Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) has mostly stuck to the same message for months as to what his plans are for the 2024 election. He only just revealed last November that he won’t be seeking reelection, though he might still run for president as a third-party candidate. Manchin is a favorite on the Sunday shows, and as Leah covered earlier this week, he appeared on "Fox News Sunday" where he assured host Shannon Bream he would never be "a spoiler on any election." More recently, Manchin spoke to CNN's Manu Raju about his plans. While he still wasn't ready to give a direct answer, the retiring senator did still have some information to share, including on a timeline.
Manchin told Raju that "I think it's too early to be told," but that he thinks "you have the main Democrat candidate and the main Republican candidate after Super Tuesday, it's pretty well sorted out" when is when "they'll start looking at all different alternatives if there is" such an alternative.
Raju pressed Manchin as to if him running would appeal to "moderate Republican voters who disaffected with Trump," questioning "wouldn't that essentially elect Donald Trump then?" As the senator spoke to the disappearance of "very conservative, moderate Democrats," wondering "where have they gone," pointing out that many have become Independents, Raju pressed the issue another way, pointing out "you'd be peeling away Biden's support."
Manchin reminded though that he has said he'd never support Donald Trump, who actually won his state in 2020 by close to 40 points, as well as how he's said he wouldn't be a spoiler.
"I think I've told you I would never be a spoiler. If I saw that spoiling to one side or the other, I mean, I'm very much concerned. I just said, and I've been very clear, I love my country too much to ever support a vote for Donald Trump. That's all I can say," Manchin told Raju, which he claimed was "not personal," as he added "it's just what I've seen, what I've observed and what would happen to our country."
The moderate Democrat nevertheless raised concerns about his party, as he's also done in the past when speaking about a need to come together in the middle.
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"And on the other hand, I would like to see the Democratic Party and our president move more to the center. I think it's going to be very challenging staying in the left in that left lane," Manchin added during the Tuesday conversation.
Manchin: “I've been very clear: I love my country too much to ever support or vote for Donald Trump. That's all I can say. I'm not – it’s not personal it's just what I've seen, what I've observed and what would happen to our country. And on the other hand, I would like to see the…
— Manu Raju (@mkraju) January 16, 2024
Raju made the point that Manchin doesn't have to worry about a primary. Neither does Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who switched from running as a Democratic primary challenger against President Joe Biden to running as an Independent. Biden's primary challengers, the top ones being Marianne Williamson and Rep. Dean Phillips of Minnesota, haven't been faring too well.
Last month, Cygnal released a poll highlighting the impact that third-party candidates like RFK Jr. and Manchin would have on the 2024 race.
"With less than a year until the 2024 election, our final poll of the year offers some clear insights on the potential impact of RFK Jr. and Joe Manchin in a Biden-Trump rematch,” said Vice President of Polling, Brock McCleary at the time of the poll's release. "Despite prevailing narratives suggesting RFK ‘steals’ equally from Trump and Biden, he is hurting Biden more than Trump. Kennedy wins more Democrats and left-leaning Independents than he does Republicans. Add Manchin to the mix, and the race moves back to a tie."
The poll looked to Manchin as if he would be running as a No Labels candidate. In a hypothetical matchup between Trump and President Joe Biden, with Manchin and RFK Jr. in the mix, Biden has 41.3 percent support, with Trump at 41 percent, while Manchin has just 3.3 percent support and RFK Jr. receiving 8 percent support. The polls shows that Manchin would enjoy 6 percent support from Independents, while Republicans and Democrats each only give him 3 percent support.
When respondents are asked to choose between just Biden and Trump, Biden enjoys 47 percent support while Trump is at 45.8 percent support.
That Cygnal poll was conducted December 5-7 with 2,000 likely voters and a margin of error of 2.16 percentage points, showing a tie or only a slight lead for Biden between him and Trump.
Also last month, The Wall Street Journal pointed to how one of their polls showed how Manchin is viewed more unfavorably than favorably by Republicans, Democrats, and Independents alike, though especially by Democrats. Manchin, who it would seem was unperturbed, joked it was "Probably a bad poll."
Despite how he's acknowledged the uphill path for third-party candidates, Manchin has nevertheless been engaging in a "listening tour" in the key early state of New Hampshire and has launched the group known as Americans Together.
🇺🇲 NATIONAL POLL: @cygnal (A)
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) December 14, 2023
Biden: 47% (+1)
Trump: 46%
--
Trump: 43% (+1)
Biden: 42%
RFK Jr: 9%
--
Biden: 41% (=)
Trump: 41%
RFK Jr: 8%
Manchin: 3%
--
Trump: 47% (+6)
Newsom: 41%
—
Gen. Ballot
GOP: 46% (=)
Dem: 46%
2000 LV | 12/5-7 | MoE: ±2.16%https://t.co/FJnaCV4vZL pic.twitter.com/WwPRGW0E2z
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