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Tipsheet

Democrats Melting Down: GOP Flips Long-Held Blue Seat in Iowa Special Election

AP Photo/Alex Brandon

Happy Wednesday. How are things going for Democrats today? Let's review a handful of headlines. (1) Out of Iowa, a legislative seat that has been in Democratic hands for decades is no longer blue. Over the summer, Republicans won back a state senate seat in affluent, suburban, Trump-hostile Connecticut. Last night, they picked off a different sort of district. Trump carried it, but it had remained blue at the state legislative level, even in recent cycles with Trump on the ballot. Change

The decades of history is interesting, but let's look at the more recent past: This district went (62/38) blue in 2012. Then (51/38) in 2016. It shifted back to deeper blue territory in the Democratic wave year of 2018, only to become a three-point squeaker in 2020. In yesterday's special, the Republican won by a 20-point margin. 


(2) Retirement alert. This sort of exodus – a voluntary farewell from a powerful chairman in a safe seat – often presages an electoral rout. The writing appears on the wall, and people start heading for the exits


(3) Democrats in disarray. The infighting continues. I think this massive spending push will still get done on some level, but the acrimony is real and ongoing. And you know it's bad when the Democrats feel compelled to blame their allies in the press for their shortcomings. Carry more water: 


(4) How's the Biden economy looking? Inflation, supply chain problems, worker shortages: 


(5) Crisis watch, with thousands of Americans still stranded in Afghanistan, we have this update on another disastrous front


I'll leave you with this


If Glenn Youngkin pulls off the upset in Virginia next month, there will be a full-blown panic. Republicans are feeling fairly good about that race, but public polls still show McAuliffe slightly ahead – albeit with crosstabs that must have Democrats squirming. Enjoy your Wednesday. 

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