Last year's midterm elections, were, to say the least, quite disappointing for the Republican Party. While they still control the House, that majority is only by nine seats, a far cry from the potential 40 seat pickup Republican leadership had been hoping for leading up to the election. The Senate not only remains under Democratic control, but that majority grew since when retiring Sen. Pat Toomey, a Republican from Pennsylvania left office, he was replaced with Sen. John Fetterman, a Democrat. The Senate map for 2022 was always going to be a bit challenging, but that Democrats grew their numbers in the body still wasn't a good sign.
It wasn't just the Republican Party that was expecting far different numbers. Historical precedence with there being a Democratic president in charge meant that Republicans should have done much better. Instead, we got headlines touting Biden's success, including MSNBC's from last December about how "In historical terms, Biden’s first midterms were a clear success," with the subheadline explaining that "Joe Biden’s Democratic Party, in quantifiable terms, had the best midterm cycle of any Democratic president in generations." Other headlines were similar.
Despite such losses, Republican leadership largely remained the same. This includes Ronna McDaniel remaining in charge as RNC chairwoman. She made her case, though, including in columns for Townhall, and was handily reelected in late January with 111 votes.
At the start of her appearance on "Fox News Sunday," McDaniel was confronted by host Shannon Bream about last week's report from The Washington Post, "GOP study on poor 2022 election showing doesn’t mention Trump."
From the report's first paragraphs, it's not hard to see why it's worth taking this with a grain of salt, even if it does turn out to be true. Emphasis is added:
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So it's a draft report, which The Washington Post has not seen, but is relying on anonymous sources to find out what's in it. A short while later, it's acknowledged why that might be that Trump would be left out:
GOP leaders are avoiding Trump in part because RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel has vowed to be neutral in the 2024 Republican primary as the former president seeks a second term. Comments praising or criticizing Trump would break that vow, some of the people involved in the report said.
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In addition, GOP officials want a detente with Trump, who has turned on many advisers but has stayed close with McDaniel, who has regularly met with him since he left office. Trump recently threatened to skip the GOP debates, and his team is in negotiations with the party over those events.
McDaniel was forceful in her response that "The Washington Post does not have a final draft because there is not a final draft. Many of the committees have not completed that. So, that's inaccurate reporting."
While it's objective to say that candidates endorsed by former and potentially future President Donald Trump did not have the best cycle last year, it's worth giving McDaniel the benefit of the doubt that this is not the final draft. This is also The Washington Post we're looking at here, and it's within the realm of possibility that they would delight in having Republicans in disarray. Their reporting actually includes plenty of helpful information that's not about Trump. And, it's also very possible--likely even--that Trump will become the nominee, especially if current polling is any indication, and he and the RNC need to work together.
When it comes to the reasons why Republicans did not perform as well as hoped or expected, the reasons mentioned by McDaniel and the draft report are pretty similar. Independents did not break for the Republican Party last year, which is a major factor. "What I will say is, the biggest takeaway we are taking is independents did not break our way, which has to happen if we're going to win in 2024, which usually that's what causes that red wave," McDaniel pointed out to Bream.
While speaking with Townhall last November, National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) Chairman Steve Daines of Montana acknowledged that that was a pressing factor.
The leftist Vox was all too happy to gloat about how "How independent voters saved Democrats," with Independents breaking for the Democratic candidate with healthy margins in key battleground states. One reason why, as was also discussed between McDaniel and Bream, and as is mentioned in the The Washington Post, is abortion.
"And so, the guidance we're going to give to our candidates is you have to address this head-on," McDaniel told Bream. "The Democrats spent $360 million on this and many of our candidates across the board refused to talk about it, thinking, oh, we can just talk about the economy and ignore this big issue, and they can't."
"The draft report says abortion hurt the Republicans in the midterm elections, with candidates trying to avoid the issue and alienating some voters while Democrats saw their base’s energy grow, according to the people familiar with the document. It calls on Republicans to talk more about abortion than they did in the midterm elections," The Washington Post mentioned.
The conversation between McDaniel and Bream expressed key insight on the issue:
BREAM: Yeah. And there's still people, though, advising Republicans that way saying this issue is bad for you. It costs you. Don't do it.
But you have said you've got to take it head-on. You want people to articulate not only the Republican position but the Democrat position -- and yet so many of them when they are forced (ph) candidates or potential candidates to talk about this, they seem to still struggle with the answer.
MCDANIEL: Yeah, they're uncomfortable, but they can't be. And it's not just talking about it once. The Democrats are putting $360 million against you on TV, in lies. So, those lies become the truth if you don't fight back. So you need to say it loud.
Listen, I'm proud to be pro-life. The consensus -- we have to find consensus among Democrats and Republicans. Let's see where the Democrats are.
What abortion is a bad idea to Democrats? Ninth month, eighth month, seventh month? They can't even articulate an abortion that's a bad idea.
Gender selection, if it's a girl, you get to abort it. Tax-funded abortions for people where it's against their religious conscience. That's where Joe Biden was years ago.
So I think put them on the defensive and articulate where you stand and that's going to be that critical message that we have to get out before these -- before 2024.
When it comes to abortion being the losing issue that it was for the Republican Party, it's worth reminding that Americans are not in favor of abortion up until birth for any reason without legal limit, which the Democratic Party is. Regardless as to if they're honest about it, virtually all Democrats have supported the Women's Health Protection Act, which does just that. It's a messaging issue, as many bought the Democrats' fearmongering, especially in light of the U.S. Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade with the Dobbs v. Jackson decision.
The Washington Post also has helpful analysis on the abortion issue:
The RNC circulated memos before last year’s midterms warning candidates about the danger abortion posed for their elections. The memos recommended candidates go on offense about less popular positions held by some Democrats, including access to abortion in the third trimester. They urged Republicans to support exceptions to abortion bans for rape, incest and the life of the mother, a position held by the last four Republicans to win the presidency.
In a speech last week at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library, McDaniel was even more explicit, warning her party not to avoid the issue and to try to appeal broadly. She cited recent polling about a 15-week ban, a relatively moderate position in the party.
“Most Democrat leaders refuse to endorse even the most basic limits on abortion,” she said. “Polling shows that when the choice is between a Democrat who wants zero abortion restrictions and a Republican who supports protecting life at 15 weeks, we win by 22 points.”
Republicans have got to answer for these lies, especially when McDaniel recognizes that they are, in fact, lies.
The Washington Post also mentioned fundraising and encouraging Republican voters to get involved with early voting and mail-in voting. It's worth noting that where Republicans won big was in Florida, where Republicans were even doing well in those voting methods.
The draft report, if it is indeed accurate, and it seems like it could be, has some good point. Here's hoping Republicans actually put these lessons to good use, if they ever want to win again.
