It was a rough weekend for President Joe Biden. The nearly 81-year-old president spent his time in Delaware, as he so frequently does. We're still a year out from the general election, which could quite possibly be a rematch between Biden and former and potentially future President Donald Trump, but the various polls released still do contain some keen insight. It's the kind that may make Biden want to think twice about spending so much time away while the world burns, all while he's supposedly still running for reelection.
One year before the 2024 election, CBS News polling shows Donald Trump three points over Pres. Biden in a potential rematch. Our polls show more voters think they'd be better off financially if Trump wins, and more think Trump can keep the U.S. out of war. https://t.co/lbgsIjmP9E pic.twitter.com/2SQvSphQja
— CBS News (@CBSNews) November 5, 2023
One such poll released included the CBS News poll, with its headline creating quite a more hopeful view of the country if voters pick Trump for a second term over Biden. "If Trump wins, more voters foresee better finances, staying out of war — CBS News poll," that headline reads.
As the write-up mentioned, it's a mixture of things going badly for Biden and well for Trump:
With views of things in America continuing to be bad and now hitting their most negative marks of the year, one might expect an incumbent president to trail in a pre-election poll — as Joe Biden does in this one. But that's only half the story. The other half is that Donald Trump holds distinct advantages in his own right when voters look forward: More voters think they'd be better off financially if Trump wins in 2024, and more voters think it's Trump who can keep the U.S. out of a war, if he wins.
Mr. Biden's Democratic base looks a little more shaky than Trump's going into next year, too, which isn't helping him. On those financial measures, Mr. Biden hasn't fully made the case to his fellow Democrats that he'll help them financially, or address inequality — certainly not in the way Trump has convinced Republicans.
According to this latest CBS News/YouGov poll, Trump leads with 51 percent to Biden's 48 percent. RealClearPolitics currently has Trump with an advantage of +0.9, with 45.6 percent to Biden's 44.7 percent.
This is especially key given that respondents do not think the country is doing too well right now. Just 5 percent of respondents say "very well" when asked about how "things in America today are going." A plurality, at 37 percent, say "very badly," while 36 percent "somewhat badly." The number of Americans who agree things are going badly is up at an all time high, which is one of many reasons as to why the incumbent president is doing so badly.
The % of Americans who think things are going badly today has hit a high for the year - so we might expect any incumbent to be down.
— CBS News Poll (@CBSNewsPoll) November 5, 2023
And Biden is trailing Trump in a potential 2024 match-up by 3 points. https://t.co/XyjrRAogP3 pic.twitter.com/z84n9zb6wO
A tremendous issue for Biden has been on the economy, despite how much he and the administration try to sell Bidenomics. Spencer highlighted another poll bringing very bad news for the president, in this case one from The New York Times/Siena College, which shows 81 percent of Americans believe the economy under Biden is "fair" or "poor" while just 19 percent say it's "excellent" or "good."
The American people thus agree that they'd be better financially under Trump, with 45 percent of likely voters saying so. However, 48 percent think they'd be financially worse off under a second Biden term.
"Americans have long described financial setbacks because of inflation and interest rates. Those who feel they're worse off financially are backing Trump," the poll's write-up mentions with original emphasis. "And this isn't just punitive toward Mr. Biden — those voters overwhelmingly think they will be financially better off if Trump wins."
This also affects race as well, given that Biden is not where he ought to be with Hispanic and black voters. "Those financial factors may be hurting Mr. Biden with Black and Hispanic voters, key parts of the Democratic coalition, who are not convinced they would be helped financially if he wins a second term," the write-up mentions. "Hispanic voters are much likelier to say their finances would improve under Trump than Mr. Biden. And most Black voters do not expect their finances to change if Mr. Biden wins again,"
The feelings of Hispanic voters are similar to overall respondents here, in that just 19 percent of Hispanics believe they'll be financially better off under a second Biden term, while 45 percent think they'll be worse off. Under a second Trump term, however, 47 percent think they'll be better off.
Trump holds advantages when voters look forward:
— CBS News Poll (@CBSNewsPoll) November 5, 2023
More voters think they'd be better off financially if Trump wins in 2024.
