The New York Times/Siena College had a poll out over the weekend that has everyone talking, from both sides of the aisle. In many ways, it's sending Democrats into panic mode. There are those who write off the concerns, mainly because the election is still a year away. They do have a point, and conditions can change, not just for President Joe Biden, but for former and potentially future President Donald Trump. But, when it comes to a major concern that voters--including fellow Democrats--have, the almost 81-year-old Biden isn't getting any younger. He's still acting and sounding like our nation's oldest president.
Guy and Sarah both provided analysis on the poll, and it is not looking good for Biden in key swing states that are likely a must-win. They're also states where, if Trump won them in 2024, he would be making a comeback from 2020, including Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Biden won all of them, and yet Trump is leading in all of them now except in Wisconsin, where Biden is leading 47-45 percent.
The margin of error is 4.4 to 4.8 percent per state, with Trump's lead being above that in Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, and close to it in Pennsylvania.
Among those Democrats sounding the alarm is David Axelrod, who isn't just any political strategist. He was the chief strategist to President Barack Obama's presidential campaigns, with Biden serving as Obama's vice president. There's been chatter that Obama is more involved in the Biden administration than we might think, especially with a recent report about the executive order on Artificial Intelligence.
Axelrod posted a thread to his X account, sharing not just the takeaways from the poll, but his own thoughts as well. Axelrod sang the president's supposed accomplishments, though he also warned "the stakes of miscalculation here are too dramatic to ignore."
One post also called on Biden to be the one to make that decision, though he also raised the question as to if it's even in the country's best interest. "What he needs to decide is whether that is wise; whether it's in HIS best interest or the country's?," Axelrod closed his thread with.
This poll and others would suggest voters don't think it's in the country's best interest for Biden to run and be reelected.
The thread was included in RealClearPolitics' Monday edition, as was John Della Volpe's guest essay in The New York Times, "Joe Biden Is in Trouble."
This isn't even the only recent poll out with bad news for Biden. As Spencer and I addressed, the CBS News/YouGov poll not only spelled bad news for the incumbent president supposedly running for reelection, it spelled good news for Trump. RCP highlighted that poll in their Tuesday morning edition.
There was still another one, this one from ABC News/Ipsos, which showed that Republicans lead with double digit support on a variety of issues, including on the top issue of the economy, by 35-25 percent. They lead on inflation by 35-21 percent. The poll also found that 76 percent of respondents think that the country is headed in the wrong direction, compared to how just 23 percent think it's on the right track.
The poll was conducted November 3-4 with 949 adults and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.
Host George Stephanopoulos mentioned the poll during Sunday's episode of "This Week," as he pointed out "the poll confirms what we've been seeing," that "voters in a sour mood." Rick Klein, the ABC News Political Director concurred, noting "voters are just plain frustrated across the board."
Stephanopoulos also discussed the various polls with the Sunday panel. Although former DNC Chairwoman Donna Brazile said "don't count out Joe Biden," she did regard the poll as "a wakeup call once again for Democrats."
The conversation shifted to discussing who would be Biden's replacement, though the AP's Julie Pace noted "I think the problem that Democrats have is they don't know who that Democrat would be right now," adding "I don't think that people look at Kamala Harris and feel like she is ready to take that step forward."
AP’s @JuliePace says Democrats don’t know who they could put forward for the presidential nomination in 2024 other than Joe Biden.
— This Week (@ThisWeekABC) November 5, 2023
“I don't think that people look at Kamala Harris and feel like she is ready to take that step forward.” https://t.co/P7UCWh4VKN pic.twitter.com/IOK0xyLmkm
If Biden isn't the nominee, then who is? Again, it's likely not the vice president, as she's far too unpopular, though she'll likely remain on the ticket as the running mate since kicking off a black woman would anger the base far too much.
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) laid out the case very carefully in a September episode of his and co-host Ben Ferguson's podcast, "The Verdict," as we covered at the time:
Among the top candidates Cruz predicts include Harris; Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg; California Gov. Gavin Newsom, as so many others have predicted despite his insisting otherwise; and Massachusetts' Sen. Elizabeth Warren.
This is only the first scenario, though, as there's another one that Cruz warns "is more likely, and a heck of a lot more dangerous." That too has to do with Biden's age and mental capabilities, and it avoids the candidates who don't get picked being "pissed."
