He tried to be the canary in the coal mine in 2016. Liberal activist Michael Moore said he wouldn’t be shocked if Trump won in 2016. In fact, he gave five reasons why during that cycle, while repeating his prediction that Trump would win on HBO’s Real Time with Bill Maher, which probably shocked audiences. He’s a Michigan native. As Beth wrote for VIP, he noted the “off the charts” enthusiasm for Trump could be the ticket to a second term:
Mikey knew in 16. He knows now.
— Larry Schweikart (@LarrySchweikart) August 29, 2020
Michael Moore warns of 2016 repeat: Enthusiasm for Trump 'off the charts' https://t.co/R0C0lbPFQo
Sorry to have to provide the reality check again, but when CNN polled registered voters in August in just the swing states, Biden and Trump were in a virtual tie. In Minnesota, it’s 47-47. In Michigan, where Biden had a big lead, Trump has closed the gap to 4 points. Are you ready for a Trump victory? Are you mentally prepared to be outsmarted by Trump again? Do you find comfort in your certainty that there is no way Trump can win? Are you content with the trust you’ve placed in the DNC to pull this off?"
[…]
The Biden campaign just announced he’ll be visiting a number of states— but not Michigan. Sound familiar? I’m warning you almost 10 weeks in advance," Moore explained. "The enthusiasm level for the 60 million in Trump’s base is OFF THE CHARTS! For Joe, not so much.
Not only that, but Biden is making a stop in reliably Democratic Pittsburgh to call Trump a monster of racism again. Our own Ellie Bufkin is in the Keystone State as well, but in the areas that will decide the election and, uh, let’s just say things aren’t looking too good for Joe. Be sure to catch her coverage this week on that subject. But a fresh set of polls do point to what Moore has been saying. For starters, Independent voters now break for Trump by a solid 10-point margin. If that holds, that’s the election right there. Even before the Republican National Convention was over, we saw the early signs of a Trump bump. The Morning Consult also noted that President Trump, while trailing in their model, is well within striking distance of Joe [emphasis mine]:
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President Donald Trump needed a convention bounce — and he got one, emerging from the Republican National Convention with an improved standing against Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden, fueled by gains among white voters and those in the suburbs, though he still trails the former vice president nationwide.
A new Morning Consult poll conducted Friday that asked 4,035 likely voters which candidate they would pick found Biden leading Trump by 6 percentage points, 50 percent to 44 percent. It marked a 4-point improvement from his standing heading into the convention on Aug. 23, when Biden led 52 percent to 42 percent. Friday’s poll had a 2-point margin of error, compared with a 1-point margin of error for responses gathered among 4,810 likely voters on Aug. 23.
Consult did say that support among black and Hispanic voters was lackluster, but a Hill-Harris poll shows a bump in support for the president with both groups:
President Trump's support among black voters rose 9 percentage points amid the Republican National Convention, a new Hill-HarrisX poll finds.
Twenty-four percent of registered black voters in the Aug. 22-25 survey, which included the first two days of the convention, said they approve of the job Trump is doing as president, while 76 percent said they disapprove.
That is up 9 points from the previous survey conducted Aug. 8-11, where the President received 15 percent support among this group.
The survey found support among Hispanic voters also grew by 2 percentage points, from 30 percent in the last poll to 32 percent in this most recent survey.
Betting odds are now virtually tied for the 2020 presidential election.
— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) August 30, 2020
• Biden: 50.6%
• Trump: 49.1%
Biden was leading 61-37 just one month ago.
???? https://t.co/ad6tOK1BHj pic.twitter.com/fYdjHK9iRi
National Poll Among Independents:
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) August 30, 2020
Trump 44% (+10)
Biden 34%@YouGovAmerica/@YahooNews, (8/27-28)
1). BREAKING: Democracy Institute shows Trump up nationally and in battlegrounds:
— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) August 30, 2020
National Popular Vote:
Trump 48
Biden 45
Battlegrounds of FL, IA, MI, MN, PA
Trump 49
Biden 42
Trump got 8 percent of black vote in 2016. I’ve been predicting 11-13 percent in 2020. I’m thinking he could get 14-16 percent now.
— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) August 28, 2020
MICHIGAN
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) August 28, 2020
Trump 47% (+2)
Biden 45%
Jorgensen 3%
.#MIsen:
James (R) 48% (+1)
Peters (D-inc) 47%@trafalgar_group, LV, 8/14-23
1) IMO, the straightest path to 270 EVs for Trump (Core 3 + 1)* (Read from bottom-up):
— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) August 29, 2020
"+ 1": MN (10); WI 10; MI 16; PA (20)
ELECTORAL VICTORY (270)
"Core 3": NC, FL, AZ (55) thus 260 EVs
2016 Trump states very likely re-won (205)
Florida is likely going to count its votes fast on Nov 3... Models I look at suggest Biden's chance of winning the prez if he wins FL is ~95%. It drops below 50% if he loses FL.
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) August 29, 2020
Meanwhile, Democracy Institute has Trump taking the lead nationally, including some key battleground states, like Florida. CNN’s Harry Enten was quite blunt regarding the importance of the Sunshine State for both camps. Should Biden lose that state, and I think he will, his chances of winning the presidency dip dramatically; Enten places his chances of winning art under 50 percent should that happen. The surge in battleground states, national polls, the bump with non-white voters, and the fact that the betting odds are now tied between the two candidates, whereas Biden led 60-37 a month ago, all points to the Trump campaign undergoing a turnaround. People are waking up, they’re paying more attention, and the rioting is being ignored by Democrats at their peril. Oh, and did I forget that we still have three debates. Never count out Trump when he’s down. Period. And the fact that he’s within single digits of Biden in some of these liberal polls now shows the race might be closer than it is since the oversampling of Democrats has been glaring here.
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