President Joe Biden has long maintained that he's looking forward to facing former and potentially future President Donald Trump next year in a rematch from 2020. He sees it as his own path to reelection, though he has yet to formally announce his campaign. While he was supposed to announce sometime after his State of the Union address, that took place over two months ago now, on February 7, and the president has since given a sort of non-answer. That announcement is now expected to come sometime after the summer. And there are more signs that Trump, who has now been formally indicted, may be harder to beat than Biden thought.
It's worth reminding that Biden even admitted last month in Philadelphia that Trump is "the former president and maybe the future president."
Biden describes Trump as "the former president and maybe the future president." pic.twitter.com/FDnMLSPKpg
— Greg Price (@greg_price11) March 9, 2023
As it turns out, and as Biden himself has already seemed to acknowledge, Trump looks to have a chance. He's already way ahead of the rest of the declared or potential candidates in the Republican primary polls, though it also appeared that Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), who is expected to declare sometime after the Florida state legislature session comes to an end next month, came the closest to beating Biden.
Just a few weeks ago, an analysis of polls from RealClearPolitics (RCP) showed that Biden had just a 0.3 percent lead over DeSantis, while he had a 1.3 percent lead over Trump. On Thursday afternoon, though, the numbers from RCP tell a different story. Trump leads Biden by 1.7 percent, while DeSantis similarly leads by Biden by 1.6 percent.
The change in Trump's chances against Biden are due to a Rasmussen poll which showed Trump with 47 percent support among likely voters over Biden's 40 percent. A significant 11 percent would vote for another candidate. Trump's lead is within the margin of error, which is at plus or minus 3.0 percent. That poll was conducted March 30-April 3, right as the indictment being pursued Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg was announced.
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Another poll, from The Economist/YouGov, shows Trump with a more narrow lead of 44 percent to Biden's 43 percent among registered voters.
Also in Trump's favor is that the poll shows him leading among Independents, with 34 percent to Biden's 27 percent. Independents proved crucial to handing Trump his win in 2016 and Biden his win in 2020. Trump has more support among Republicans, at 80 percent, than Biden has among Democrats, at 77 percent.
When it comes to the poll's weight, there was an estimated distribution of 34 percent Democrat and 31 percent Republican.
The poll was conducted April 8-11, after the announcement of the indictment and after the 34 felony charges were announced against Trump.
While that lead is more of a statistical tie and falls within the margin of error of 2.9 percent, InteractivePolls made a telling point when highlighting the poll over Twitter on Wednesday.
🇺🇲 2024 Presidential Election Poll
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) April 12, 2023
(R) Trump: 44%
(D) Biden: 43%
• This is the second YouGov/Economist survey since the indictment that shows Trump ahead of Biden.
• In January, the same survey had Biden leading Trump by 4 points (42/46)
YouGov | Apr 8-11 | 1,032 RV | D+3 pic.twitter.com/TT0F5h7P81
Since being indicted, the YouGov/Economist polls have shown a visible improvement for a Trump-Biden rematch, looking to polls from January and then again in April.
The other poll from The Economist/YouGov mentioned with Trump having a lead over Biden, was conducted April 1-4 and a margin of error of plus or minus 3.0 percent right after the indictment was announced. Trump still enjoyed 44 percent support, while Biden had 42 percent support. Biden had 82 percent support among Democrats at the time, showing a decrease in support from this poll compared to the one conducted a few days later.
The estimated distribution was again 34 percent Democrat and 31 percent Republican.
When it comes to the poll conducted by The Economist/YouGov from January 14-17, Biden led Trump 46 percent to 42 percent among registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent. While Biden's overall numbers of 83 percent support among Democrats and 32 percent support among Independents went down since, Trump's numbers among Republicans and Independents have gone up.
What's changed since then? Well, indicting a former president is unprecedented. It's also largely regarded as a political move to go after a presidential candidate and interfere with an election. It's not merely Republican leadership that has such sentiment. Polling shows that a majority of the American people believe such charges are political. An analysis from FiveThirtyEight has noted that the rally around the flag theory could help Trump, especially in the primary, if Republicans are united.
With his ruthless vendetta against Trump, George Soros-backed DA Bragg brought forth 34 felony charges, despite how he could have brought forth misdemeanors, and did so despite an expired statute of limitations and using an untested legal theory.
Rather than treading lightly though, lest he wants to help elect Trump once more, Bragg has ramped up the gaslighting, as well as made a show of suing Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH), though such a suit has already hit some snags.
