It looks like 2024 is a presidential election cycle to watch, especially when it coms to which coalitions and groups of voters are looking to favor which candidate, and which are up for grabs by either President Joe Biden or former and potentially future President Donald Trump. One such "emerging" group are those described as "ticked-off, diverse, young working-class" voters, and in this case, they present "both an opportunity and a challenge for Republicans."
The latest Cygnal poll, conducted earlier this month, includes a deep-dive examination of this group as part of their key takeaways, noting these voters, who make up 18 percent, "hold the keys to the White House and Congress."
"This latest national poll shows a new key voter group emerging. They are young, ticked-off, diverse, working-class, and trending toward Republicans. These voters also skew more female, tend to be younger than 45, and a majority voted for Trump in 2020," Cygnal Pollster Mitch Brown also said. "Despite aligning well with the GOP base, these voters are more moderate and slightly more likely to view the Republican Party as more extreme. And while both Trump and Biden are underwater, with Trump just a tad more than Biden, the main difference is that this group is much more inflation focused. At the same time, illegal immigration and tertiary issues like healthcare are distant priorities."
He thus highlighted how "[t]his is both an opportunity and a challenge for Republicans. They will need to speak to those top issues while not appearing extreme on fronts that don’t appeal to those issues if they want to maintain the advantage with 18 percent of the electorate that could swing the outcome of the election."
"Despite aligning well with theGOP Base group, these moderate voters are slightly more likely to view the Republican Party as more extreme," another takeaway also mentions about this group. Forty-three percent of voters overall say that Republicans are more extreme, while 38 percent say Democrats are. This could perhaps be another opportunity and challenge moment, especially since Democrats were previously seen as more extreme, according to last December's poll. "The parties had been tied since the beginning of the year," this most recent poll pointed out.
When it comes to the actual results of the poll, there certainly is an opportunity for Republicans, as Trump has increased his lead by almost +2, to 46.9 percent against Biden's 45.3 percent among voters.
As the takeaways highlighted:
- The Biden-Trump rematch shows Trump increasing his lead to +2 (Trump 47% - Biden 45%), a slight increase from the +1 lead that he has held since January.
- Since last month, Independents have flipped back to Trump (41% - Biden 38% -Undecided 21%), with Trump having a +6 lead among those definitely voting for either candidate.
Trump has slightly more support compared to Biden among those who "always vote," 48-46 percent. For those who vote in a presidential year, Biden has the edge, with 47-42 percent. Trump has a huge advantage with those who are an "occasional vote," 53-27 percent, which certainly speaks to an opportunity. Guy also addressed earlier this week this in reference to other polls, with how "Trump's Secret Weapon in 2024 Is a Double-Edged Sword."
Trump tellingly has more support among his fellow Republicans, with 93 percent saying they'll vote for Trump, and he also holds on more of his support from those who voted for him in 2020, with 92 percent saying they'll vote for him in again. In comparison, Biden has the support of 91 percent from his fellow Democrats and 88 percent of those who voted for him in 2020. That could make a key difference in what looks to be a close and competitive election.
Independents also favor Trump, 41-38 percent. This is the case even when Robert F. Kennedy, Jr and other third-party candidates are mentioned as candidate options, with Trump leading among Independents over Biden and RFK Jr. by 31-29-18 percent. In that matchup against both Biden and RFK Jr., Trump leads with 41.5 percent support to Biden's 39.4 percent support, and RFK Jr.'s 8.6 percent support.
Both Trump and Biden have negative favorables, and Trump actually went down since the March poll, but he's still regarded more favorably than Biden, with a -13.5 net favorable compared to Biden's -17.8 net favorable. A plurality, at 47.2 percent, say they view Biden "very unfavorably." While a plurality say the same for Trump as well, it's slightly lower, at 46.7 percent. Even more prominent is how more voters are likely to say they view him "very favorably," with 28.6 percent saying so, compared to the 21.7 percent who say so about Biden. Another takeaway highlights how Trump is "3 points more favorable with Independents than Biden."
Trump is also viewed as more favorable by his fellow Republicans (85 percent) and those who voted for him in 2020 (83 percent), than Biden is by his fellow Democrats (82 percent) and those who voted for him in 2020 (80 percent).
On the generic ballot, Republicans also have a slight edge, with 46.6 percent compared to 45.4 percent for the Democratic candidate. This includes a lead among Independents as well, 40.9 percent to 37 percent, though 22.1 percent are unsure.
📊 NATIONAL POLL: @cygnal
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) April 18, 2024
🟥 Trump 46.9% (+1.6)
🟦 Biden 45.3%
• Always vote: Trump+2
• Pres. year vote: Biden+5
• Occasional vote: Trump+26
• Suburban: Biden+7
• Swing voter: Biden +7
—
🟥 Trump 41.5% (+2.1)
🟦 Biden 39.4%
🟨 RFK Jr 8.6%
🟨 West 1.8%
🟩 Stein 1.1%
—… pic.twitter.com/0ko9GuGM1v
Another opportunity for Trump is how prevalent inflation is in this poll. "Inflation and economy" is the top most important issue, with 27.6 percent of voters saying so. "Illegal immigration" comes in second, with 24.6 percent saying so. "Threats to democracy" is a distant third, with 11.9 percent saying so.
Where a challenge for Republicans might be among that key demographic of "ticked-off" voters is how for Republicans, immigration is by far their top issue, with 47 percent saying so. Similarly, 46 percent of 2020 Trump voters say so as well.
But again, "illegal immigration and tertiary issues like healthcare are distant priorities," so it will be interesting to see what any, if balance is played on prioritizing the issues, or, if prioritizing different issues slightly more or less could be overlooked by these voters. Republicans do also care about inflation, though, with 30 percent saying so, making it their second most important issue.
Inflation comes up in another question as well, to show that a whopping 91.1 percent of voters are "concerned" about its impact, "with most of the concerns coming from younger women, Republicans, and parents," the takeaway adds. This could present another opportunity as well.
This poll was conducted April 9-10 with 1,500 likely general election voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.53 percentage points.
Such results come as more polls are showing more economic problems for Biden, as previous VIP pieces have covered. Further, 64.4 percent of respondents think the country is on the "wrong track," which can't be a good sign for Biden no matter what.
