The 2024 presidential election between former and potentially future President Donald and President Joe Biden continues to be close and competitive. We are now officially less than six months away from the election, meaning plenty can still change but also we are getting that much closer to November 5.
According to the latest ABC News/Ipsos poll released on Sunday, Biden leads Trump 46-45 percent with registered voters. Among likely voters his lead grows to 49-45 percent. The poll also showed that Trump has a lead of 46-44 percent among "all adults," but that doesn't really matter unless any of those not registered to vote get registered.
Is that reason for supporters of Trump to despair, though? No, and it also shouldn't make either side cocky. According to RealClearPolling, with that Biden lead of 46-45 percent included, Trump still leads by +1.1.
Another area of potential concern for Trump is how he could be convicted in the hush money payments case brought by Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg. In an unprecedented move, it was the first of several criminal cases brought by the former president, with the announcement coming in late March of last year and with Trump being arraigned on 34 felony counts just days later in early April. Bragg charged Trump with felonies when he could have brought the charges as misdemeanors, was using an untested legal theory, and after the statute of limitations had expired.
It's the first case to take place, and by far the weakest. It's also taking place in a biased venue and with a judge who, along with his adult daughter, look to have a conflict of interest. Acting New York County Supreme Court Justice Juan Manuel Merchan has also found Trump to be in violation of his gag order, and has now even threatened him with jail time.
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We have a clear example of election interference when it comes to these cases against Trump. Eighty percent of Trump supporters said they'd stick by him, while 16 percent said they'd reconsider it, and 4 percent would even withdraw. While the 80 percent is encouraging to the Trump campaign, the other 20 percent should raise some concerns when it comes to how it looks to be such a close election.
It gets better for Trump from there. Just as he has done in so many other polls, Trump leads on the issues that are top of mind for voters. This includes the top three: the economy, inflation, and "crime and safety."
On the economy, 88 percent say it's one of the more important issues in deciding their vote. A plurality, at 44 percent, say it's "one of the single most" important issues." Trump has his second biggest least on the issue, of +14, as 46 percent say they trust Trump more on that issue, compared to the 32 percent who say they trust Biden more. Trump also has a lead pf +14 on inflation, which is one of the more important issues to 85 percent. Forty-four percent trust Trump more, compared to the 30 percent who say Biden. Twenty-five percent say they trust neither. For the "crime and safety" issue, which 77 percent say is a more important issue in deciding their vote, Trump has a lead of 44-31 percent over Biden in who respondents trust more.
The largest lead Trump has, no doubt to Democrats' chagrin, is on "immigration at the U.S.-Mexico border." Forty-seven percent say they trust Trump more on this issue, compared to the 30 percent who trust Biden more, for a difference of +17 for Trump.
In what is very bad news for the Biden campaign, given how much we're so used to hearing about what a supposed threat to democracy that Trump is, is how the two are even on the issue of "protecting democracy," with 38 percent saying they'd trust Biden or Trump more. Twenty-three percent say they trust neither. It's considered the fourth most important issue, with 76 percent say it's one of the more important issues for deciding their vote.
Trump also leads Biden on "gun violence," by 37-34 percent; "America's standing in the world" by 41-34 percent; and "the war between Israel and Hamas" by 37-29 percent. Although this is considered the least important of the 10 issues, one wouldn't know that from how hard the Biden campaign is trying to capitulate to the pro-Hamas base of the party. Even still, more respondents say they trust neither candidate over Biden, with 33 percent saying so.
Biden's biggest lead on the issues, meanwhile, is on "abortion access." Biden has a lead of 41-29 percent over Trump on who respondents trust more, with 28 percent saying neither. Still, it's regarded as at the bottom of the list of those issues voters say is more important in deciding their vote/
Another question that polls have asked when it comes to this unique matchup not seen since 1892, is how respondents approve of Biden, and also how they approve of Trump in comparison, so many years after he left the presidency. Biden has just a 35 percent approval rating, while 57 percent disapprove. Meanwhile, 44 percent now say they approve of Trump handling his job as president, while 50 percent disapprove.
There's another section that isn't good news for Biden or Trump, but it's really bad news for Biden. When asked a series of statements and if they apply to the candidate, a plurality, at 42 percent, said neither "is honest and trustworthy," though Biden had more support than Trump did. A plurality, at 42 percent, said it applies more to Trump that "he has the mental sharpness it takes to serve effectively as president," while 34 percent said neither and just 23 percent said it applies more to Biden. Similarly, 42 percent also said it applies more to Trump that "he is in good enough physical health to serve effectively as president," whereas 37 percent said neither, and just 20 percent said it applies more to Biden.
A small plurality, at 35 percent, said neither "represents your personal values," while 34 percent said it applied more to Biden and 31 percent said to Trump. Another small plurality, at 37 percent, said neither Trump not Biden "understands the problems of people like you," with 32 percent saying it applies more to Biden and 31 percent more to Trump.
The economy isn't just bad news for Biden when it comes to the questions above. Further in the poll, respondents were also asked about their financial situation. A plurality, at 43 percent say they're "not as well off" since Biden became president. Forty percent say they're doing "about the same," and a paltry 16 percent say they're "better off."
"That said, a chief question raised by the survey is why Biden is competitive at all, given his substantial disadvantages," an ABC News write-up still noted. Trump does have more work he can and should be able to do. He and his campaign ought to see an opportunity, especially when he has such an insurmountable lead on the top issues voters care about.
When it comes to such a pessimistic reading for Trump, it's worth reminding that several other polls show bad news for Biden in that Trump leads on key issues, and there are polls where Trump leads.
The poll's write-up, as well as ABC News' "This Week," focused on how poorly Biden is doing with key demographics who helped him win in 2020.
As Rick Klein, ABC News political director highlighted Biden's "carrying black voters by 61 points," noting, "well, that sounds like a lot, but he carried them by 84 points back in 2020. Latino voters, a very slight Biden edge in this poll, but it was a 21-point advantage in the exit polls back in 2020. And among younger voters, under 30, we’re actually seeing Trump with a slight edge." That's particularly huge, considering "that was a big win for Biden last time around."
“Joe Biden viewed favorably by only 40% of the country, 33% of the country only — that’s a third of people overall — have a favorable impression of Donald Trump.” @RickKlein is back with The Break Down on the new ABC News/Ipsos poll. https://t.co/wIKL5mc8Jt pic.twitter.com/zfzUIbQhK5
— This Week (@ThisWeekABC) May 5, 2024
The poll was conducted April 25-30 and included 2,260 adults. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
Cygnal President Brent Buchanan referenced the ABC News/Ipsos poll in his Monday morning roundup of the top three stories he was watching for the day. His "take" focused on how Trump leads on the issues, as well as offered an explanation as to why Trump might not be leading by more.
"On all the issues that matter - most inflation & economy - Trump holds a strong lead in who voters trust more to deal with the issue(s). Biden only leads in two categories - healthcare & abortion. Why isn't Trump leading by more? He hasn't told voters what he's going to do because despite the chaotic style, Trump stays on message for what the majority of voters want to hear," Buchanan noted.
Hopefully Trump will be able to avoid Hillary Clinton's viral cringe moment of asking "why aren't I 50 points ahead, you might ask?" That line came from the Democratic nominee less than two months before the 2016 election, and although she was leading by significant margins in the polls, Clinton of course lost the presidency.
