A new year has arrived, but the political struggles for Joe Biden remain very familiar. USA Today and Suffolk University have released new data showing the Democratic incumbent president narrowly trailing his predecessor, Donald Trump, in a hypothetical rematch later this fall. Each man holds a commanding national lead in their respective nominating processes, so said rematch feels less and less hypothetical by the day. The survey contains hopeful data for each campaign -- including Trump's, who leads Biden by two percentage points, though these vote shares have me a bit skeptical. Have a look at these top line results, then read on:
USA Today poll
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) January 2, 2024
Trump 39
Biden 37
Someone else 17 https://t.co/heGVGWjIpN
On one hand, polling has long shown that a large majority of Americans are displeased with the prospect of another Biden/Trump match-up, so seeing them languishing in the 30's, with a substantial double digit percentage looking elsewhere, isn't necessarily stunning or out of place. On the other hand, when voters actually set about voting, many skeptics tend to "come home" and pick one of the major party choices. For instance, in 2016, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump were two of the least favorably-viewed nominees in American history. A significant majority of the electorate viewed the pair unfavorably, per pre-election surveys and exit polls. Nevertheless, despite various other options on the ballot, those two combined for roughly 94 percent of the raw vote total. If alternate parties couldn't come close to cracking double digits that cycle, I'm not convinced 17 percent is remotely realistic this time around.
When this pollster listed actual names (rather than asking about a generic third party), Trump and Biden's projected vote shares declined a bit, with the former's lead slightly expanding: "When seven candidates are specified by name, Trump's lead inches up to 3 percentage points, 37%-34%, with independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at the top of the third-party candidates at 10%." Overall, Biden's biggest problem is the recent Democratic coalition appearing frayed, dissatisfied, and unmotivated on his behalf:
President Joe Biden heads into the election year showing alarming weakness among stalwarts of the Democratic base, with Donald Trump leading among Hispanic voters and young people. One in 5 Black voters now say they'll support a third-party candidate in November...Biden now claims the support of just 63% of Black voters, a precipitous decline from the 87% he carried in 2020, according to the Roper Center. He trails among Hispanic voters by 5 percentage points, 39%-34%; in 2020 he had swamped Trump among that demographic group 2 to 1, 65%-32%...And among voters under 35, a generation largely at odds with the GOP on issues such as abortion access and climate change, Trump now leads 37%-33%. Younger voters overwhelmingly backed Biden in 2020...The challenge for Biden is to increase not only his support but also voter enthusiasm so his supporters bother to cast a ballot in November. In the poll, 44% of Trump supporters describe themselves as a "10" on a thermometer measuring enthusiasm, the highest possible level. Among Biden supporters, fewer than half that number, 18%, call themselves a "10".
A few highly unscientific gut checks: (1) Biden's victory coalition looking bruised and tattered is not an outlier in this poll. We've seen it before, repeatedly. It's a major concern for Democrats. That said (2), I simply cannot bring myself to believe that Biden is at risk of ending up anywhere in the neighborhood of 63 percent support among black voters. No way. His percentage could decline compared to 2020, which would be a big problem unto itself, but I'll be outright stunned if it's south of 80 percent. (3) Republicans have been improving their performance among Hispanics lately, so it's not at all difficult to envision that trajectory continuing this year. Trump winning that demographic outright, nationwide, may be a stretch, but it's less of one than the aforementioned findings among African-Americans. (4) Donald Trump got crushed among young voters a few years ago. If he wins Americans under 35 in November, I'll eat my hat. To that end, this poll points to a significant glimmer of optimism for the Biden campaign among these groups, although there's a counter-point to this, as well:
The possible good news for the president is that much of the support he needs to rebuild has drifted to third-party candidates, not into the camp of his likely opponent. Twenty percent of Hispanic and Black voters, and 21% of young voters, now say they'll back someone other than the two main contenders.
Disproportionately, the survey finds, those who currently say they're flirting with various third party figures appear to be more likely to align with Biden than Trump politically. So if there's a widespread "coming home" phenomenon -- and the Democrats will spend a billion dollars in pursuit of exactly that, while savaging Trump in an effort to peel away any gains he may be making -- Biden stands to benefit more than Trump does. In other words, in spite of this profound vulnerabilities, the incumbent could have the higher ceiling. On the flip side, while I'd be astounded to see Biden perform this poorly within certain demographics vis-a-vis Trump, the 'stay at home' factor should be a major source of anxiety for Biden and his party. Disaffected and frustrated Democrat-leaners may not show up and pull the lever for Trump, but substantial numbers of them might not show up at all. Considering how tight the margins were in a handful of decisive states in 2020, relatively minor swings could make all the difference. And Trump, at least for now, looks like he's over-performing in key states.
I'll leave you with two more data points from the USA Today/Suffolk poll. First, economic perceptions are improving, which is obviously good news for the party in power. But even with this improvement, the general picture remains decidedly dark. And second, Biden's running mate isn't exactly looking like an asset for him -- either as a member of his ticket, or as a top contender being discussed to replace him if he's pressured to stand down:
USA Today/Suffolk Poll: 29% say the economy is in recovery (+8% from October) — the highest level since August 2021.
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) January 1, 2024
Suffolk (A-) | 1,000 LV | 12/26-29 | ±3.1%https://t.co/abv9KFly6B pic.twitter.com/RlUaiswmaw
The Biden team has dispatched Vice President Kamala Harris as a natural emissary to university campuses, including some historically Black colleges. She is the first Black and Asian-American to serve as vice president, and at age 59 she is a generation younger than Biden, who is 81. But the findings reveal difficulties she herself has with the Democratic base. She gets lower job approval ratings than Biden among Black voters, 56% compared with 68%. She lags Biden among voters younger than 35, too, at 27% compared with 32%. Overall, Biden's job approval rating is 39% approve, 58% disapprove. Of those, 43% "strongly" disapprove and 13% "strongly" approve. Harris' job approval rating is 33% approve, 57% disapprove. Of those, 40% "strongly" disapprove and 7% "strongly" approve.
Harris' job approval is six points lower than Biden's with disapproval nearly as high. The notion that she'd be thrust into the biggest job in the world isn't some remote thought experiment, given Biden's age. Voters are going to be thinking about that, as they should. She's a liability.
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