It's being called a "reset" and a "reboot" by various media outlets. The campaign may dispute those characterizations (they may prefer 'growing pains'), but the terms seem to apply to some extent, as Team DeSantis pivots on several fronts. His team has cut some of its sprawling staff and is reducing expenditures, while also sitting down for interviews beyond its previous diet of curated outlets -- including with CNN's Jake Tapper and on Megyn Kelly's podcast. The Florida Governor acquitted himself well with Tapper yesterday afternoon, offering focused and cogent answers on a host of issue, ranging from new potential legal trouble for former President Trump to military recruitment concerns to trans athletes competing in women's sports. He is seeking to build and keep momentum that has backslid in recent weeks, during which Trump's GOP primary lead has expanded both nationally and in a number of states. He's been floating in the low-to-mid 20's, basically stagnant, while Trump garners majority support. That's a commanding lead.
It's true that no one else in the field has cracked into double digits, even as some are starting to spend serious money, ahead of next month's first GOP presidential debate of the cycle -- which Trump may or may not even attend. Others won't even qualify for that forum. But running a steady but distant second place isn't going to cut it for DeSantis, and the frozen state of play only benefits the frontrunner. The Tallahassee-based campaign has run distinctly to Trump's right, probing for the 45th president's vulnerabilities. While they may have material to work with on COVID policies, for instance, running a dogmatic right-wing campaign may not pay the sort of dividends they're hoping for. This is (with important differences, of course, including governing records) somewhat akin to the 2016 Ted Cruz approach, which resulted in a loss. I'm not sure if coming across as more doctrinaire, more 'Online,' and less mainstream or normal than Trump (see this, this and this) on a number of fronts is a ticket to success.
DeSantis' star skyrocketed because of his excellent, focused, economically-triumphant governance in Florida, culminating in a positivity-infused re-election bid and a victory of historic proportions. DeSantis can't run a general election campaign yet, for self-explanatory reasons, but channeling more of what got him to this point, rather than pounding away on the relentlessly right-wing 'culture war' issues might be in order. He can't and shouldn't shy away from some of those cultural battles, but perhaps they've been over-emphasized. Ultimately, regardless of tactics and messaging, DeSantis -- or anyone who wants to seriously challenge Trump -- will need to achieve two things: (1) Consolidate the Trump-skeptical elements of the Republican-leaning electorate, and (2) win over some sizable swath of Trump supporters. The former task will be difficult, but could become easier if any when the field is significantly culled ahead of the start of voting next year. The latter job will require connecting with and winning over many more voters exactly like this one:
🚨 Stop what you’re doing and watch this 🚨
— DeSantis War Room 🐊 (@DeSantisWarRoom) July 17, 2023
A self-described “very hardcore Trump supporter” reacts to @RonDeSantis speech in South Carolina today…
“My love for President Trump comes from all the despair, all the things that he's been through, has served as our president of… pic.twitter.com/P6Kw4X4fNK
That is the voice of a Trump loyalist who just isn't convinced he can win again, or be effective if he does. DeSantis' response is basically pitch perfect: ("But here's the thing -- the question for us now is what are we going to do about it? It's not about me; it's about you, and standing up for you...We will be focused, we will be disciplined, and we will make it happen"). They might want to seriously consider turning the exchange into an ad. And even though it will frustrate the fraction of right-leaning voters who want Republicans to take a tougher line against Trump, this is a smart way to answer a question about yet another looming indictment -- especially the bit about needing to look forward, versus constantly relitigating previous fights and dramas:
WATCH: @RonDeSantis on restoring a single standard of justice in America.
— DeSantis War Room 🐊 (@DeSantisWarRoom) July 18, 2023
“So here’s the problem: this country is going down the road of criminalizing political differences. I think that's wrong. Alvin Bragg stretched the statute in Manhattan to be able to try to target Donald… pic.twitter.com/7ukocloS57
Overall: On one hand, the Iowa caucuses are roughly half-a-year away, and drawing any definitive conclusions this early is premature and foolish. Plenty of people on the Left, and in the Trump camp, would love to write DeSantis' 2024 obituary as soon as possible, and we all know why. On the other hand, Trump's chances of becoming the nominee have increased further lately, and DeSantis will need to show positive movement at some point in the relatively near future. He's not going to take a giant bite out of Trump's 30-plus-point national lead overnight. But the more manageable and important goal is to build toward a successful outcome in Iowa and cement a 'two-man race' storyline coming out of the first three states. If Trump sweeps the first three states, which is entirely plausible, it's over. Depending on what survey you look at, Trump is either comfortably ahead in the Hawkeye State, or it's a competitive fight. The DeSantis camp is going to pour itself into Iowa, which it basically must win. This new poll out of New Hampshire should also provide some optimism for the Florida Governor's team:
New: UNH poll of NH primary GOP voters
— James Pindell (@JamesPindell) July 18, 2023
Trump: 37
DeSantis: 23
Scott: 8
Christie: 6
Burgum: 6
Ramaswamy: 5
Haley: 5
Pence: 1
Hurd: 1
Trump down 5% since April in UNH poll.
— Zach Montanaro (@ZachMontanaro) July 18, 2023
DeSantis has the highest favorability of the GOP field, and is voters' top 2nd choice.
Meanwhile, 18% say they wouldn't vote for Trump "under any circumstances." Only 4% say that for DeSantis.@RonDeSantis can and will win! #nhpolitics pic.twitter.com/oS2rLG0mXF
That's a double-digit Trump lead, yes, but it's not the same intimidating margin seen elsewhere. DeSantis has the best favorability number in the field, is the most popular second option among Granite State primary voters -- and just four percent say they'd never support him (compared to 18 percent who say so about Trump), suggesting that he still has substantial room to grow into a consensus option. (I find this data point interesting). That's all encouraging data for a campaign in need of some encouragement right now. Nevertheless, the bottom line remains: Trump sits as the clear favorite for the nomination and has the cleanest path to victory. DeSantis has a path, but it's going to be a bit of a heavy lift and will need to show more tangible promise, fairly soon. If anyone else has a viable path, it's not readily apparent to me at the moment. Any or all of that may change in the coming months, but that's my view of where things stand in mid-summer 2023. I'll leave you with a major reason why Republican voters like the woman in the video above, who want to win, need to think long and hard about whether the chances of victory would be enhanced or depressed with Trump at the top of the ticket:
Trump’s national unfavorable rating has risen to its highest point since the aftermath of Jan. 6, 2021, according to the @FiveThirtyEight polling average. https://t.co/C3KoX97zuY pic.twitter.com/upVwrQalvn
— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) July 18, 2023
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