This Data on GOP Unity Is NOT Surprising

That's why the Roll Call headline from Friday morning, "House GOP had lowest win rate on ‘party unity’ votes since 1982," is hardly shocking. As the write-up mentions about the CQ Roll Call's annual Vote Studies analysis of congressional data from last year:

The data show Republicans had only a 63.7 percent success rate on “party unity votes” or roll calls on bills, amendments and resolutions in which majorities of the two parties were on opposite sides of roll call votes. The metric ignores votes where both parties were overwhelmingly for or against a bill to identify cases where a member’s vote had the most potential to tip the scales one way or another.

The last time a majority party lost more unity votes was when Democrats presided in 1982, the second year of President Ronald Reagan’s first term, and prevailed just 63.5 percent of the time.

The data is regarding the legislation, and the write-up notes that this doesn't even include how it took 15 rounds for former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) to earn the gavel. He was ousted last October when eight Republicans joined all Democrats to remove him after Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) filed a motion to vacate the chair.

While we now have Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), who won every Republican on the first vote, it took several nominees before him, and the House was without a speaker for days. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) was the conference's nominee, though his nomination was pulled; House Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan (R-OH) went through several rounds before the conference went for a new nominee; and House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-MN) withdrew within hours after he became the nominee.

Fittingly, the write-up mentioned that "those fights were certainly symptomatic" still.

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McCarthy ultimately resigned, as have other Republican members of Congress, and Republicans even removed one of their own, now former Rep. George Santos (R-NY). It's quite possible that seat will be held by a Democrat, shrinking the GOP's particularly narrow majority even further. 

To make this lack of unity even more pronounced, a section on "Chaos and control" highlights how Democrats also had a narrow majority in the Senate, 51-49. "While the Senate Democrats and Independents stuck together when it mattered, the incumbent House Republican leaders immediately faced an insurgency from within their ranks that only got worse as the year unfolded."

Another key point is that in 1982 when it was Democrats who were divided, they were divided by geography:

But, [Princeton University politics professor Frances] Lee explained, “A key difference between the 1982 Democrats and the 2023 Republicans is that the 2023 Republicans have been repeatedly stymied by a hard-line bloc, whereas the 1982 Democrats had to contend with a swing moderate/conservative contingent who wanted to work with the Reagan White House.”

Back then, Democrats were divided so much, often by geography, that Congressional Quarterly separately tracked the voting records of the conservative coalition in the House. That dates to when Southern Democrats often aligned with Republicans on social policy issues and against civil rights protections.

The write-up also includes a chart on House party unity from 1956 to 2023, which shows that "the average House Republican voted with their majority at least nine times out of 10 on votes where the parties' majorities were divided."

That number is currently at 90 percent, with the high being 93 in 2016 and 2023. However, for Democrats, it's 95 percent, and their high was at 98 percent in 2021 and 2022. Perhaps that's an even bigger takeaway, how much Democrats stay united, especially in light of how Republicans go after their own while lacking a completely unified willingness to take on Democrats, even in this age of new standards – or lack thereof – with the precedent Democrats have set of going after their political opponents.

The write-up also made a key point about leadership bringing votes. "Leaders usually do not call for votes they know will not pass, but McCarthy agreed to a much more robust amendment process on spending bills than Democrats and even some of his GOP predecessors allowed when they had the majority. The change led to conservative members being able to force amendment votes that had no chance of success," it mentions.

While it was about McCarthy, who did get spending passed with more support from Democrats than his fellow Republicans – as has Johnson – such a point is relevant to this year as well. Johnson faced criticism for bringing a standalone bill providing funding for Israel to the House floor on Tuesday night after the vote to impeach Mayorkas failed when Republican Reps. Ken Buck of Colorado, Tom McClintock of California, and Mike Gallagher of Wisconsin joined with Democrats. That bill also failed with a vote of 250-180, as it did not get the necessary two-thirds support.

Not only did three Republicans vote against impeachment, but Democratic Rep. Al Green of Texas pulled a stunt where he showed up on the House floor in a hospital gown and without shoes to vote against the effort after he had just had an operation the previous Friday. 

What data we do have for last year is certainly not likely to help data for this year, if House Republicans keep this up. Then again, it is only February. 

The write-up also referred to an even more significant loss for House Republicans:

Arguably, the most significant losses for Republicans, however, came on rules themselves. Rules votes, which set the framework for how long debate can take and what amendments are allowed, effectively give the majority its power to set the agenda. They traditionally get near-unanimous support from the ruling party, even if members plan to vote later against the underlying legislation.  Until July 2023, no rule had been defeated on the House floor since November of 2002.

Two of the year’s most significant successful House votes completely divided the majority party, with Republican unity rates slightly above 50 percent against the December measure that expelled Rep. George Santos, R-N.Y., and a September vote on Ukraine security assistance.

Republicans started the year with a 222-213 majority, meaning leaders could afford to lose only four GOP votes and still prevail if every Democrat voted “no.” That was the same split then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi had in 2022, however, when Democrats won 91.4 percent of party unity votes that year, their lowest majority win rate since 2010.

It's not merely this data analysis that speaks to a lack of unity. Last November, PBS News Hour/NPR/Marist put out a poll with some less than flattering takeaways, including how 60 percent of Americans said they saw Democrats as the more unified party, while just 27 percent of Republicans said so.

On a potentially related note, the poll's write-up noted, "A majority of Americans – regardless of politics, race, education or income – say they feel that way, and this level of disdain for Congressional behavior marks a 15-percentage point increase in less than a decade, according to the latest poll." 

Last October, Washington Monthly offered some ideas on "Why Are Democrats Unified and Republicans in Chaos?" Among the suggestions included:

• Credit to Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY)
• Differences from when Dennis Hastert served as the Republican Speaker of the House from 1998-2007.
• Democrats, supposedly, having more moderates
• The suggestion that "GOP voters don’t want compromise because they don’t want much from government"

What does this mean for House Republicans for the 2024 election? If it wasn't a presidential year, there would be cause for concern about the GOP's their fragile majority, as enough voters might realize Republicans have squandered it.

But, if former and potentially future President Donald Trump is indeed the Republican nominee, House Republicans may benefit from riding his coattails. Trump is currently up +1.9 against President Joe Biden in a hypothetical rematch for November, while Republicans are up +2.0 in the 2024 generic congressional ballot polling, according to RealClearPolling.