Antifa Effect? Yes, the Rioting Is Starting to Impact the House Races

Matt Vespa | September 03, 2020 11:45 AM

Is Black Lives Matter, Antifa, and the violent far-left actually giving a massive in-kind contribution to Republicans this election cycle? Maybe. The non-stop rioting in the cities, especially along the Left Coast and now in Kenosha, Wisconsin is starting to show up in the polling. It’s the reason why Joe Biden had to come out of his bunker after the Republican National Convention; the event mentioned the rioting. It’s why CNN’s Chris Cuomo and Don Lemon, who endorsed the violence, said it was now time to settle down because…it was hurting Democrats.

Donald Trump is now leading with Independents by ten points, Black and Hispanic voters support for Trump spiked after the GOP convention, and the national race is tightening up. Trump is tied with Biden in Michigan—and enthusiasm for Trump with his base is sky-high. Joe Biden is not fairing so well with Democrats on that front. They know he sucks.

While two months ago, the retaking the house might have seemed like a stretch, but if these lefty clowns keep burning buildings, assaulting cops, and forcing Democratic mayors to flee their residences, then it could be within reach. Patrick Murray commented on Monmouth’s polling of the House races and found that in the six most competitive contests this cycle, the generic Republican is ahead by 10 points [emphasis mine]:

The Monmouth University Poll also posed a generic ballot test for the U.S. House of Representatives election, which shows 48% of registered voters currently supporting the Democratic candidate in their district and 45% backing the Republican. This result stood at a similar 49% to 45% in Monmouth’s July poll. Applying likely voter models to the current sample, high turnout puts the statewide vote choice at 48% Democrat and 46% Republican while low turnout has it at 48% Democrat and 47% Republican.
In 12 congressional districts where the winning margin for either party was greater than 15 points in 2018, the Democrats lead by 8 points (51% to 43%). In the six most competitive districts, though, the Republicans lead by 10 points (50% to 40%). In July, the Democrats held small leads in both the safe seats (49% to 46%) and the competitive ones (48% to 43%).
“Republican gains on the generic ballot in competitive seats should worry Democrats. Only district-level polling can tell if this is because GOP incumbents are bulking up their margins or if GOP challengers are eating into support for Democratic incumbents…”