The President of the United States has technically been a declared candidate for re-election for more than a month at this point, yet he's done virtually nothing at all in pursuit of that goal. Axios reported recently that some Biden aides are growing frustrated and concerned by the lack of, well, anything: "Some White House officials say it's difficult to schedule public or private events with the president in the morning, in the evening, or on weekends: The vast majority of Biden’s public events happen on weekdays, between 10 a.m. and 4 p.m." And that's on the official side. On the campaign side, we've seen even less. Team Biden dropped an announcement video weeks ago and they've been functionally out of sight and out of mind ever since.
Fox's Peter Doocy asked the White House whether Biden intends to campaign at all, resulting in this exchange:
DOOCY: "Is President Biden gonna hold a campaign event EVER...?!"
— Townhall.com (@townhallcom) May 30, 2023
KJP: "I'm just not going to comment from here..." pic.twitter.com/7HqNBPfLHt
First off, it's pretty rich for this administration's top spokesperson to posture about being such a conscientious stickler for the "rule of law," which is how Karine Jean Pierre tried to frame this response. But on this narrow point, she's right that the Hatch Act is designed to prevent cross-pollination between explicitly political operations and governmental functions. It's reasonable for her to decline to comment on questions that are really in the realm of the Biden campaign. But I suspect the thought process behind the relative radio silence from the campaign is very much intentional: (1) There isn't much good news to share, including on online fundraising (and high dollar funding), and (2) they're keeping a very low profile by design. This is an unpopular president whose own party isn't excited that he's running again. When he speaks, he rarely helps himself, and often does the opposite (for reasons that are painfully obvious to virtually all observers). The same is true of his running mate. Only 18 percent of Americans are satisfied with the state of the country. A super-majority of voters say a Biden re-election would represent a "setback" or a "disaster."
The Biden crew therefore wants to keep their heads down and do their best to execute an updated, post-pandemic simulacrum of the successful 2020 basement strategy. Assuming he actually goes through with this race, Biden will do some campaigning. He'll have some rallies, he'll agree to occasional interviews, he'll raise money, etc. But it'll be a very light schedule. Much of the rhetorical heavy lifting will be done by surrogates. And the purpose of all of this will be to reverse the dynamic from last time. In 2020, they wanted the election to be a referendum on the incumbent. In 2024, they want to avoid a referendum on the incumbent; better yet, they'd love to make it a referendum on the challenger. That task could be easier or harder, depending on who the challenger is. If it's someone who will spur disenchanted Biden voters to turn out, sigh deeply, and pull the lever again -- because they just cannot stand the other guy -- all the better, from their perspective:
None of our participants thought Biden was a strong leader.
— Kristen Soltis Anderson (@KSoltisAnderson) May 31, 2023
None thought he’d be up to the task of being president through 2028.
But none would pick Trump over Biden if we wound up with a rematch. https://t.co/E9FxxviHhh
Right now, the Biden campaign finds utility in keeping an exceptionally low profile for the lackluster and disliked members of their ticket, instead allowing all of the political oxygen to be sucked up by what they hope is an ugly GOP primary. And they very obviously have a strategic rooting interest in seeing the current frontrunner win the nomination again. The Democrats' midterms strategy largely worked, especially where they could put their finger on the scale to help pick their general election opponents. They won every single race in which they successfully did so. There's a reason why Biden's 2024 rollout video featured January 6th and dark fear-mongering, rather than a sunny, optimistic, proud message about popular accomplishments:
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Every generation has a moment where they have had to stand up for democracy. To stand up for their fundamental freedoms. I believe this is ours.
— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) April 25, 2023
That’s why I’m running for reelection as President of the United States. Join us. Let’s finish the job. https://t.co/V9Mzpw8Sqy pic.twitter.com/Y4NXR6B8ly
They have a playbook that succeeded in 2018, 2020, and 2022. They believe it will work again in 2024. They may not be right, especially if the economy is in worse shape next year, but their approach is logical at the very least -- and Republican voters need to decide whether to play into the plan, or to turn it on its head. I'll leave you with this:
DOOCY: "How's your re-election campaign going? Because we haven't seen you on the campaign trail yet."
— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) May 31, 2023
BIDEN: "You haven't?"
DOOCY: "Not at an official campaign rally..."
BIDEN: *walks away* pic.twitter.com/Y28eLWlRFK
Biden wasn't headed to the beach in Delaware this time, if you can believe it.
