Democrats and their allies in the mainstream media have really taken to claiming that Democrats are now favored to win this midterm cycle, which would certainly be a break from how midterm races have historically gone before. For all their excitement, though, it's worth looking to certain factors, including and especially the enthusiasm factor. Democrats can rant and rave about abortion and the Supreme Court all they want, but if it doesn't translate to votes and voter enthusiasm, it won't matter.
Philip Bump, in an analysis he provided for the Washington Post on Wednesday, highlighted how Republican men are the voters most enthusiastic about voting in the November midterm elections, now less than two months away.
Throwing even more cold water on the narrative about pro-abortion Democratic women being fired up to vote, Bump states:
On Tuesday, I looked at the growing murmurs that American women in particular are going to flood the polls in the wake of the Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization. Protecting access to abortion in the wake of the dismantling of Roe v. Wade quickly became a rallying cry aimed at November — but polling doesn’t indicate that Democrats have seen a big surge in support from female voters.
In fact, data provided to The Washington Post by the polling firm YouGov indicate that the group that reports the most enthusiasm about voting is the polar opposite of what many expect: Republican men. And that this enthusiasm has grown.
Pointing to charts based on weekly polling from YouGov, Bump concludes that it is most accurate to say "Democrats did see an increase in reported enthusiasm after Dobbs, but Republicans remain more enthusiastic overall." In conclusion, he writes that while there are some caveats, such as how it doesn't mean Republican men will overperform expected turnout, "the idea that Democratic women in particular are newly and exceptionally energized doesn't get much support."
Those same charts paint a picture of Democratic enthusiasm surges, with Democratic men actually having a bigger surge, though it's described by Bump as "one that was fairly short-lived." He later emphasizes how "enthusiasm increased quite a bit post-Dobbs and then waned."
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Republican women didn't seem to change their reported enthusiasm, but Republican men did. As Bump explained, "More than half of Republican men now consistently report being more enthusiastic than in other years to vote in November. They’re the only group above that mark. Their reported enthusiasm has also been trending upward."
Bump's analysis focuses primarily on voter enthusiasm rather than what issues would be motivating voters, if not abortion. The mainstream media has certainly been highlighting how abortion matters to voters this election cycle. Even when it does matter more than in the past, it's still not a top issue according to many polls, and certainly not the top issue. Polls, with some outliers which have been easily explained and debunked, tend to show economic issues, such as inflation, being the top motivating factor.
Where the abortion issue does matter appears to be in specific states and/or in specific races.
A particularly obvious example includes FiveThirtyEight trying to amplify the importance of the abortion issue in its July edition of highlighting surveys showing what issues matter to voters, the first since the Dobbs v. Jackson decision was officially handed down in late June. Abortion came in as the fourth-highest issue, with inflation still coming in as the most important.
Speaking of inflation, Sarah reported earlier this week on a Gallup poll showing that inflation is causing hardship for a majority of Americans, at 56 percent.
Another egregious example of polling comes from last month's CBS News Battleground Tracker poll, also done with YouGov. In tweeting about the poll, CBS News' Kabir Khanna highlighted the major issue that abortion supposedly is for Democrats, which led them to temper their expectations for how many seats Republicans are expected to pick up in the House.
GOP winning voters who prioritize economy/inflation, so what's tempering overall advantage?
— Kabir Khanna (@kabir_here) August 28, 2022
Abortion is big part of story: still on voters' minds, shoring up Dem support, especially with women
More say midterm vote will be to support abortion rights rather than oppose them
2/5 pic.twitter.com/wTkDHzQ1Zq
In reality, the poll showed that the economy is overwhelmingly a top issue for voters, in that 81 percent consider it "very important." A much smaller majority, at 59 percent, said the same about abortion. Of 12 issues, abortion came in as the sixth-highest when it comes to what voters ranked as "very important."
Further, a slight plurality, at 43 percent, said their vote would not be about abortion, compared to the 41 percent who said it would be in favor of abortion.
Speaking of voter enthusiasm, that poll found that men are more enthusiastic than women when it comes to voting, 57 percent to 42 percent. Conservatives are also more enthusiastic than liberals, by 62 percent to 50 percent, and Republicans were more enthusiastic than Democrats, by 58 percent to 51 percent.
Yesterday's VIP piece covered polling showing independents aren't too keen on Biden and look to be favoring Republicans on the generic ballot. Polling mentioned in that piece also came from YouGov, done with Yahoo.
