We're officially in an election year, and it continues to look like 2024 will be a rematch of 2020 between former and potentially future President Donald Trump and current President Joe Biden. The first nominating contest is just ten days away, with the Iowa Republican Caucus, where we might have more of an indication of how the Republican primary will set up. But following the primary comes what looks to be a chaotic general election, as polls show.
One poll in particular comes from USA TODAY/Suffolk University, as it focuses on concerns over whether the 2024 election will be fair and accurate. The tone of the poll's write-up doesn't exactly help. The headline focuses on the anniversary of January 6, as it reads, "Ahead of Jan. 6, poll flashes warning signs about 2024 election aftermath."
The write-up begins:
Supporters of Donald Trump − who generally accept his unsubstantiated claims that the 2020 election was fraudulent − are prepared to believe those allegations again in 2024, setting the stage for protests and worse if the former president runs and loses in November.
On the third anniversary of the Jan. 6 Capitol riot, an exclusive USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll shows not only a deeply held lack of faith in election integrity among GOP voters but also fears among voters across the political spectrum about threats to America's democracy.
Doubts and fraud claims marked the aftermath of the 2020 election, and the country could well be headed for a repeat of that. In the 2020 aftermath, the doubts and claims culminated in violence. Whether that happens again is anyone's guess, but the level of doubt indicated by the poll raises warning signs.
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The findings spotlight the political schism and a deep skepticism among Trump supporters about whether this year's election results could be trusted and should be accepted − some of the same attitudes that in 2021 fueled the nation's most serious insurrection since the Civil War.
Perhaps USA Today could help the situation, or at least not make it worse, by not painting Trump supporters with such a broad brush. The write-up also goes with the Biden administration's fearmongering by not only referring to the day's events as an "insurrection" but bringing the Civil War into it.
Speaking about the Biden administration, the president is still obsessed with bringing up the significance of the date, three years later. It's even the focus of his campaign ad released earlier this week, as Leah and Matt highlighted.
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Biden will speak at a campaign event in Valley Forge on Friday about January 6. He was supposed to do so on the actual anniversary, but concerns about bad weather changed the timeline.
Biden just released his first ad of 2024.
— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) January 4, 2024
The main threat to this country? You. pic.twitter.com/sIEKvUfDzJ
Regarding the poll's findings that would lead to such a tone, 52 percent of Trump supporters said they had no confidence that the results of the 2024 election would be accurately counted and reported, while 38 percent were "somewhat" confident. The differences were stark with Biden supporters, as 81 percent say they are "very confident" and 3 percent "not confident." Fifteen percent of Biden voters were "somewhat confident."
It will be interesting to see what those sentiments are among both Trump and Biden supporters – assuming those men are their party's nominee – if Trump emerges victorious from November's election.
When it comes to the 67 percent of Trump supporters who didn't believe that Biden was legitimately elected and the 98 percent of Biden supporters and 82 percent of third-party supporters who do believe he was, the poll discusses as much in a section devoted entirely to "Debunked allegations still believed by some."
The poll also discusses concerns about democracy, with 83 percent saying they're worried "a great deal." As the write-up also notes:
But that broad alarm didn't reflect a true national consensus. Those on each side of the partisan divide blamed the other side for imperiling democracy. Forty percent (mostly Republicans) said Democrats were chiefly responsible for the threat; another 40% (mostly Democrats) said Republicans were.
In response to an open-ended question about what specific threat worries them, the most frequent answer was Donald Trump, cited by 18%. Another 10% named governmental corruption and dysfunction. "Democrats/liberals/progressives" were cited by 7%; "MAGA/Trump followers" by 3% and "Republicans/conservatives" by another 3%. Eight percent named "immigration/open borders"; 7% "dictatorship/authoritarianism"; and another 7% "loss of personal rights."
While Biden and his fellow Democrats have looked to make "democracy" a campaign focus, Trump is getting in on this as well. On Friday morning, the MAGA Inc. PAC sent out an email warning how "Joe Biden Is A Threat To Democracy," with a statement from spokesperson Karoline Leavitt.
"Since taking office, Joe Biden has taken actions that threaten our democracy and the American way of life. Biden has abused his power to target critics, activists, concerned parents, and his main political opponent, President Donald Trump. Americans will reject Biden's divisive policies when they re-elect President Trump next November to make America safe, strong, and prosperous again," she said.
There's also a section on January 6, including how voters feel about Trump's role. While the write-up tried to downplay the blame for the former president by writing that "[t]he assessment of Trump's role hasn't changed much over the past three years," the number of those who said he bore "a lot of the blame" went from 48 percent in 2021 to 43 percent with this poll. In 2021 and now, 28 percent said Trump bore "no blame."
And yet still, for all of the poll's fearmongering about Trump, it's also mentioned that Trump has an edge, with 44 percent to Biden's 43 percent. When third-party candidates are included, Trump leads 39 percent to Biden's 37 percent. When third-party candidates are listed by name, Trump enjoys 37 percent support to Biden's 34 percent support, while Robert F. Kennedy Jr. enjoys 10 percent support.
The poll was conducted December 26-29 with 1,000 registered voters with a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.
This wasn't the only headline about the poll's results that USA Today put out. Another warned how "A fraying coalition: Black, Hispanic, young voters abandon Biden as election year begins," which Guy analyzed earlier this week, though he also provided a word of caution.
Some key takeaways, and alarming ones for Biden, include how just 63 percent of black voters support Biden for 2024, he's trailing with Hispanic voters 39-34 percent, and Trump leading with young voters, 37-33 percent. Previous VIP pieces, including from late last year, have also examined who young people support. All three groups were crucial to Biden's victory in 2020.
Trump has an edge over Biden overall of +2.2, according to RealClearPolling.
