Robert Francis O'Rourke has been a busy man for the last four years. He took on Sen. Ted Cruz in the blue wave year of 2018, raised a stunning sum of money, then lost fairly narrowly. Shortly thereafter, he declared that he'd be laying low for awhile, and certainly would not run for president in the 2020 cycle. Why? "Our family could not survive" that, he said, quoting his son saying he'd cry every day if his father sought the White House. And then he did it anyway, veering wildly to the left and declaring he was "born" to be in the race. Despite glossy magazine covers and media fanfare, he never broke through. Another loss. Casting about for the next thing to do with his life, O'Rourke decided to challenge Gov. Greg Abbott, pulling all sorts of stunts and flip-flops to try to have a chance.
How's that working out?
🚨 TEXAS POLL By University of Houston
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) November 1, 2022
GOV
(R) Greg Abbott 53% (+13)
(D) Beto O'Rourke 40%
LT GOV
(R) Dan Patrick 51% (+15)
(D) Mike Collier 36%
AG
(R) Ken Paxton 49% (+12)
(D) Rochelle Garza 37%https://t.co/p5kfitqrxc
I asked political guru and Texan Karl Rove about the race, and he said he expected a win for Abbott in the ballpark of 10 percentage points. That would be a solid victory, but not as lopsided as Abbott's 2014 shellacking of Wendy Davis, who was most famous for being a late-term abortion enthusiast. Rove told me he's heard buzz that O'Rourke is already looking at his next race, having not lost his current one just yet. It seems he may be considering running for mayor of El Paso, which might be an easier lift than his recent string of failed endeavors. Here is our full interview, including Rove's bird's eye view of what he believes is coming in six days, across the country:
Rove predicts GOP takeover of House & Senate. "All the dynamics are going our way:"https://t.co/effd1oNBjC
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) November 1, 2022
Astoundingly, there's a reasonable chance Ron DeSantis will achieve a similar margin of victory in Florida as Abbott will in Texas, underscoring the red shift in the Sunshine State. Polling currently projects a DeSantis win in the range of a dozen points, which is breathtaking. I've openly admitted that it's been hard for me to imagine a double-digit margin in Florida, but four straight surveys point in that exact direction. What makes them easier to believe is the absolute doom playing out for Democrats in the state's early voting numbers. It's impossible to perfectly read EV tea leaves, and meaningful baselines are sometimes tricky to establish. But there's nothing ambiguous about how dreadful this is for the Democrats:
TOT VBM: 2058K, 42.9-37.2% D/R (+5.7%D)
— John Couvillon (@WinWithJMC) November 1, 2022
TOT IP: 1102K, 53.8-28.9% R/D (+24.9%R)
GRAND TOT: 3160K, 43.0-38.0% R/D
(2/2)
As of last evening, more than three million Floridians had voted, and Republicans led in the early vote totals by five percentage points. As a reminder, it's the EV numbers that have generally built up blue firewalls for Democrats, bracing for the impact of Election Day voting, which tends to skew heavily Republican. It seems highly likely that the Florida GOP will have already banked a sizable lead before November 8th, foretelling a very possible blowout. In case you missed it, here's Team DeSantis' closing message to voters. It's 100 percent positive, and features almost no words spoken in a minute-long television spot:
I’m proud to live in a state that exemplifies the best of America. We love our country, respect our flag, and proudly embrace our nation’s founding principles.
— Casey DeSantis (@CaseyDeSantis) November 1, 2022
We will continue to be the bastion of freedom for America. Keep Florida Free! pic.twitter.com/SsscoK4Od0
I'll leave you with a few additional morsels from key races around the country:
BREAKING: Survey from @WickInsights (A/B-rated from @FiveThirtyEight) of 1,089 likely Wisconsin voters from 10/26 to 10/30 finds Ron Johnson (R) with 4.1% lead over challenger Mandela Barnes (D) in #WISen.
— ⚜️ Ellen Carmichael ⚜️ (@ellencarmichael) November 1, 2022
JOHNSON (R): 50.2%
BARNES (D): 46.1%
SOMEONE ELSE: 1.6%
UNDECIDED: 2.1% pic.twitter.com/7VO5N5YrZ4
New Fox polling (RV):#WISen Johnson (R) +3#WIGov Michels (R) +1#AZGov Lake (R) +1#AZSen Kelly (D) +2
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) November 1, 2022
Surveys find the #'s barely different among the likeliest voters, with Johnson & Kelly races each a point closer.
"Can you look me in the face and tell me that government expenditures on green energy subsidies through the 'Inflation Reduction Act'...are in any way lessening my burden at the gas station and the grocery store?"
— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) November 1, 2022
Democrat Tim Ryan: "I could not say that." pic.twitter.com/z0l80u7QT0
Rep. Tim Ryan voted for literally every penny of that spending, and trillions more, as part of his 100 percent Biden/Pelosi record.
