To continue with an ongoing theme, the polling is not looking especially great for the Harris campaign lately. National trends must be concerning for Democrats, particularly among some traditionally blue-aligned demographics. CNN's polling guru just said that the numbers suggest "Donald Trump's going to put up the best performance with Black voters since Richard Nixon in 1960...among Hispanic voters, Donald Trump's going to put up the best performance for a Republican since 2004." We have indications that some of their internal polling may look worse than what public surveys are showing. And some of the big picture data metrics also appear to represent major red flags, especially when placed in recent historical context. Battleground state surveys show an incredibly tight race, suggesting that it's a coin-flip contest. This dynamic could accrue to Democrats' advantage, if the polling is correct, because of their superior ballot operation and turnout machine -- and the fact that they have become the party of the highest-propensity voters.
But is the polling correct? As we've written multiple times, if we see anything close to the misses of 2016 and 2020, that would bode rather well for the Trump campaign. This chart provides a handy visual aid in underscoring the point:
This is why the Harris-Walz campaign is panicking right now. pic.twitter.com/BpVFElQKnz
— Matt Margolis (@mattmargolis) October 11, 2024
I don't know how the election will turn out. I do know that the Trump campaigns from the previous two cycles would have taken these mid-October battleground numbers in a heartbeat:
#NEW PENNSYLVANIA poll
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 13, 2024
🔴 Trump: 47% (=)
🔵 Harris: 47%@J_L_Partners | Oct. 5-8 | N=800LV
CBS News Battleground-state estimates
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 13, 2024
Arizona - 🔴 Trump 50-49%
North Carolina - 🔴 Trump 50-49%
Georgia - 🔴 Trump 50-49%
Pennsylvania - 🟡 Tie 49-49%
Wisconsin - 🟡 Tie 49-49%
Nevada - 🔵 Harris 50-48%
Michigan - 🔵 Harris 50-48%
Estimates updated on 10/12 | ±4%…
This poll has Trump and Harris tied across the 7 battleground states, 49%-49%. But, it's Ipsos. https://t.co/ClFacBUer3
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 13, 2024
Ipsos, for reference, has been an especially Trump-negative pollster, so a battleground tie in their data is notable. The 2016 and 2020 iterations of the Trump campaign -- who were trailing in the RCP national average by seven and ten points around this point in those cycles -- would also absolutely take numbers like this in a nanosecond:
New Trump-Harris numbers in NBC poll --
— Josh Kraushaar (@JoshKraushaar) October 13, 2024
Trump 48
Harris 48
down from Harris' 5-pt lead last month.
More to come... https://t.co/Demf2aGlnA
🇺🇲 NATIONAL POLL: @NBCNews
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 13, 2024
2-WAY
🟥 Trump: 48% [+4]
🟦 Harris: 48% [-1]
FULL FIELD
🟥 Trump: 47% [+6]
🟦 Harris: 46% [-1]
🟨 RFK Jr: 2%
🟩 Stein: 1%
🟪 Oliver: 1%
——
Generic Ballot
🟦 DEM: 47% [-1]
🟥 GOP: 47% [+1]
[+/- change vs 9/13-17]
——
October 4-8 | 1,000 RV | ±3.1%… pic.twitter.com/dbtslWxSFP
NBC Poll: Impression of Candidates
— Steve Kornacki (@SteveKornacki) October 13, 2024
Trump
Positive 43%
Negative 51%
Harris
Positive 43%
Negative 49%
----
Last month:
Trump
Positive 40%
Negative 53%
Harris
Positive 48%
Negative 45%
🇺🇲 NATIONAL POLL by Pew Research
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 10, 2024
🟦 Kamala Harris: 48%
🟥 Donald Trump: 47%
🟪 Another cand: 5%
——
• White: Trump 55-41%
• Black: Harris 79-14%
• Hispanic: Harris 54-38%
• Asian: Harris 62-30%
---
• Male: Trump 51-43%
• Female: Harris 52-43%
---
• Ages 18-29: Harris… pic.twitter.com/Z8GQl8tjgb
Trump virtually tied, or possibly even slightly ahead, on a national scale would portend very dark things for the Democrats, if it's borne out in reality by voters. As a point of reference, NBC's mid-October survey gave Biden an 11-point lead over Trump in 2020. Their final poll of that race put the margin at ten points. Biden won by four-and-a-half points. Meanwhile, is it possible that JD Vance's debate victory made something of an impact? A fresh CBS poll shows that 35 percent of respondents said that the Vice Presidential forum made them more likely to support the GOP ticket, while only 30 percent said the same of the Democratic ticket. Speaking of Vance, he continues to excel in interview settings, deftly turning this question on illegal immigrant crime back against ABC's host yesterday:
Vance to ABC moderator: 'Do you hear yourself?' https://t.co/9Y9IR5QGZI
— Byron York (@ByronYork) October 13, 2024
"Do you hear yourself" is the perfect reply to a question framed and premised the way it was. Finally, on the polling, it appears the talking point has gone out -- from liberal New York Times columnists to the Obama pod bros. Hmmm:
Bat signal is up pic.twitter.com/tXINpnwI9a
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) October 13, 2024
