Days before President Joe Biden made his reelection campaign official, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. announced his campaign. Before him, Marianne Williamson had announced hers as well. From announcing his run to an overflow, standing-room crowd, to earning headlines over his stance on protecting sports for women and girls, and ABC News censoring his interview, RFK Jr. does not appear to be going away quietly or any time soon. This is not merely the case when it comes to how he been the subject of several Townhall columns, but elsewhere.
The full extent to the true nature of such a question may not be known, since the Democratic Party is treating the 2024 like a coronation for Biden. As Katie highlighted last Tuesday, it's rather noteworthy that Biden would highlight in his announcement video how it's supposedly "a moment where they have had to stand up for democracy," given that the DNC refuses to host any debates.
Stand up for Democracy*
— Katie Pavlich (@KatiePavlich) April 25, 2023
*But no primary debates, thank you https://t.co/oKC2vb9ugB
The People’s Republic of China has announced there will be No Presidential Debates in the Primaries.
— Rob Schneider (@RobSchneider) April 27, 2023
Sorry, I mean,
The Democratic National Committee has announced there will be No Presidential Debates in the Primaries.
That being said, RFK Jr. may be making at least a dent when it comes to the poll numbers.
It's worth reminding that significant numbers of Democrats, majorities even, don't think Biden should run. According to a recent NBC News poll released just before Biden made his announcement, 70 percent of all Americans, including 51 percent of Democrats, believe he shouldn't run.
RealClearPolitics (RCP) now also has a section on polls on the 2024 Democratic primary.
Last Thursday, Fox News released polling that showed Biden with 62 percent to Kennedy's 19 percent among Democratic Primary voters. Williamson had 9 percent support. Such a poll was conducted April 21-24, with a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points for that question. The poll also showed Biden with a 44 percent approval rating among all respondents, while 55 percent disapprove.
An Emerson poll showed Biden with 70 percent to Kennedy's 21 percent, while Williamson had 8 percent support when respondents were presented with declared candidates.
The poll's write-up does begin by mentioning a telling point though regarding a decrease in support from Democrats. "As the President announced his reelection bid Tuesday, a majority of Democratic voters (65%) think Biden should be the 2024 Democratic nominee, while 35% think it should be someone else. The share of Democratic voters who think Biden should be the nominee has decreased six points since February, from 71% to 65%," the first paragraph read.
That poll was conducted April 24-25 with 1,100 registered voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. It showed the president with a 41 percent approval rating, thanks in large part to low marks from Independent voters. "Driving Biden’s lower approval this month is independent voters, 37% of whom approved of the president in February, which has dropped to 30% this month," Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling is quoted as saying in the write-up.
Biden's approval ratings look particularly poor according to Gallup, as Spencer highlighted at the time, as he experienced a record low of 37 percent around the time he announced his reelection.
RCP also highlighted RFK Jr.'s chances on Tuesday by featuring Daniel McCarthy's column for the New York Post referring to the challenger as a "tough foe for a weakened Biden."
"The Kennedy name, Biden’s weakness and the profound distrust millions of Americans feel toward institutions such as the CIA, the media and the pharmaceutical companies will make RFK Jr. formidable," McCarthy wrote at one point.
So, while we may not fully know just how much of a threat RFK Jr. is, it's because the DNC won't let us. For all the talk of what CNN thinks is a "boring" primary season, as addressed in a previous VIP piece, it's worth reminding how a primary challenge could doom Biden's general election chances even if he ultimately is the nominee.
Ronald Reagan challenged Gerald Ford for the nomination in 1976, and Ford lost to Jimmy Carter in the general election. When Carter ran for reelection, he was challenged by Ted Kennedy, who was RFK Jr.'s uncle. Carter ultimately lost to Reagan in the 1980 election. Pat Buchanan challenged George H.W. Bush in 1992, who lost to Bill Clinton. RFK Jr.'s own father, RFK Sr., ran for president in 1968 but was assassinated.
