Let's begin by noting that the reason Maryland is even in play for the 2024 election Senate cycle is because Democratic Sen. Ben Cardin is retiring. And what a relief it must be for him, given that his office once employed Aidan Maese-Czeropski, who was allowed to resign rather than be fired for filming his gay sex tape in a Senate hearing room. Earlier this month, U.S. Capitol Police announced that they wouldn't even be bringing charges against Maese-Czeropski. Luckily for Cardin, who wasn't very forthcoming about the incident, he had announced his retirement months before. Maryland is a bright blue state, and weeks ago was not going to be considered to be in play. But then former Gov. Larry Hogan (R-MD) announced last week that he was running.
Forecasters still consider the race to be "Likely Democratic," but that's better than "Solid" or "Safe Democratic," and some forecasters had it as that before Hogan got into the race. Thursday also saw the release of a poll that Emerson College did with The Hill and DC News Now where Hogan is tied or even leading his Democratic opponent.
Hogan leads Prince George's County Executive Angela Alsobooks with 44-37 percent, while he's tied with Democratic Rep. David Trone at 42 percent apiece.
In the Republican primary, Hogan also has a plurality of support at 43 percent, with no other candidate reaching double digit support. Trone leads Alsobrooks with 32-17 percent support.
MARYLAND POLL with @thehill & @DCNewsNow
— Emerson College Polling (@EmersonPolling) February 15, 2024
U.S. Senate Hypothetical Matchups
Larry Hogan (R) 44%
Angela Alsobrooks (D) 37%
19% undecided
Larry Hogan 42%
David Trone (D) 42%
16% undecidedhttps://t.co/bQRSxkgkrT pic.twitter.com/MDlwT2KIsA
A statement from Executive Director of Emerson College Polling Spencer Kimball speaks further to Hogan's chances. "In addition to the majority of Republican voters' support in the general election, Hogan also holds broad appeal in a matchup against Trone among independents, at 48%, and also garners nearly a quarter of Democratic voters' support," he said. "In a matchup between Hogan and Alsobrooks, independents support Hogan 43% to 18%, and 31% of Democrats support Hogan."
The poll was conducted February 12-13 with 1,000 registered Maryland voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points, putting Hogan's lead over Alsobrooks comfortably outside of that.
It looks like the race could be between Hogan and Trone, then. Trone was first elected in 2018, and was considered a vulnerable incumbent in 2022, though he ultimately prevailed against Republican nominee Neil Parrott, just as he had against him in 2020 as well.
When Hogan made his announcement last Friday, there was buzz not only about the former governor's entry in the race, but about Trone as well.
The Politico Playbook PM for February 9 focused on "Two big GOP Senate shakeups," referring to the Maryland race and the Republican primary in Montana, which looks to involve some messy infighting as Republican Rep. Matt Rosendale also announced last Friday that he was looking to chellenge Democratic Sen. Jon Tester, again, in what's one of the "Toss-Up" races. He was in the race for less than a week before he dropped his bid.
Here's what the Playbook mentioned for that day:
Maryland is a tough lift for Republicans, having gone for Biden by more than 30 points in 2020. But Hogan has surprised Democrats before, scoring two gubernatorial victories, and there’s no incumbent in the way. (Rep. DAVID TRONE and Prince George’s County Executive ANGELA ALSOBROOKS are duking it out in the Democratic primary — which, as Burgess notes, “just got a LOT more interesting.”) At the very least, it could force Democrats to spend even more money on defense in a heavily contested race. Sabato’s Crystal Ball is moving its race rating from safe Democratic to likely Democratic.
Everett also shared that Trone is issuing a campaign memo with words he's never seen before, as if it could really be Maryland that decides the fate of the Senate majority.
Granted, a campaign memo is looking to solicit donations and support, but it's not all as far-fetched as it might once have been.
David Trone campaign memo uses words I've never seen before
— Burgess Everett (@burgessev) February 9, 2024
"With the battle for the majority in the United States Senate now running through Maryland ... "
As unthinkable as the idea of a Republican senator for Maryland might otherwise be, if anyone can pull it off, it seems to be Hogan. Our own Spencer made a key point in his coverage from last week about Hogan's announcement, with added emphasis:
Hogan holds the notable status of being only the second Republican ever re-elected as governor of his state, a job he ended with 77 percent of Marylanders approving of the job he did. That means Democrats will likely have to spend heavily in Maryland, and could very well mean a loss of the seat for Senate Dems.
Not only did Hogan win his election in 2014 with 51 percent of the vote, he beat his Democratic opponent in 2018 by over 10 points, with 55.4 percent support to Ben Jealous' 43.5 percent.
Hogan's announcement from last week that he's running for Senate means he won't be running for president, an idea he was once teasing. He had long ago ruled out running as a Republican, though he was considering at one point running as part of the No Labels ticket, a move retiring Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) is considering. Manchin has even generated further buzz, and some social media trends, as he shared who he'd consider as his running mate, with retiring Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT) and former Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH), who retired in 2022, another.
That Hogan was even just considering running for president in 2024 was laughable. The polls did include Hogan in previous years, such as Cygnal, had him at 1 percent. The Republican Party, at least at the national level, very much still belongs to former and potentially future President Donald Trump, and he and Hogan have certainly been at odds. With his Senate run, though, Hogan only has to appeal to Maryland voters, which he's successfully done in the past.
Maryland is also not in play for Trump. He lost the state in 2016 by over 26 points and in 2020 by over 33 points. The Emerson College poll also has President Joe Biden leading Trump 55 percent to 32 percent.
Hogan may not be a MAGA Republican vote in the Senate, but he'll still be a Republican, and better than Trone, Alsobrooks, or whomever else the Democrats nominate. Our own Kurt Schlichter put it best when posting a candid view on what Hogan's time in the Senate would look like.
It's also worth highlighting how Kurt was reposting Hogan sharing his support from Rep. Jared Golden, a Democrat from Maine. If Hogan wants to win in a state like Maryland, he'll certainly need to appeal to the other side, something he very much seems to be doing.
But we’re never going to get anything better for Maryland. I’ll take what we can get. I don’t mind Susan Collins. She doesn’t pretend to be conservative. She is what she is so I can’t be disappointed with her. And I’ll never be disappointed with Larry Hogan because I don’t expect…
— Kurt Schlichter (@KurtSchlichter) February 9, 2024
I find @GovLarryHogan unbelievably annoying. But he’s the most likely Republican to win in Maryland and at worst forces the Democrats to spend money fighting him. Accordingly, I support him while I expect nothing useful from him other than to have an R after his name.
— Kurt Schlichter (@KurtSchlichter) February 10, 2024
Support… https://t.co/kU8qLzY4df
