Democrats and their allies in the mainstream media would have you believe that the midterms are so close, that not only will Democrats hold onto control of the Senate, but potentially the House as well. There's also been talk as to how the "red wave" will really be a "red ripple." The Senate is a toss-up, and this year is no different like years past. The House is more likely to be controlled by the Republicans when a new Congress is sworn in next January. The current Democratic majority is narrow, in both chambers, and a win is a win no matter how many seats Republicans control one or both chambers by.
On Sunday, CBS News released its latest battleground tracker poll done with YouGov. The latest model predicts 226 seats for the Republican Party, with 218 needed for the majority. Democrats currently hold 220 seats.
Despite Republicans still being forecast to take control of at least the House, in tweeting out the poll, CBS News' Kabir Khanna chose to highlight the "GOP heads into fall still in position to win back House, but advantage a bit smaller after tumultuous summer — trend points toward narrow gains instead of wave."
GOP winning voters who prioritize economy/inflation, so what's tempering overall advantage?
— Kabir Khanna (@kabir_here) August 28, 2022
Abortion is big part of story: still on voters' minds, shoring up Dem support, especially with women
More say midterm vote will be to support abortion rights rather than oppose them
2/5 pic.twitter.com/wTkDHzQ1Zq
The reason for the decrease in seat gain is because of abortion, which is important to Democrats and women especially, according to the poll.
When it comes to the issues, Khanna's tweet acknowledges that the Republicans are winning with voters who prioritize the economy and inflation, which is a lot of voters. Polling has also consistently shown that economic are top issues for voters. This is despite how the mainstream media and abortion activists seek to emphasize that issue in the weeks following the U.S. Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade with its Dobbs v. Jackson decision in June.
This CBS News/YouGov poll in question has the economy overwhelmingly as the top issue for voters, in that 81 percent of voters consider it "very important." A much smaller majority, at 59 percent, say the same about abortion. Of the 12 issues which voters are asked to rank as "very important," "somewhat important" or "not too/not important," abortion is the sixth highest issue where voters rank it as "very important."
When it comes to that top issue of the economy, a plurality, at 37 percent, say it's "very bad," and 60 percent disapprove of how President Joe Biden is handling the issue, with voters giving him that exact disapproval rating on gun policy and gas prices. The only issue where Biden has a higher disapproval rating is on inflation, as 65 percent disapprove.
A plurality, at 43 percent, also believe the economy next year will be in a recession. Just 2 percent believe it will be booming.
Going back to abortion, a slight plurality of voters, at 43 percent, say their vote will not be about abortion, yet Khanna chose to highlight that particular issue. Forty-one percent say their vote will be in support of abortion, while 16 percent say it will be in opposition to.
Further, it's worth asking as to if voters favor Democrats more so on the abortion issue because the extremist position of the Democratic Party isn't highlighted enough, in that Biden and so many Democratic candidates don't support any legal limits for abortion, which is unpopular with Americans. Along with help from the mainstream media, though, they paint their Republican opponents as extreme for wanting to protect as many unborn lives as at early a stage as possible.
It's not until Khanna's last tweet in the thread that he reaffirms Republicans are still forecast to win in November.
That said, GOP still well positioned to take House — months-long voter frustration hasn't disappeared, despite improvement in sentiment since July
— Kabir Khanna (@kabir_here) August 28, 2022
Plus, Republicans just have more safe seats and only need to flip four to win control
Plenty more here https://t.co/B964woA25S
5/5
Khanna is also among those who have touted a rise in approval ratings for Biden, who has seen an increase, though it's still nothing too impressive.
Another part of story is dropping gas prices and uptick in Biden approval — 45% with RVs, highest since Feb
— Kabir Khanna (@kabir_here) August 28, 2022
Ratings also up on handling bread-and-butter issues like economy and inflation
Democrats driving gains: +8 on approval from July and +13 on things going well in U.S.
3/5 pic.twitter.com/kJLw6Skt3P
President Joe Biden’s job approval, and specifically his job ratings on the economy, inflation, and gas prices, have all risen slightly. Most say gas prices have dropped in their area.https://t.co/HhfivAsV1w pic.twitter.com/Ikmugg8zxv
— CBS News Poll (@CBSNewsPoll) August 28, 2022
While the tweet from CBS News highlights how Biden's approval on those key issue have "all risen slightly," they're still abysmal for the party in power heading into November.
Another tweet from Khanna's thread mentions former President Donald Trump, though the overall poll results damper his emphasis somewhat.
While midterms often referenda on sitting president, this one's about former president too...
— Kabir Khanna (@kabir_here) August 28, 2022
Most voters say Trump a factor, either to support or oppose — he's net negative with independents
Also, independents and women likelier to call GOP's candidates extreme than Dems'
4/5 pic.twitter.com/yJbBEd3ank
This comes into play in what respondents' vote for Congress will be based on, with 75 percent saying it's based "a lot" on "the way things are in the country, generally." A slight majority, at 51 percent, say it's based "a lot" on how they feel about Joe Biden, while a plurality, at 47 percent, say it's based "a lot" on how they feel about Trump. That said, 30 percent say their voted is based "not much/none" on how they feel about Trump.
While a plurality of 38 percent are voting "to oppose Joe Biden," a stronger plurality, at 46 percent, say their vote is "not about Donald Trump."
What neither Khanna nor CBS News Poll highlighted with their tweets, but which was tweeted out by Interactive Polls, is that the poll has Republicans up by 2 percentage points on the congressional ballot, 47 percent to 45 percent. Further, Republicans have a lead of 7 percentage points when it comes to who is very enthusiastic about voting in the midterms, by 58 percent to 51 percent.
NEW: @CBSNewsPoll / @YouGov
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 28, 2022
2022 Generic Congressional Ballot
Republicans 47% (+2)
Democrats 45%
2022 Midterms - Very Enthusiastic
Republicans 58% (+7)
Democrats 51%
1,854 LV / 08/24-26 / MoE 2.4%https://t.co/9i9aM51lZv pic.twitter.com/SScGl16uD4
This poll was conducted August 24-26, with 2,126 registered voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 2.4 percentage points.
The RealClearPolitics Generic Congressional Ballot currently has Republicans up by 0.8 percent, while FiveThirtyEight has Democrats with a 0.5 percent lead for their generic ballot.
Of course, it's always worth reminding that pollster underestimated Republican congressional wins in 2010 and 2014. Republicans won 63 seats in the House in 2010, giving them control of that chamber. They also won six Senate seats. In 2014, Republicans won 13 seats in the House and 9 in the Senate, giving them control of that body that year as well.
Pollsters Underestimated Republicans in early polling in 2010 and 2014
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 5, 2022
At this time in:
July 2010: Dems led by 0.3%
Nov 2010: GOP won by +6.8%
July 2014: Dems led by 1.2%
Nov 2014: GOP won by 5.7%
? Average early polling Error: D+7
GOP leads by 2 points now... pic.twitter.com/v8HyPlAVoZ
