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What the Hell Is Going on With the National Polling? Maybe This Twitter Thread Can Clear Things Up.

Matt Vespa
Matt Vespa  |  September 03, 2020 6:25 PM

For me, it’s quite simple. The race is tightening up. The Republican National Convention gave Trump a bump. Independents are coming back to the president. Black and Hispanic voter support spiked for Trump. The economy is coming back. There’s a lot of wind at the back of the Trump campaign. The leftist rioting that’s raged all summer hasn’t helped either and it’s seeping into focus groups. It’s making the Democratic House ever more vulnerable overall. In the six most competitive House districts, the Republican leads by 10 points; the Democrats led by five in 2018. Yet, after the convention, a slew of polls showed Biden in the lead nationally, they showed no bump, they showed, this, that, and the other to deflate the GOP enthusiasm which is sky-high for Trump. Yet, how can Trump be tied with Biden in Michigan and North Carolina—and the former VP holding a near double-digit lead? What’s going on here?

Also, I see a lot of liberal writers tweeting almost identical polling results nationally and from key states that mirror the 2016 election. How did that turn out for Democrats? They’re oversampling Democrats and they’re still using registered voter models. They’re crap. And this is coming from a media establishment that overall hates the president. It’s no shock why you haven’t heard about the ten-point shift in Trump’s direction that’s occurred in Florida or the fact that Rasmussen found Black voter support for Trump hovering at around 27 percent in Pennsylvania. That’s a killer for Democrats—and in a key state to boot. 

An interesting thread by David Chapman on Twitter pretty much lays out what many Republicans and Trump supporters have noted about the polling. It’s worth a read:

“If Biden is up 7 nationally, then why does Morning Consult have Trump up 5 points in Ohio? Both things cannot be true. If Biden is up 7 nationally, why is Trump leading in Iowa???? If Biden is up 7, why do so many polls show Trump leading in NC?”

True. And yes, there is a tightening going on, more than that actually in some surveys. Chapman adds, “Biden is spending money in MN, NV, ME, & NH. All states Hillary won. But we are supposed to believe the polls? When Obama won by 7 in 2008, he nearly won MO. Biden is up 7, but Trump is up 11 in MO. If Biden was up 7 nationally, why isn't MO competitive?”

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I hate to say this, but it may be that liberal activist Michael Moore has a better read on the national mood than these so-called pollsters. Moore sounded the alarm that Trump is on track to win the 2020 election, as Trump and Biden are now neck-and-neck in Michigan. Again, the voter enthusiasm is all with Trump, not Biden. Also, in more left-leaning polling surveys, if Trump is within single-digits of Biden, he’s certainly within striking distance. And with the rioting, the debates, the economy coming back, voter enthusiasm, and Biden’s hiding strategy, the race is closer, much closer. And after that joke he made in Kenosha recently, which has been ravaged by leftist mayhem, I can see why his people kept him in the basement.  

Deep down, Democrats know Biden is on shaky ground. It’s not sewn up at all. You should never count Trump out this far out from Election Day. The Biden team found that out the hard way. The GOP convention dropped a bunker buster on their “wait out the clock” approach. Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth. So, in all, folks, be skeptical of these polls, as I’m sure you already are given what happened in 2016. This isn’t the 2018 midterms. The base is firmly behind Trump and he’s on the ballot this year. Also, there definitely appears to be a shy Trump contingent out there. 

‘The Sleepers’ are waking up, but they’re being smart and not letting their super ‘woke’ soy boy lib neighbors know as well as national pollsters.