President Joe Biden is vulnerable in 2024, but so is Donald Trump, who is likely to be the Republican nominee. The American people do not seem to want a rematch of 2020, but that's likely what they're going to get. Although we're very much a two-party system, there's been chatter about a third-party option thanks to a group known as No Labels, especially if Trump is indeed the GOP nominee. That Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) remains coy on his plans for 2024 has led to even more speculation, especially when it comes to what he is willing to say on the matter.
Monday morning, USA Today published an op-ed from Manchin, "Extremist Democrats and Republicans threaten America's future." It also made the Monday edition of RealClearPolitics (RCP).
In it, Manchin made the same point he's been making for months. He won't yet say whether he's running for reelection or for president in 2024, but he lamented what he says has been extremism from both parties and talked about a need to come together in the middle.
Even his subheadline was more direct than he has been so far, reading, "I believe there is no greater threat to the soul or success of America than those – from the extreme left and right – who seek to profit from the toxic political divisions tearing the nation apart."
Manchin capitalized on that view early on in his article:
Let's be brutally honest about the political reality we live in today. The extremes on the left and right now control the Democratic and Republican Parties, defining our politics and policy debates. These partisan extremes are in the business of feeding political division and dysfunction everyday – and their business is booming.
As Manchin went on to argue, these party extremists benefit from such divisions, adding, "Partisan leaders on both sides of the aisle are increasingly threatened by the growing desire for debate."
Manchin sells himself by not just speaking about all the chatter and speculation, as he spoke at a No Labels event in New Hampshire last week. He goes on to portray himself as someone who is not like those "extremists" or "partisan leaders." He writes:
But I am not threatened by debate. Instead, I believe America is stronger when we are provided forums that invest in the discussions surrounding the most important issues facing us. What is clear to all those who wish to listen is that the overwhelming majority of Americans believe in unity. We are stronger as a nation when we embrace compromise, common sense and common ground. So why is common sense absent from our policy debates?
The West Virginia senator went on to list specific issues such as inflation, the debt, and energy. In his closing, Machin stated:
I will forever believe in the promise of America, not the promises of any political party. I believe there is a better way to govern and lead this nation forward that embraces respectful discourse, debate and discussion.
Given the plague of issues we now confront, as well as the moment of history we find ourselves in, I sincerely believe there is no greater threat to the soul or success of America than those – from the extreme left and right – who seek to profit from these toxic political divisions that are tearing this nation apart.
Being a Republican, Democrat or independent does not make you my enemy, nor should it define whom I can work with. The path to solving our nation’s biggest challenges does not lie in us screaming at each other, belittling the other or threatening those who may disagree with us.
Some will argue that such a movement is doomed to fail or that two parties have too much power. Would you expect those who could lose their power over the political system they have broken to say anything else? While I can’t change them, I will continue doing everything I can to help build a commonsense movement that will usher in a new, more hopeful and optimistic era for American politics.
What's interesting is that while Manchin does make it a point to call out both parties, he calls out his fellow Democrats and even the Biden administration specifically, especially on energy, an issue Manchin is well-versed in:
Our nation’s energy security or lack thereof is one of the most significant issues facing us. Last year, Congress passed and the president signed a law that was truly an all-of-the-above energy bill ‒ requiring increased fossil fuel leasing on federal lands and historic investments in energy technologies that will ensure America is leading the world.
Despite that, this administration refuses to implement the law as intended because officials are more concerned with pleasing the far left of the Democratic Party. The consequences of their poor implementation play right into the hands of China and other adversaries while driving up energy costs for American families, jeopardizing our energy independence and ultimately our ability to remain the greatest superpower that has ever existed.
That law, of course, is the so-called Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which Manchin acknowledged at the time wouldn't actually help inflation in the short term. In the previous paragraph, Manchin stated that the issue of inflation was a "chronic" one.
Democrat Sen. Joe Manchin admits the Bidenflation Scam won't "immediately" reduce prices.
— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) August 18, 2022
"Why would it?" pic.twitter.com/BBqKuHJB8V
Manchin has made his distaste for the administration's handling of the law particularly known in his role as chairman of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee. In May, he announced a hold on EPA nominees.
While Manchin has lambasted the law and threatened to vote to repeal it, it may be too little too late. His support was what made it possible for the woefully misnamed IRA to become law in the first place after he made a deal with Senate Majority Chuck Schumer (D-NY). After all that, he was still forced to ask Schumer to remove his request for permitting reforms in the continuing resolution since his fellow Democrats in strong opposition to the reforms pointed out that they had not made that deal with him.
