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What Do We Make of This Poll Showing Decreasing Support for Biden From Arab-Americans?

Rebecca Downs
Rebecca Downs  |  November 03, 2023 4:00 PM

Following the October 7 Hamas terrorist attack against Israel, the Biden administration – including President Joe Biden himself – has made sure to simultaneously address concerns of Islamophobia and anti-Semitism. The administration's priority to tie the two together has certainly caused chatter and thrust it into the news cycle, especially when it comes to vulnerabilities Biden might have with Muslim Americans and the Arab-American community.

On Wednesday night, the Biden administration announced the "First-Ever National Strategy to Counter Islamophobia," with a statement on the White House website and a post from White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre. Vice President Kamala Harris, who has been tasked with a hodgepodge of priorities during the administration's nearly three years in office, also released a video message.

People definitely had strong thoughts, as our friends at Twitchy highlighted. Harris's post has 29,000 replies, with many users taking issue with the administration's curious sense of priorities given the rise of anti-Semitism and attacks against Jews. Earlier this week, during a hearing for the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs, FBI Director Christopher Wray warned about "historic levels" of anti-Semitism in the country.

The announcement came after a flurry of negative coverage about how Muslim Americans, including White House staffers and voters, weren't happy with the administration not making the war in the Middle East a "both sides" issue. Questions also came as to what the Biden administration was doing for those concerned. 

During Tuesday's press briefing, Jean-Pierre took a question about how "there are very many angry Muslim Americans right now who, who feel like the president isn't listening to them in their appeals for a ceasefire," with the reporter asking, "What is your message to this group of Americans? And what efforts have you made at outreach to this group specifically?" 

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Jean-Pierre didn't have much to offer, though, and spent a lot of time saying very little. 

"The president knows that Muslims and those perceived to be Muslim have endured a disproportionate number of – certainly, of hate-fueled attacks, right? As we talk about what we're seeing here," she offered. Explaining that the president "also understands" about a worry of "hate being directed at their communities."

The press secretary spoke in vague terms about how the administration's plan would "continue to engage" and "hear their feedback," emphasizing they would be listening to "perspective" as they "continue to hear from the community."

Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI), a member of the Squad who has a history of anti-Israeli sentiments, especially recently when it comes to doubling down on spreading false narratives, appeared in a pro-Hamas ad over the weekend with a message that Americans don't support Biden on the issue of supporting Israel, while the ad also warned of a drop in support for the president. 

On Friday afternoon, she herself also posted the ad, at this point posted almost a week beforehand to the MEANS TV account.

That question above may have been the one Jean-Pierre was most willing to speak to on the matter, but it wasn't the only one. Many reporters mentioned insight from Muslim Americans that they were going to withhold funding and support. When asked about how "polls are showing today that it's dropping significantly for the president" and specifically "is that a concern, and how will you address that," Jean-Pierre, as part of her response, stressed, "I'm just not going to go into every poll from here."

Also on Tuesday, the Arab American Institute released a poll on "Domestic Implications of the Most Recent Outbreak of Violence in Palestine/Israel." The poll's release makes no mention of the cause of that violence, and Hamas is not mentioned once.

Among the key takeaways is indeed the drop in support for Biden. "Support for President Biden in the upcoming election has plummeted among Arab American voters, dropping from 59% to 17%, a 42% decrease from 2020. Biden's approval rating has also dropped precipitously from 74% in 2020 to 29% in 2023, reflecting trends across the American public as a whole," the write-up noted, with original emphasis, also citing a Gallup poll released last week.

As that Gallup poll noted:

Early this year, Gallup found that for the first time in the U.S., Democrats’ sympathies for the Palestinians outpaced those for the Israelis. Although the survey is not designed to allow for statistically reliable estimates for any subset of the three-week polling period, the daily results strongly suggest that Democrats’ approval of Biden fell sharply in the aftermath of the Oct. 7 attacks by Hamas and Biden’s promise of full support for Israel on the same day. Biden’s current 75% approval rating among Democrats is well below the 86% average from his own party throughout his presidency.

There were more problematic findings, at historic levels, mentioned for this president in the write-up. "This poll marks the first time in our 26 years of polling Arab American voters in which a majority did not claim to prefer the Democratic Party," the write-up noted, with original emphasis. 

"Two-thirds of Arab Americans have a negative view of President Biden's response to the current violence in Palestine and Israel. Since April 2023, before the outbreak of violence in the region, his approval rating has dropped 18% among Arab Americans. A strong majority of Arab Americans believe the U.S. should call for a ceasefire on the current violence, mirroring recent polls of the American public overall," the write-up mentions, citing a Reuters/Ipsos poll. The poll later went on to state how a majority of respondents, 54 percent, have a "poor" view of Biden's job performance.

Although the poll claims support for a ceasefire when discussing generic "recent polls," there have been serious problems with such polls, as Matt has highlighted.

Further, even if Americans were to truly support a ceasefire, it would show a fundamental lack of understanding of the nature of the conflict between Israel and Hamas. The attack against Israel was unprovoked, and Israel is responding as it has the right to defend itself. More troubling, Hamas leaders have made clear that their objective is to destroy Israel and stated that they will continue to unleash attacks like the one on October 7. There also had been a ceasefire on October 6. 

While the poll's write-up noted that it was the first time in its 26 years of polling that Arab American voters claimed to prefer the Democratic Party, the poll shows former and potentially future President Donald Trump leading with 40 percent to Biden's 17.4 percent for the 2024 presidential race. This is a 5 percent increase from 2020, the poll notes.

Just 23 percent of respondents now identify as Democrats, a drop from 17 percent since April and an all-time low. A virtually even number say they're Republicans or independents, at 32 and 31 percent, respectively. That 31 percent is the highest since 1996. It's the first time Republicans have been the largest group. 

The poll also looked at more specific issues pertaining to the Israel-Hamas war. When asked, "How would you rate your attitude toward President Biden's response to the current violence in Palestine and Israel?" 67 percent said they hold a negative view, including 47 percent who hold a "very negative" view.

Such respondents – 68 percent – also oppose sending weapons and aid to Israel. 

When it comes to the findings on a ceasefire, the poll phrased it as a matter of influence. When asked, "Should the United States use its influence to call for a ceasefire in Gaza?" 68 percent agreed as much. The question, again, was framed in the context of "the current violence in Palestine and Israel," with no mention of Hamas.

For better or worse, these poll findings and other kinds of calls may have had an influence. Not only has the Biden administration announced aid to Gaza – as it did last month, despite the likelihood of interception from Hamas – the president is now saying he supports a ceasefire. Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL) called for one on Thursday as well. 

The poll was conducted October 23-27 with 500 Arab Americans and a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.