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Tipsheet

Trump May Have Just Given His Clearest Indication Yet He's Running in 2024

AP Photo/Mary Altaffer

Former President Donald Trump has been teasing another presidential run in 2024 for some time now, setting up a potential rematch of the 2020 presidential election, should President Joe Biden also run again. Trump's teasing got more pronounced over the summer, even before the FBI raided Mar-a-Lago in August, and the speculation certainly picked up from then on, based on the likelihood that being targeted in such a way would motivate Trump even further. 

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There was some chatter as to if Trump would announce before the midterm elections, now just 5 days away, and mixed feelings as to whether it would be a good idea or not. Although he has not yet formally declared, Trump may have given the clearest indication yet, as his Save America PAC released multiple emails on Thursday highlighting polls where he is up in 2024. 

A Nevada poll last month conducted by Rasmussen Reports and the Capitol Resource Institute shows Trump leading by double digits, 49 percent to Biden's 37 percent. The poll was conducted October 13-17 with 707 Nevada likely voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Trump's lead in Nevada is especially telling, given that he lost the state in both 2016 and 2020. Nevada hasn't voted for a Republican president since 2004, when then President George W. Bush won reelection. 

Then there's an Ohio poll, also from last month, by the Institute for Civics and Public Policy (ICAPP) at Ohio Northern University. A majority, at 53.64 percent said they believe Trump would win in such a rematch between him and Biden in 2024, and an even higher majority, at 55.40 percent said they want Trump to win. 

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Additionally, a plurality, at 46.49 percent said they'd like to see Trump run again in 2024, with another plurality, at 35.60 saying they'd "strongly approve" of a rematch in 2024 between Trump and Biden. 

"Many would love to see a Biden-Trump rematch as they think Trump would win if it is to occur.” Robert Alexander of Ohio Northern University is quoted in part as saying in the poll's release.

The poll was conducted October 11-15 with 668 likely Ohio voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points. 

Trump won Ohio in both 2016 and 2020, with 51.7 percent of the vote and 53.3 percent of the vote, respectively. 

Trump still has to win the Republican primary, though, which is expected to also include Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL). The SAVE America PAC thus also highlighted a September poll from Premise Data, which showed Trump way ahead of the pack. When it comes to the 2024 election, Trump is ahead of Biden, 51 percent to 49 percent. That poll was conducted September 2-5 with 1,572. 

As a write-up from Premise highlighted:

  • There is little change among Premise Poll respondents when it comes to candidate preferences in a potential 2024 Republican presidential primary. 64% favor Trump’s renomination, which is more than four times higher than Florida Governor Ron DeSantis’ support (15%).
    • Former Vice President Mike Pence is lagging further behind in the Premise Poll, coming in at 7%.
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Trump is not the only likely candidate being watched to see if he'll run. There has been chatter and doubts for some time as to if Biden will even run for reelection, with the president himself suggesting during a "60 Minutes" interview from September that it was possible he would not. "Will he or won’t he? Pressure mounts on Biden for post-midterm decision," read Amie Parnes headline for The Hill on Sunday. 

Should Trump run against Biden again in 2024 and win, he will not be the only president to serve two nonconsecutive terms. Grover Cleveland won in 1884, but lost to Benjamin Harrison in 1888. He promised he’d be back in four years, and he was, winning even more electoral votes in 1892 than he did in 1884 in the rematch against Harrison. 

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