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Why Team Trump Is Smiling – and So Are Democrats

Guy Benson
Guy Benson | July 25, 2023 1:05 PM
AP Photo/John Locher

A slate of new polls contains more good news for Donald Trump's 2024 GOP primary campaign but offers more warning signs about his viability in a general election. 

Fresh surveys from Fox Business Network in Iowa and South Carolina show the former president leading by dominant margins, crushing the closest intra-party competition by 30 or more points in each of the two states. Here are the top-line findings:


There are other components of the poll to dissect, like a majority of South Carolina Republican voters saying a candidate skipping a debate would be a sign of weakness, not strength – and Ron DeSantis standing as the clear leader in backup choices among Trump supporters. I've also seen people noting a bit of a Tim Scott surge in Iowa, with Nikki Haley edging into a distant second place in her home state. The overwhelming takeaway, however, is that Trump is the very heavy GOP favorite, despite (or because of) the raft of existing and looming legal trouble he faces. No one else is close at the moment. I wrote last week that for Ron DeSantis to eat away at Trump's lead, he'll need to consolidate the non-Trump vote and win over a sizable chunk of "soft" Trump backers. Based on these surveys, the Florida governor is doing neither of those things right now.

Meanwhile, with another indictment or two likely coming Trump's way, the former president's image among the wider electorate has taken another distinctly negative slide. He's been back in the news, quite a lot, and his favorability rating is even worse than Joe Biden's dreadfully bad number:


One thing I've noticed in the Biden-Trump rematch polling is despite the margins bouncing around (most show Biden ahead, a few surveys are tied, Trump leads in a handful), the former president's vote share is remarkably consistent. It lands in the 40-45 percent range against Biden:  


For reference, Trump won less than 47 percent of the national vote in 2020, losing by four points. The national polling average slightly overstated Biden's victory margin, but they were generally correct. The national polls were almost exactly bang-on in 2022. None of this means that a Trump general election win is impossible. Events could align for another upset victory, as they did in 2016 – especially if widely-unpopular "Bidenomics" delivers a recession. But against such a weak incumbent, it stands to reason that the opposition party could increase its chances of victory substantially by nominating someone other than a universally known and polarizing figure who lost the same head-to-head contest last time, and whose personal favorability is 20-30 points underwater. DeSantis supporters contend their guy is the smarter bet, citing data like this:


Perhaps they're right, but to test that proposition, DeSantis has to prevail in the primaries. I'll refer you back to the numbers above. Finally, if the Democrats end up going the distance with Biden and Harris (think about the likelihood of a Harris presidency), it's not just conceivable but very likely that they will attempt the 2024 version of the basement strategy: 


It's not really that wild, in the sense that...it worked. They made the last election about the incumbent, got out of the way, and won. That will be harder to pull off in a non-pandemic setting, and with Biden as the incumbent, but they'll try. The midterm outcomes suggest it could again be a successful approach. The idea will be to let the other guy stand in the limelight and consume most of the political oxygen, and subject voters to the unpopular incumbents (who don't help themselves when they speak) as little as possible. It's not at all far-fetched to envision them just letting all this play out, month after month:


Trump's legal thicket could have a double benefit, from Democrats' perspective: The indictments could further ingratiate the former president to the Republican base, guaranteeing his nomination, then the drama surrounding the trials and other related wrangling could dominate the general election season. Democrats would prefer to run against Trump again because they think that would maximize their chances to win. This is therefore all welcome news to them. And most of the "news" media will do everything in its collective power to keep the spotlight on Trump-related controversies and scandals while ignoring and downplaying the sitting president's serious ethical vulnerabilities. That's corrupt and unfair, but it's also reality. Relatedly, I'll leave you with this:


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