My family used to live in Pennsylvania. Bucks County, one of the key counties to winning the state. Just look to any Republican who won statewide, Donald Trump, Tom Corbett, Pat Toomey—they all either won or did well enough in Bucks County. This year, it could be different. For starters, the rural counties in the “T” region of the state should be sky-high again for Trump. You all know how Pennsylvania is described for national elections; Philly, Pittsburgh, and Alabama in between. The old way for the GOP to win the state might not be the game plan this cycle.
The numbers on new voter registrations could partially be why Biden had to come out of the basement and make a pit stop there. Katie already previewed this trend back in August—and in Bucks County, there’s been a big shift towards the GOP. That’s doesn’t bode well, as Biden must have solid numbers in the country to offset the rural wave that is expected on November 3.
The Pennsylvania Capital-Star had a fair analysis of the fall GOP voter registration surge, though they noted some red flags for the Biden camp. First, the college voter windfall expected in some counties cannot be guaranteed with COVID. Second, it looks like Biden won’t be able to flip Luzerne County, yet the publication zeroed-in on Lackawanna County.
“If the Democratic nominee can’t bounce back in a big way in this region, victory will be exceedingly difficult.”
The counties they cited as one where Biden must perform like a rockstar are Bucks, Lehigh and Northampton Chester, Delaware, and Montgomery.
Delco and Montco are lost. Biden will do well there for sure, but Bucks, Lehigh, and Northampton have seen voter registration trends tilt Republican. It might be another situation, where the Philly area simply won’t be enough to counter the red wave outside of the city. Capital-Star noted that conservative Democrats in the state are finally jumping ship and becoming Republicans whilst soft Trump voters are now having their ‘come to Jesus’ moment and decided to give the president another term in office. Yes, I’m pretty sure the endless rioting and lawlessness that Democrats have quasi-endorsed had some bearing on this trend.
“Neither of these events is particularly surprising,” they wrote. “Yet they underscore just how challenging flipping Pennsylvania will ultimately prove for the Democratic Party.”
The race isn’t a lock for Biden. Don’t believe the polls, folks. Biden cannot be 10 points ahead of Trump and have things be this difficult for him in the Keystone State.
But look to Bucks and Lackawanna on election night.