Democrats Melting Down: GOP Flips Long-Held Blue Seat in Iowa Special Election

Happy Wednesday. How are things going for Democrats today? Let's review a handful of headlines. (1) Out of Iowa, a legislative seat that has been in Democratic hands for decades is no longer blue. Over the summer, Republicans won back a state senate seat in affluent, suburban, Trump-hostile Connecticut. Last night, they picked off a different sort of district. Trump carried it, but it had remained blue at the state legislative level, even in recent cycles with Trump on the ballot. Change:

GOP legislative pickup in Iowa. Seat went 59/41 Dem in 2018 cycle. Dems had held it for decades. https://t.co/FHLO0donQA
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) October 13, 2021

The decades of history is interesting, but let's look at the more recent past: This district went (62/38) blue in 2012. Then (51/38) in 2016. It shifted back to deeper blue territory in the Democratic wave year of 2018, only to become a three-point squeaker in 2020. In yesterday's special, the Republican won by a 20-point margin.

(2) Retirement alert. This sort of exodus – a voluntary farewell from a powerful chairman in a safe seat – often presages an electoral rout. The writing appears on the wall, and people start heading for the exits:

YARMUTH IS RETIRING

The sole Kentucky democrat. Will be interesting to see who replaces him. https://t.co/G3RsfDvhI9
— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) October 12, 2021

(3) Democrats in disarray. The infighting continues. I think this massive spending push will still get done on some level, but the acrimony is real and ongoing. And you know it's bad when the Democrats feel compelled to blame their allies in the press for their shortcomings. Carry more water:

Sinema, to a D Senator: “I have already told the White House what I am willing to do and what I’m not willing to do. I'm not mysterious. It's not that I can't make up my mind. I communicated it to them in detail. They just don’t like what they’re hearing”https://t.co/yQAb2fWH4F
— Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) October 13, 2021

BREAKING: Inflation was up 5.4% over last year in September – the highest rate in 13 years.

Prices rose 0.4% in Sept, up from 0.3% in August

Gas, food and goods continue to be key drivers of inflation. Used car prices fell slightly but remain 24% higher than last year. pic.twitter.com/8cN1eHaBvQ
— Heather Long (@byHeatherLong) October 13, 2021

Going great, folks pic.twitter.com/EhAi1qNpj4
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) October 13, 2021

We are dealing with several very real crises right now. Serious labor shortage, border crisis, inflation etc.

Now ask yourself: How does the Democrats' current legislative agenda improve these situations? Or does it make them worse... https://t.co/tW5dpBpHLM
— AG (@AGHamilton29) October 12, 2021

(5) Crisis watch, with thousands of Americans still stranded in Afghanistan, we have this update on another disastrous front:

NEW/THREAD: According to Border Patrol documents provided by a source, the federal gov has released over 70,000 illegal immigrants into the U.S. since August 6, including 31,977 released via parole (temp legal status, eligible for work permits).
94,570 released via NTR since 3/20 pic.twitter.com/ag5OMsYw27
— Bill Melugin (@BillFOXLA) October 13, 2021

This is on top of the more than 400,000 known 'got-aways' that have entered the country illegally this year: https://t.co/Sd38EEfGed
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) October 13, 2021

I'll leave you with this:

Biden job approval rating in danger of crashing into 42% territory. pic.twitter.com/xeEr7LQXCT
— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) October 12, 2021

If Glenn Youngkin pulls off the upset in Virginia next month, there will be a full-blown panic. Republicans are feeling fairly good about that race, but public polls still show McAuliffe slightly ahead – albeit with crosstabs that must have Democrats squirming. Enjoy your Wednesday.