I've become somewhat obsessed with this dynamic, as it may very well determine the winner of the presidency in this year's election. We told you about the national poll from Marquette Law School that showed Donald Trump trailing Joe Biden by four points among voters who are locked-in, high-propensity voters -- while leading Biden by 12 points among those who are "registered, but not certain" to vote. Intriguingly, among non-registered voters contacted by the pollster, Trump leads Biden by 28 points. That's why, as we also highlighted, some Democrats are warning against big voter registration drives, understandably worrying that the old theory that higher voter participation automatically benefits Democrats may no longer hold true. I can't help but wonder if the Republican Party and the Trump campaign are equally obsessed with this information. If they want to win, it seems increasingly clear that they really need to be.
New data fortifies the emerging landscape -- via the Associated Press:
🇺🇲 2024 GE: [Among respondents who voted in the 2018, 2020 and 2022 GE]
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) April 14, 2024
🟦 Biden 50% (+11)
🟥 Trump 39%
—
Voted once since 2018
🟥 Trump 45% (+12)
🟦 Biden 33%
—
voted in none of those three elections
🟥 Trump 44% (+18)
🟦 Biden 26%
—
AP/NORC | 2/20-3/18 | n=2,462… pic.twitter.com/4xUPm7uuBw
These are relatively small sub-sample sizes, so proceed with a grain of salt. But the results offer further confirmation of an emerging pattern: Among the very likeliest voters, who show up every time without fail, Biden has an advantage. If the 'high propensity voters' dominate 2024, it will likely be a good night for Democrats. But among the lower propensity group (in this case, people who one voted in one election since 2016 -- likely 2020), Trump is comfortably ahead, by 12 points. Biden falls off a cliff in that subgroup. Then there are the non-participants in the last three cycles. Within this group, Trump is up by nearly 20 points, with Biden only attracting support from one-in-four of these would-be voters. There's been much discussion about Trump's improvement among black voters. In this data set, he's running strongest among blacks who haven't voted in any of the last three elections, only trailing Biden by a ten-point margin (42-32).
This all presents a huge challenge, and a massive opportunity, for Team Trump. 'Low propensity voters' are unreliable voters, by definition. Sometimes they participate, sometimes they don't. Republicans need to identify, contact, and activate the people who are center-right-leaning within this large group. Get ballots into their hands. Get over all the whining about voting systems. Adapt to the rules and exploit them, or lose. Even tougher are the unregistered voters and non-participants, who are even harder to corral. Republicans should be pouring resources into not only getting low-propensity voters access to ballots, but registering and targeting this latter group. This takes effort, coordination, professionalism and resources. The election's outcome could very realistically depend on it. Right now, this race is looking excruciatingly close.
The New York Times survey we analyzed yesterday shows Trump ahead by a single point nationally, which is great news for his campaign, despite some slippage from the previous installment in that polling series. However, it looks less great in light of his large leads on the economy, immigration, foreign policy and crime. He 'should' be leading by more, but he's not. Another similar data point:
New numbers from a New York Times/Siena College poll of 1,059 registered voters conducted April 7 to 11, 2024
— Ryan Saavedra (@RealSaavedra) April 15, 2024
42% said Trump was good for America
25% said Biden was good for America
33% said Trump was bad for America
46% said Biden was bad for America pic.twitter.com/E3Lucg6iLV
Looking only at these numbers, as well as the two candidates' disparate approval ratings on the top issues, one would easily assume Trump is running away with this election. But the same survey's top line result is only Trump +1. With Biden red flags galore, that's a serious one flapping in the Trump campaign's face. At the moment, the top priorities for Team Trump appear to be making 2024 a referendum on the incumbent, minimizing and mitigating the victory-imperiling personal distaste many voters harbor for Trump, and turning out Trump-leaning low-propensity and currently non-registered voters. Biden's lead with high-propensity participants is a really significant advantage that needs to be actively addressed and overcome if Trump wants to win.