Biden for his part hasn't convinced as many of his own Dems he'd help them financially -
certainly not in the way Trump has convinced Reps. pic.twitter.com/RCQgaQsMK7
Trump has often spoken about not just the economy, but America's view on the world stage, and how our enemies and our allies regard us. The poll findings indicate the American people may share his concern.
And it’s Trump more than Biden who is more widely viewed as decreasing the chance of the U.S. being in a war, and also more seen as able to increase peace & stability in the world.https://t.co/XyjrRAogP3 pic.twitter.com/Kc5gsINL8q
— CBS News Poll (@CBSNewsPoll) November 5, 2023
Under Biden, there's not only been the catastrophic withdrawal from Afghanistan, but Russia invaded Ukraine during his presidency and Hamas perpetuated a terrorist attack against Israel. And yet the administration has bragged about the president visiting two war zones during his time in office, as we highlighted in another VIP piece about Biden's handling of foreign policy.
If Biden wins, close to a majority of likely voters, at 49 percent, believe his policies would "increase chances of the US being in a war overseas," while a plurality, at 43 percent, say if Trump wins, his polices would "dercrwase the chances of the US being in a war overseas."
Similarly, a plurality of likely voters, at 47 percent, say Trump's policies would "increase peace & stability," while a plurality, at 43 percent, say Biden's policies would "decrease peace & stability."
The president is facing a lack of support when it comes to how even Democrats have concerns Biden won't keep us out of war. "Mr. Biden gets less than the full backing from his own party: Democrats are less confident in Mr. Biden decreasing the chances of war in a second term than Republicans are in Trump," the poll's write-up mentioned.
The Israel-Hamas war may be particularly precarious for Biden, as his own party is full of anti-Israeli voters, as well as even members of Congress and White House staffers. "Specifically, on Israel, each set of partisans think their candidate would back Israel the right amount. That's the majority sentiment within Mr. Biden's own party, but a third of Democrats think Biden would back Israel too much--which in turn undercuts Mr. Biden overall on this measure," the write-up added.
When it comes to how the United States will be viewed under each man, Trump holds an advantage except for when it comes to us being "liked." If Biden wins, 41 percent of likely voters think that we will be "respected," but just 18 percent think we'll be "feared," and 30 percent think we'll be "admired," while 51 percent think we'll be "admired." If Trump were to win, 52 percent say we'd be "respected," while a whopping 72 percent think we'd be "feared," with even 71 percent of Democrats feeling as much. Thirty-two percent say we'd be "admired," while 25 percent say we'd be "liked."
The poll also shows an advantage in momentum between Biden voters versus Trump voters. While 74 percent of likely Biden voters say they'd be "nervous" or "frustrated" about a Biden v. Trump rematch, just 50 percent say they'd be "motivtated" and only 38 percent they'd be "hopeful." On the other hand, 64 percent of likely Trump voters said they'd be "hopeful" and 62 prcent would be "motivated." Although a majority would still be "nervous" or "frusrated," it's by smaller numbers, at 59 percent and 57 percent, respectively.
How do each candidate’s voters feel about the idea of a rematch?
— CBS News Poll (@CBSNewsPoll) November 5, 2023
There's plenty of frustration & nervousness, including among Biden’s voters.
It's more Trump voters who express being hopeful and motivated. https://t.co/XyjrRAogP3 pic.twitter.com/RrrOzWYSVe
The CBS News poll was conducted October 30-November 3 with 2,636 adults, which included 1,759 likely voters for whom there was a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.
CBS News' Director of Election Anthony Salvanto appeared on the network's Sunday episode of "Face the Nation" to discuss and summarize the kind findings.
Sunday marks one year to the 2024 election, and new CBS News polling shows Pres. Biden continues to trail Donald Trump in a potential rematch. This comes as the number of Americans who say things are going badly for the country has hit its high for the year, @salvantocbs explains pic.twitter.com/qW0YlnUou4
— Face The Nation (@FaceTheNation) November 5, 2023