It's no secret that Manchin has been burned by his fellow Democrats, including Biden and his administration, especially after he tanked Build Back Better in December 2021.
Does that mean that Manchin could serve as a spoiler for 2024? As Townhall and our sister sites have raised at length, Biden may not end up running after all, given his age, mental capabilities – or lack thereof – and voter sentiments on how they do not want him to run again. Even fellow Democrats feel this way, and even Democratic-friendly outlets, like The New York Times and the Washington Post, are pointing to such concerns, or at least raising the questions.
Not exactly.
New York Times Puts Out Damning Coverage Ahead of Joe Biden's Announcement https://t.co/2n3byhYfy6
— Townhall.com (@townhallcom) April 24, 2023
The points that Manchin raises, and has raised many times before, may seem like attractive ones to many Americans. Last July, USA Today's David Paleologos wrote, "Americans are practically screaming for a third-party presidential candidate - or at least anyone who isn't a Democrat or Republican."
Granted, this came out over two years before the 2024 presidential election, but here's what Paleologos had to offer at the time:
A viable third party candidate: Could we have one in the 2024 presidential election? Could they win? According to today’s Suffolk University/USA TODAY national poll of registered voters, Americans are practically screaming for a third-party presidential candidate - or at least anyone who isn’t a Democrat or Republican. We asked voters, “Do the two major parties – Democrat & Republican - do a good job of representing Americans’ political views?” A majority (60%) answered that either a third party or many parties are necessary, with only 1-in-4 registered voters (25%) answering that 2 parties are good enough and the remainder undecided.
Unlike many other issues in our nation, support for more parties isn’t one-sided. Voters on both sides of the aisle–especially those in the middle–are all screaming loudly. Sixty-nine percent of independents would like to see three or more parties in the United States. Among registered voters who said they would vote for former President Donald Trump in 2024, 49% would still like to see three or more parties. Among registered voters who said they would vote for President Joe Biden in 2024, 67% would like 3 or more parties.
That being said, we are still a two-party system. A Monmouth poll we covered last week showed that Americans don't have much appetite for a third-party candidate and that there's even less of an appetite for a named ticket of Manchin running with former Gov. Jon Huntsman (R-UT) as his running mate.
NATIONAL POLL: If Trump and Biden are the 2024 nominees, would voters consider a third-party bipartisan fusion ticket?
— MonmouthPoll (@MonmouthPoll) July 20, 2023
Generic D/R ticket:
5% definitely
25% probably
Named @Sen_JoeManchin/@JonHuntsman ticket:
2% definitely
14% probablyhttps://t.co/9It7kpajIF pic.twitter.com/ZneBXdrVV0
And, when it comes to the Democrats' narrative that Manchin running could help elect Trump again, the poll actually found that it would help Biden.
Manchin has been tight-lipped about his plans until now. When it comes to any answers he seems willing to give on his plans for 2024, it's that we'll know "at the end of this year." If he's not looking to run for higher office, it's truly curious what the purpose of his speaking engagements in the state to hold the first primary and op-eds like these serve.
NATIONAL POLL: Figuring in the potential vote for a third-party ticket affects support for both Joe Biden and Donald Trump about equally. They each lose 1-12 points with a generic alternative and 6-7 points with a named ticket in the mix.https://t.co/9It7kp9LT7 pic.twitter.com/tk1S5aeYQL
— MonmouthPoll (@MonmouthPoll) July 20, 2023
Manchin wears a confident face, as evidenced by the statement he released when popular sitting Gov. Jim Justice (R-WV) announced he was running for Manchin's Senate seat. A spokesperson of his also shot right back at David Axelrod, President Barack Obama's former advisor, when Axelrod offered early last month that Manchin is "kind of dead man walking in West Virginia" and "there's nowhere for him to go."
"This is a funny comment about polls since the same smart pollsters said Barack Obama's poll numbers proved he had no chance against Hilary Clinton, Donald Trump could never win the first election, and Republicans would win huge in 2022. Senator Manchin's focus is on doing the best job for West Virginia and the American people. The only poll that matters is the one on Election Day," the spokesperson said at the time to Fox News.
If Democrats want to hold onto that Senate seat in 2024, Manchin running again is likely the only pray that they have of that being the case. Even still, as Axelrod pointed out, Manchin only won reelection narrowly in 2018 by 3.3 points during a blue wave. The race ratings all differ at this time, which makes sense given that Manchin hasn't officially declared. But it's worth noting that even with him not ruling it out, Sabato's Crystal Ball still has the race as "Lean Republican."
