biden looks to be at risk of losing the "blue wall," which would be a major embarrassment, not to mention would also electorally be a huge problem.
There's also states where it's not a battleground for the presidential race, and Trump will still help the Republican nominee running against the vulnerable incumbent. This is the case with Ohio, where Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is running against Bernie Moreno, and in Montana, where Democratic Sen. Jon Tester will likely face Tim Sheehy. Those are true "Toss-Up" races, and could decide which party controls the chamber.
Before one gets too excited, though, it's worth returning to Baker's opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal. "There is another way of looking at this: The Democratic vote is holding up remarkably well in the Senate seats at stake. On this interpretation, if Mr. Biden’s coattails are negative, Mr. Trump’s are nonexistent," he offers.
It's a good thing for Republicans, then, that Biden is so deeply unpopular in swing states and overall.
