We are now five weeks away from the fast-approaching midterms. Republicans continue to have the edge. This includes as a matter of historical precedence, as the president's party in power almost always loses seats in his first midterm election, and Democrats have such a narrow majority as it is in both the House and the Senate. For Democrats to win would defy historical precedence, and the momentum just isn't enough on their side. We could very well be looking at a red wave.
On Monday, Monmouth University released polling telling us what we've been saying for months, that is that Republicans still have an edge. This is in part because of the issues voters care about, which is acknowledged in the poll's own headline.
"Economic Issues Outweigh Concerns About Rights in Midterm Vote," declared the polling institute. "Further dampening Democrats’ prospects are the poor numbers President Joe Biden gets for his performance on the issues most important to independents," the poll's write-up indicated.
It's not just looking good for Republicans, it's looking better than it was before, back when Democrats and pundits raced to declare that perhaps a red wave wasn't coming after all:
Republicans have made slight gains in the public’s preference for party control of Congress since the summer. Currently, 36% of Americans say they want the GOP in charge and another 11% have no initial preference but lean toward Republican control. Democratic control is preferred by 34% with another 10% leaning toward the Democrats. The combined 47% who choose Republican control is up from 43% in August, while the 44% support level for Democratic control is down from 50%.
Patrick Murray, the director of Monmouth University Polling Institute, is quoted as making a telling point about close races. "Because the congressional map favors the GOP, Democrats need to do more than 'keep it close' in order to hold onto their House majority. One roadblock for them is that the issue picture favors Republicans," he said.
Here's how those issues break down. Like just about every poll, economic issues top the list. Inflation is the top issue, with 82 percent of respondents saying it's "extremely" or "very important." Similarly, "jobs, unemployment" comes in fourth, with 68 percent indicating it's "extremely" or "very important." That's not too great for Biden, given that just 30 percent and 43 percent of respondents approve of his handling of those issues, respectively.
Abortion, which has been the pet issue of Democrats and their allies in the mainstream media, comes in as the seventh most important, out of 12 issues. Fifty-six percent say it's "extremely" or "very important." Biden isn't even regarded well on that issue, despite harping so much on it, as just 31 percent approve of how he's handling it.
Of the 12 issues, the only one where Biden's approval rating is above water is on the "Covid pandemic," where he enjoys 50 percent support compared to the 47 percent who disapprove. That being said, it still ranks as the 11th most important, with 32 percent saying it's "extremely" or "very important." It's only slightly better than the 31 percent who say "student loan debt" is, which Biden has a 41 percent approval rating on.
The order of issues based on importance when it comes to how many say it's "extremely" or "very important," as well as Biden's approval ratings on those issues, if they haven't been indicated already, are as follows:
- Inflation
- Crime at 72 percent, with a 32 percent approval rating
- Elections & voting at 70 percent, with a 43 percent approval rating
- Jobs, unemployment
- Immigration at 67 percent, with a 31 percent approval rating
- Infrastructure at 57 percent, with a 43 percent approval rating
- Abortion
- Racial inequality at 53 percent, with a 41 percent approval rating
- Gun control at 51 percent, with a 30 percent approval rating
- Climate change at 49 percent, with a 42 percent approval rating
- Covid pandemic
- Student loan debt
The poll asked respondents if they cared more about "the economy and the cost of living" versus "fundamental rights and democratic processes." By double digits, the former outpaced the latter, at 54 percent to 38 percent. Democrats were the only party affiliation to say the latter, and Independents side with Republicans, in that 61 percent of them prefer economic issues to the 29 percent who say rights and democracy.
While Democrats pay place more importance on rights and democracy, the poll's write-up also quotes Murray as sayingthat it's "worth noting that Biden does not provide a rallying point for Democratic voters on some of the issues, such as abortion, that his party is leaning on to motivate its own base."
"Democrats are all over the place when it comes to their key issues. This makes it difficult for the party to create a cohesive messaging strategy to motivate its base. Republicans, on the other hand, just have to hammer away at rising prices and 'the wolf is at the door' to get their voters riled up," Murray also said.
As the poll makes a key point to highlight, the results overall look bad for Democrats when it comes to winning over Independents. On the problem that Democrats have with Independents, Murray also said it's a "major problem for Democrats is their base messaging doesn’t hold as much appeal for independents as the GOP issue agenda does. Even though truly persuadable independents are a rather small group these days, this small difference can have a major impact given the expectation that congressional control will hinge on a handful of very close contests."
Another point that's been said often, and which is reflected here, is that Republicans have gained back their advantage when it comes to generic ballot.
When asked if they'd "rather see the Republicans or the Democrats in control of Congress," 36 percent said Republicans, while 34 percent said Democrats. Eleven percent who said it didn't matter said they were leaning towards the Republicans, while 10 percent said as much about Democrats. This is even more telling given that it's a flip from August's poll, when 34 percent preferred Republicans and 38 preferred Democrats. There's also been a flip for the leaners since then, in that 9 percent said they were leaning towards Republicans, while 12 percent were leaning towards Democrats.
NEW: Monmouth University
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 3, 2022
Biden Job Approval (RV)
Approve 38%
Disapprove 55%
2022 Generic Congressional Ballot
Republicans 47% (+2)
Democrats 45%
750 RV | 09/21-25 | D29/R28/I43https://t.co/Q1P0XzAg9E
Republicans are back to a lead on the generic ballot, according to RealClearPolitics, which gives them an edge of +1.0 in the polls.
Even more helpful is how Republicans have an edge with extremely motivated voters. Overall, 59 percent of respondents say they're "extremely motivated." Republicans have a 10 point edge, though, in that 72 percent of them are "extremely motivated," compared to 62 percent of Democrats.
The poll also looks to Biden's approval rating, which is at 38 percent, the same as it was in August. This is not too far off from the record low of 36 percent it was at just a few months ago, in June.
The poll was conducted September 21-25, with 806 adults and a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. The poll also included 750 registered voters, for which there was a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.
Going off of how key Independents are, the poll included 43 percent of self-identifying Independents, compared to 28 percent of self-identifying Republicans and 29 percent of self-identifying Democrats.