If at this time, "Biden's mental diminishment has gotten even worse and it to becomes obvious to anyone that he can't find his shoes, and Democrats decide okay, all of this downside is really worrying us, then the convention is the opportunity to parachute someone in," Cruz offered. "You parachute someone in by having some some story that for health reasons Biden's not able to continue."
Cruz admitted "how the Democrats execute that exactly, I don't know," but he also reminded that "the Democrats are very big on smoke filled rooms and forcing through the outcome they want and they obey orders," and that they also have super delegates with disproportionate power, which Republicans do not have. As Cruz framed it, these super delegates "have the ability to really move the votes."
While "the natural thing to say" might involve choosing one of those four that Cruz mentioned above, and Harris might, "in some ways [be] the natural choice," concerns still remain, especially when it comes to picking white candidates over Harris as a black woman.
Cruz thus predicts that "the Democrat kingmakers jettison Joe Biden, and parachute in Michelle Obama." While Cruz and Ferguson paused and reflected and smiled about it, the senator emphasized "I view this as a very serious danger."
Picking Obama not only avoids "infuriat[ing]" black women, but "you avoid the problem you pick from any of the four the other three are pissed, because they're all to some extent, peers, their rivals, they're all jabbing knives at each other," Cruz pointed out, who "can all fight it out next time."
Michelle Obama herself has some sort of charm as the former first lady, as sort of an idea of "the Obamas saving the day." As Cruz added, "in terms of a solution that unifies Democrats, there ain't nothing like that."
While Cruz opined that Michelle Obama is likely not so eager to actually be president, and he doesn't know if she would do it, he was more certain in his view that former President Barack Obama is running the show. "I do think Barack Obama is already running the Biden administration. I think he is already the puppet master behind this Biden White House, I don't think Joe Biden is the decision maker," he offered.
That narrative about the media turning on Biden that is mentioned so much throughout this episode is also at play here as well. "And so when I see the media turning on Joe Biden right now, I think the odds of Michelle Obama parachuting in in August of 2024, have risen dramatically. And that ought to scare the hell out of anyone who who is unhappy about the direction this country is going and doesn't want us to go even crazier, in an even worse direction," Cruz declared.
The idea of Michelle Obama running becomes a lot less nonsensical when one remembers, as Cruz pointed out, that Hillary Clinton "was presumed to be the heir apparent," after also serving as first lady during President Bill Clinton's two terms.
"And so the dynamic from Barack to Michelle, listen, the Democrats are dynastic. The Democrats are top down the Democrats are command and control," Cruz reminded as he brought it back to why one of the other candidates aren't likely to be nominated if Biden doesn't run. "And it's because Michelle has a claim to already being at a higher level in the Democrat pecking order than any of the other contenders. It's the only solution for Democrat power brokers. That doesn't cause a civil war."
In discussing the political views of the former first lady and potentially future Democratic nominee, Cruz warned she is "further left than Barack" and " further left than Joe Biden," offering "I think as a president, she would be disastrous."
With her "really high positives" and "relatively low negatives," including how Americans feel "fondly" of her as the former first lady, Michelle Obama at the top of the ticket paints an opportunity for Democrats.
"And if she parachutes in in August, with big positives and relatively low negatives, and she can also say, 'hey, all the things Joe Biden screwed up on that wasn't me...' that is really potent politically."
"If I were a Democrat, I'd be excited about that," Cruz shared.
Cruz discussed the possibility more recently as well, during Monday's appearance on SiriusXM's "The Megyn Kelly Show."
"The chances are rising dramatically that the Democrats at their convention next summer will dump Joe Biden and parachute in Michelle Obama as the nominee. And I think that will be incredibly dangerous. I don’t want to see that happen, but I don’t want people to be surprised if-and-when that happens. And I think that Axelrod’s step today has just increased the chances of that significantly," he shared.
Recall how another ABC News poll from September found Trump leading Biden as well. It was widely regarded as an "outlier." As ABC's Jonathan Karl mentioned when discussing the more recent polls during the panel discussion, "it's not an outlier," adding "we have seen similar polls like this that shows that hypothetical match-up which doesn't seem all that hypothetical anymore, Biden versus Trump. It shows that he can actually win and he's leading in these battleground states."
