For me, it’s quite simple. The race is tightening up. The Republican National Convention gave Trump a bump. Independents are coming back to the president. Black and Hispanic voter support spiked for Trump. The economy is coming back. There’s a lot of wind at the back of the Trump campaign. The leftist rioting that’s raged all summer hasn’t helped either and it’s seeping into focus groups. It’s making the Democratic House ever more vulnerable overall. In the six most competitive House districts, the Republican leads by 10 points; the Democrats led by five in 2018. Yet, after the convention, a slew of polls showed Biden in the lead nationally, they showed no bump, they showed, this, that, and the other to deflate the GOP enthusiasm which is sky-high for Trump. Yet, how can Trump be tied with Biden in Michigan and North Carolina—and the former VP holding a near double-digit lead? What’s going on here?
Also, I see a lot of liberal writers tweeting almost identical polling results nationally and from key states that mirror the 2016 election. How did that turn out for Democrats? They’re oversampling Democrats and they’re still using registered voter models. They’re crap. And this is coming from a media establishment that overall hates the president. It’s no shock why you haven’t heard about the ten-point shift in Trump’s direction that’s occurred in Florida or the fact that Rasmussen found Black voter support for Trump hovering at around 27 percent in Pennsylvania. That’s a killer for Democrats—and in a key state to boot.
A 10% shift towards Trump in 6 weeks https://t.co/sFc3zejX9U— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) September 3, 2020
This poll shows 27% of Blacks in Pennsylvania supporting Trump: https://t.co/uSxCgVO88k— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) September 3, 2020
Presidential approval on September 2 of respective re-election years according to Rasmussen Reports:— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) September 2, 2020
Trump (2020): 49%
Obama (2012): 48%
Those are winning numbers: https://t.co/EVLmBCcytF— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) September 2, 2020
An interesting thread by David Chapman on Twitter pretty much lays out what many Republicans and Trump supporters have noted about the polling. It’s worth a read:
THREAD:— David Chapman (@davidchapman141) September 2, 2020
Why should we believe the polls are wrong again?
1. All the polls that were right in 2016 show a different race than the polls that failed in 2016. Democracy Institute, Rasmussen, Trafalgar, Zogby, Emerson, all show a different race than the other polls.
2. The methods of pollsters. It's September and so many polls are registered voter polls. At this time in 2016, many polls were LV polls.— David Chapman (@davidchapman141) September 2, 2020
Also, we went through 6 weeks where we had almost no polls. This was also a period where Trump started his comeback.
In the last week, the media started talking about how the riots are hurting Biden in the polls. Still no public polls to show this "tightening." Today, the polls look like Biden is running away with the race. So why has the media Been panicking about the polls?— David Chapman (@davidchapman141) September 2, 2020
The media behavior is very suspect. Also the Biden campaign behavior.— David Chapman (@davidchapman141) September 2, 2020
5. The Media has given us no reason to trust them again. They peddled the Russia hoax. They peddled Ukraine. The post office hoax.
Why would the media commit to honesty in an election year where the guy they have tried to destroy for 4 years is trying to win reelection?— David Chapman (@davidchapman141) September 2, 2020
6. We've seen the polls bias. 538 listed Trump's Emerson approval at 48% when it was 49%. That's real petty.
We have seen the bias. Fox news hired Donna Brazile. We've seen the bias. The media has given us no reason to believe them. We are suppose to believe that a guy that hides in the basement is up 7 points nationally? And up 9 in AZ?— David Chapman (@davidchapman141) September 2, 2020
Biden is rushing to Kenosha after Trump visited Kenosha...but we are supposed to believe Biden is up 8 in WI!!!!!— David Chapman (@davidchapman141) September 2, 2020
The Biden campaign has avoid the press as much as possible. Biden took questions today....but we are supposed to believe Biden is up 7 nationally.
If Biden is up 7 nationally, than why does Morning Consult have Trump up 5 points in Ohio? Both things can not be true. If Biden is up 7 nationally, why is trump leading in Iowa???? If Biden is up 7, why do so many polls show Trump leading in NC?— David Chapman (@davidchapman141) September 2, 2020
If Biden is up 7 points nationally, than why is Minnesota so competitive????— David Chapman (@davidchapman141) September 2, 2020
The state polls don't say Biden is up 7 points nationally!!!
The polls are crap and the media is gaslighting!!!!!!
That is why we shouldn't believe the polls. Because of common sense.
“If Biden is up 7 nationally, then why does Morning Consult have Trump up 5 points in Ohio? Both things cannot be true. If Biden is up 7 nationally, why is Trump leading in Iowa???? If Biden is up 7, why do so many polls show Trump leading in NC?”
True. And yes, there is a tightening going on, more than that actually in some surveys. Chapman adds, “Biden is spending money in MN, NV, ME, & NH. All states Hillary won. But we are supposed to believe the polls? When Obama won by 7 in 2008, he nearly won MO. Biden is up 7, but Trump is up 11 in MO. If Biden was up 7 nationally, why isn't MO competitive?”
I hate to say this, but it may be that liberal activist Michael Moore has a better read on the national mood than these so-called pollsters. Moore sounded the alarm that Trump is on track to win the 2020 election, as Trump and Biden are now neck-and-neck in Michigan. Again, the voter enthusiasm is all with Trump, not Biden. Also, in more left-leaning polling surveys, if Trump is within single-digits of Biden, he’s certainly within striking distance. And with the rioting, the debates, the economy coming back, voter enthusiasm, and Biden’s hiding strategy, the race is closer, much closer. And after that joke he made in Kenosha recently, which has been ravaged by leftist mayhem, I can see why his people kept him in the basement.
Deep down, Democrats know Biden is on shaky ground. It’s not sewn up at all. You should never count Trump out this far out from Election Day. The Biden team found that out the hard way. The GOP convention dropped a bunker buster on their “wait out the clock” approach. Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth. So, in all, folks, be skeptical of these polls, as I’m sure you already are given what happened in 2016. This isn’t the 2018 midterms. The base is firmly behind Trump and he’s on the ballot this year. Also, there definitely appears to be a shy Trump contingent out there.
‘The Sleepers’ are waking up, but they’re being smart and not letting their super ‘woke’ soy boy lib neighbors know as well as national pollsters.