If Joe Biden is up seven-to-ten points over Donald Trump, then, why are a slew of battleground states a dead heat? And that’s not coming from conservative sources, folks. That’s from good ole’ MSNBC, who noted how things are tightening up in Iowa and Georgia. I don’t think either state is truly a battleground, but Michigan is—and it’s a dead heat. When that’s the scenario, it’ll come down to turnout and Trump had the edge by far over Biden, who has run an invisible campaign in the state.
President Trump's job approval has ticked up to 48 percent in a new Hill-HarrisX poll, a 1 percentage point increase from the same survey conducted earlier this month.
[…]
Trump was approved by 19 percent of Black voters in a study conducted Sept. 5-8. That number increased 6 points to 25 percent in the most recent survey.
Support among White and Hispanic voters held steady, at 55 and 37 percent, respectively.
The Hill-HarrisX poll was conducted online among 2,804 registered voters between Sept. 18-21. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.9 percentage points.
The number regarding black voter support is pretty good for a Republican, as is the Hispanic voter support. Yet, why are we still using registered voters in these polls? If we’re going by history here, there was another president who had a 48 percent approval rating in September before a key election in 2012. That was Barack Obama—and he isn’t going to have the tremendous economic growth numbers at his back the way Trump will. In four months, over 10 million jobs have been created under this administration. We’ve halved the job losses caused by the COVID outbreak. It’s a V-shaped recovery—and if you want to get the job done, re-elect Donald Trump. The ad writes itself. Rasmussen has had Trump’s approval over 50 percent for the past week or so.
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Of the Big 4 of the Rust Belt--MN, WI, MI, PA--Michigan is the most difficult for Trump to win.
— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) September 24, 2020
That he is in a dead heat in Michigan now is a good sign for him.
In 2012, Obama's election day approval in Rasmussen Reports matched his national vote percentage: 51%.
— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) September 24, 2020
The last 9 days Trump has been in the 50s in Rasmussen Reports.
If this keeps up or dips slightly, it is likely Trump will overperform his 46.1% national vote total from 2016.
TRUMP APPROVAL: 52%
— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) September 24, 2020
(per Rasmussen Reports)
9th straight day in 50s@realDonaldTrump approval % is 4 pts better than Obama on this day Sept 24, 2012:
Trump (2020): 52%
Obama (2012): 48%
(likely voters)https://t.co/DW2TZKhHnt
Of the Big 4 of the Rust Belt--MN, WI, MI, PA--Michigan is the most difficult for Trump to win.
— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) September 24, 2020
That he is in a dead heat in Michigan now is a good sign for him.
The national polling is once again oversampling Democrats, the college-educated, and still using registered voter polls. It’s not just presidential polls either. Sara Gideon, the Democratic candidate for Senate in Maine, is up 12 points over incumbent Republican Susan Collins. That’s a science fiction novel.
Biden cannot be up 10 and be tied in Michigan, and not doing not as well in key counties like Miami-Dade in Florida or Lackawanna in Pennsylvania. If he was truly up 10 points, Pennsylvania would be a sure thing. It’s not. In fact, it’s going to be hard for Democrats to flip this state if the GOP voter registration surges in the key counties remain, coupled with the return of the soft Trump voters flocking back into the fold come Election Day. Like Obama, you can count on the Trump coalition to turn out hardcore come Election Day, so those voter registration numbers weigh a bit more heavily. No one is excited about Joe Biden.
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